Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 19, 2019, 11:08:27 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 12 13 14 ... 22 Print
Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 103

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup  (Read 14930 times)
DaWN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 806
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #200 on: June 14, 2019, 12:02:03 pm »

I'm sure they were sweating about TN-SEN as well
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #201 on: June 14, 2019, 12:10:12 pm »

Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #202 on: June 14, 2019, 12:13:40 pm »

Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.

Even in October polls will "tighten" to Beshear +5 and then election day will shut down any confidence in Kentucky polling (if there is any left).
Logged
Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,467
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #203 on: June 14, 2019, 12:23:11 pm »
« Edited: June 14, 2019, 12:30:20 pm by IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ »

Bevin could have an approval rating of 10% and this forum would still call the race Safe R. Should be pretty obvious to everyone that he is in massive trouble.
Logged
You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
politicalmasta73
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,844
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #204 on: June 14, 2019, 12:23:41 pm »

The fact that the Kentucky GOP are actually sweating about this one gives me legitimate hope. Not a lot of it, but hope nonetheless.
Sadly, this is prolly just to get national rs and by extension Trumps attention.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #205 on: June 14, 2019, 12:35:08 pm »

Bevin could have an approval rating of 10% and this forum would still call the race Safe R. Should be pretty obvious to everyone that he is in massive trouble.

Less than 10% of this forum is calling this race Safe R.
Logged
Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,467
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #206 on: June 14, 2019, 01:25:11 pm »

Bevin could have an approval rating of 10% and this forum would still call the race Safe R. Should be pretty obvious to everyone that he is in massive trouble.

Less than 10% of this forum is calling this race Safe R.

Maybe itís because the Safe R KY posters are well... more "vocal" than the rest of the forum (just like the posters who kept telling us day after day that Moore was going to win AL-SEN no matter what), but I wouldnít be so sure that this yearís race will be a "redux" of KY 2015 when Bevin is far more unpopular than he was in 2015 (although still the same lousy candidate) and the national environment is worse for Republicans today than it was four years ago.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,858


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #207 on: June 14, 2019, 03:23:55 pm »

This poll reminds me of this D internal poll which gaves McGrath a 15 points lead

https://www.scribd.com/document/379922000/KY-06-DCCC-May-2018
Logged
Spenstar
Spenstar3D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,122
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #208 on: June 14, 2019, 04:34:48 pm »



If this is true, Bevin might actually be on track to lose in a landslide.

Big If True. It'd be so satisfying to see the land of mcconnell flip
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,930
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #209 on: June 14, 2019, 04:44:26 pm »

Pollsters insisting KY Statewide elections are solid R, arent correct. KY elected Grimes, Beshear SR and Paul Patton. Only Rand Paul and Mitch have been elected statewide, and GOP assembly worked with Democratic Governors
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #210 on: June 14, 2019, 06:36:53 pm »

Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.

Even in October polls will "tighten" to Beshear +5 and then election day will shut down any confidence in Kentucky polling (if there is any left).

If Beshear is consistently ahead all the way through to Election Day, I'd feel fairly confident saying he'll win. just because polls were off in 2015 doesn't mean they will be in 2019.
Logged
KYWildman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 994
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #211 on: June 15, 2019, 12:24:02 am »

If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #212 on: June 15, 2019, 12:46:37 am »

If Beshear is still ahead comfortably in October, I'll definitely believe that Bevin is in deep trouble. Until then, though, this is one reason why I'm hesitant to believe KY polling.
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #213 on: June 15, 2019, 01:12:28 am »

If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.

Dude calm your sh!t
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #214 on: June 15, 2019, 03:48:24 pm »

If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.

Dude calm your sh!t

Well, it'll make for some entertaining look back if/when Bevin wins.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,930
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #215 on: June 15, 2019, 04:09:30 pm »

KY have had Paul Patton and Beshear Sr as Govs, after the Ernie Fletcher failed governorship.  Bevin has the same approvals as Fletcher, Beshear Jr can win
Logged
Farmlands
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 286


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #216 on: June 15, 2019, 04:24:31 pm »
« Edited: June 16, 2019, 02:58:02 pm by Farmlands »

I'm sure they were sweating about TN-SEN as well

I'm sure that by June 2018, the polling was already noticeably and massively shifting in favour of Marsha Blackburn. There was even a poster who had it as their signature with the quote "dumber than Alabama".
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,853
Mexico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #217 on: June 15, 2019, 04:29:53 pm »
« Edited: June 15, 2019, 04:33:17 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »

John Bel Edwards is Governor of Louisiana. I'm not sure what would be so shocking about Bevin not being re-elected. He's made it more difficult to be diagnosed with Black Lung by revoking the licenses of many doctors, he's made it more difficult to receive workers compensation, which is always a big issue in coal country, he's passed Right to Work, he's insulted teachers, he tried to shred Medicaid etc. He's done everything in his power to alienate coal country and waged a war against the region.

