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November 13, 2019, 10:17:19 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, x)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 24530 times)
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« Reply #250 on: August 07, 2019, 10:33:48 pm »

Yeah, Bevin only led in two polls (and even then only narrowly) in 2015 before winning by nine points on election day, most polls had Conway ahead by 2-6. That said, Iím not predicting that this election will play out exactly like the 2015 race did, and Iíd obviously be a lot more confident about Republican chances here if Bevin wasnít such a laughably horrendous candidate.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #251 on: August 07, 2019, 10:56:42 pm »

Probably a good sign for Bevin. I heard just a few months ago that polls had Beshear up by doubles, so Bevin may be narrowing the gap. A few well-timed Trump rallies probably do Beshear in and he ends up losing 53-46 or something. As for my friend MTTreasurer's point on the polling however, the reason Bevin outperformed polling so much is that the turnout in that election was anemic. I don't expect that to happen this time.
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« Reply #252 on: August 07, 2019, 11:33:14 pm »

Probably a good sign for Bevin. I heard just a few months ago that polls had Beshear up by doubles, so Bevin may be narrowing the gap. A few well-timed Trump rallies probably do Beshear in and he ends up losing 53-46 or something. As for my friend MTTreasurer's point on the polling however, the reason Bevin outperformed polling so much is that the turnout in that election was anemic. I don't expect that to happen this time.

Yeah, Bevin clearly benefited from the R-friendly national environment/enthusiasm gap in 2015, and I donít see him winning by nine points this time unless his approval rating improves significantly for some reason.
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« Reply #253 on: August 08, 2019, 07:04:52 am »



Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #254 on: August 08, 2019, 07:18:49 am »



Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?
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« Reply #255 on: August 08, 2019, 07:21:11 am »



Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?
That was a public poll
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« Reply #256 on: August 08, 2019, 08:23:41 am »

Yeah, a 5-point lead is bad news for Beshear. It's down from his previous lead, and KY polls are about as reliable as NV polls. Likely R.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #257 on: August 08, 2019, 09:31:45 am »



Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?
That was a public poll

The poll that had her up by 15% was conducted by the DCCC. The CLF also had a poll that was made around the same time that had her up by 13%
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #258 on: August 08, 2019, 10:16:47 am »



Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?
That was a public poll

That was most definitely not a public poll lmao
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Zaybay
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« Reply #259 on: August 08, 2019, 10:41:09 am »

The poll that gave McGrath an insane lead was a DCCC internal that was released like a day or two after the primary or something.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #260 on: August 08, 2019, 11:45:38 am »



Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
A couple of points about this whole thing-

1. The races that are always cited as evidence- KY GOV 2015 and KY SEN 2014, is not enough to set a precedent. Contrast this with Nevada for example, where we have literally a decade of democrats consistently overperforming polls. Races such as the 2010 senate race show an opposite trend.

2. Both of these races were republican waves, especially in terms of turnout. In this race, I think we can expect turnout to be neutral if not benefitting the democrats.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #261 on: August 08, 2019, 12:45:30 pm »

False. There is plenty of precedent with summer polls overestimating Dems in Appalachia. Every WV Senate race since 2012, KY-6 in 2018 and 2012. Do your research yourself before trying to say Iím wrong
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« Reply #262 on: August 08, 2019, 01:01:59 pm »



Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
A couple of points about this whole thing-

1. The races that are always cited as evidence- KY GOV 2015 and KY SEN 2014, is not enough to set a precedent. Contrast this with Nevada for example, where we have literally a decade of democrats consistently overperforming polls. Races such as the 2010 senate race show an opposite trend.

2. Both of these races were republican waves, especially in terms of turnout. In this race, I think we can expect turnout to be neutral if not benefitting the democrats.

Who cares wave year or not it is ky, and the reddening of ky will overwhelm whatever "blue wave" there might be turnout wise this year.
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« Reply #263 on: August 08, 2019, 02:32:23 pm »

I mean ky-6 even be considered Appalachia? I think it actually trended D by like 0.02 in 2016.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #264 on: August 08, 2019, 02:46:54 pm »

False. There is plenty of precedent with summer polls overestimating Dems in Appalachia. Every WV Senate race since 2012, KY-6 in 2018 and 2012. Do your research yourself before trying to say Iím wrong
1. WV is not Kentucky

2. KY--6 is neither Appalachian or a good representation of Kentucky at large.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #265 on: August 08, 2019, 03:11:38 pm »

When Bevin inevitably wins, Iím going to resurface these posts where you are splitting hairs getting all lawyerly. Beshear is doomed if heís only barely ahead now in the summer. Take it to the grave. Mississippi is more likely to flip.
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« Reply #266 on: August 08, 2019, 04:21:01 pm »

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #267 on: August 08, 2019, 04:28:26 pm »

Sticking with my prediction of 55-43 in favor of Bevin, at least for now. Bevin is horrible, but at least I'll be able to say "I told you so" on November 6.
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« Reply #268 on: August 08, 2019, 04:38:54 pm »

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
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« Reply #269 on: August 08, 2019, 06:03:18 pm »

When Bevin inevitably wins, Iím going to resurface these posts where you are splitting hairs getting all lawyerly. Beshear is doomed if heís only barely ahead now in the summer. Take it to the grave. Mississippi is more likely to flip.
I think Bevin will win, dude. I just do think that Beshear is ahead right now.
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« Reply #270 on: August 08, 2019, 06:05:42 pm »

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
Bredesen was never up by 5-6 points at this point in the cycle.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #271 on: August 08, 2019, 06:40:41 pm »

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
Bredesen was never up by 5-6 points at this point in the cycle.

Youíre right. He was up double digits
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« Reply #272 on: August 08, 2019, 06:43:48 pm »

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
Bredesen was never up by 5-6 points at this point in the cycle.

Youíre right. He was up double digits
Wrong. He was up by 2 in a Marist poll and down by 4 in a Gravis poll.
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« Reply #273 on: August 09, 2019, 06:48:55 pm »

Lexington and its burbs may not be Louisville, but they aren't Hazard either. Big chunk of the Appalachians in KY-06 are 20-year-old kids who moved there to attend UK. The Appalachians in most of Eastern KY are...not that.

And McGrath was a first-time candidate for federal office. Beshear's had a chance to define himself and is running at the state level.

Doesn't make a lot of sense to compare the two.
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« Reply #274 on: August 09, 2019, 07:41:11 pm »

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
what on earth does the marquette poll in 2016 have to do with polling in Kentucky in 2018
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