It's not as if coal country is loyal to the Republican Party. It's been voting for the KY GOP at the state level for all of four years! It's only become a stronghold of the GOP at the federal level over the past 5-10 years or so. This is not a place where people identify with the party. We already know that Bevin is hated in places where registered Republicans tend to be working class or poor because his no-name challenger wrecked him in those places. Usually, when this happens, those primary protest voters don't coalesce around the incumbent. See: Swearingen voters in Mingo County, WV.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #218 on: June 15, 2019, 04:31:20 pm »

I'm sure they were sweating about TN-SEN as well

I'm sure that by June 2018, the polling was already noticeably and massively shifting in favour of Marsha Blackburn. There was even a poster who had it as their signature with the quote "dumber than Alabama" lol.

This is July: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=296377.0
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,930
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #219 on: June 15, 2019, 04:41:42 pm »

Black was leading in the polls in the primary and was costing Blackburn the Senate.

When Lee won the nomination, he solidified the support of conservatives and pulled Blackburn over the finish line.

Bevin has stayed unpopular and will remain unpopular
Logged
Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,467
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #220 on: June 16, 2019, 10:48:21 am »
« Edited: June 16, 2019, 10:52:06 am by IA less likely to flip than OH(?)/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ »

GOP infighting continues in KY. From Courier Journal:

Quote
ELIZABETHTOWN ó Kentucky Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton's fired aide told conservative activists on Saturday that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was behind booting her boss from the 2019 gubernatorial ticket.

Republican Gov. Matt Bevin chose state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, of Winchester, to be his new running mate, much to the chagrin of Hampton's supporters in the tea party movement. [...]

Southworth was terminated from her $81,000-a-year job by the Bevin administration on May 30. Hampton drew attention to the firing with a May 31 tweet that asked Kentuckians for prayers against unknown "dark forces" in the administration who were behind the decision.

The administration's split is becoming a concerning distraction for Kentucky Republicans ahead of the 2019 governor's race against Democrat Andy Beshear.
Logged
elephantower
Rookie
*
Posts: 31


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #221 on: June 19, 2019, 10:39:04 pm »
« Edited: June 19, 2019, 10:42:21 pm by elephantower »

John Bel Edwards is Governor of Louisiana. I'm not sure what would be so shocking about Bevin not being re-elected. He's made it more difficult to be diagnosed with Black Lung by revoking the licenses of many doctors, he's made it more difficult to receive workers compensation, which is always a big issue in coal country, he's passed Right to Work, he's insulted teachers, he tried to shred Medicaid etc. He's done everything in his power to alienate coal country and waged a war against the region.

It's not as if coal country is loyal to the Republican Party. It's been voting for the KY GOP at the state level for all of four years! It's only become a stronghold of the GOP at the federal level over the past 5-10 years or so. This is not a place where people identify with the party. We already know that Bevin is hated in places where registered Republicans tend to be working class or poor because his no-name challenger wrecked him in those places. Usually, when this happens, those primary protest voters don't coalesce around the incumbent. See: Swearingen voters in Mingo County, WV.

Coal country is loyal to Trump and I'm pretty sure that will be enough for Bevin to win; I doubt people disillusioned with Bevin's cuts will trust Democrats on other issues enough to vote for them. I don't quite understand your point about Mingo County? Just like in the KY primary, voters in both parties picked protest candidates (Adkins/Goforth/Blankenship(!!)/Swearingen), since Appalachian voters don't align well with either party at the moment.

 However, since Trump is aligned with the GOP and hated by the Dem party, I think the majority of eastern KY will fall in line behind the GOP candidates just as in WV 2018. Manchin hung on by the skin of his teeth because his brand was well-differentiated from national democrats, but Beshear is unlikely to replicate that. And even though Bevin is unpopular, it's not like Miller and Morrissey were great fits for the region either....

Miller in particular committed many of the same sins as Bevin and still handily beat a strong opponent. I know there was dumb speculation about a "negative personal vote" for Ojeda, but it's obvious from the primary map that this was not the case; I think the areas where he underperformed were linked by increased loyalty to Trump rather than dislike of Ojeda.
Logged
Sqad Member Omar
DeadPrez
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,006


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -7.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #222 on: June 20, 2019, 10:36:01 pm »

Matt Bevin is embarassing. Massie should be governor
Logged
cuddlebuns
Rookie
*
Posts: 37


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #223 on: July 07, 2019, 12:30:45 pm »
« Edited: July 07, 2019, 12:35:48 pm by cuddlebuns »

I haven't really been following this race, but this video popped up on my twitter feed. I have no words.
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #224 on: July 07, 2019, 12:37:04 pm »

I haven't really been following this race, but this video popped up on my twitter feed. I have no words.

Old white men should not try and rap, period.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 12 13 14 ... 22 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC