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November 13, 2019, 11:13:47 pm
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  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 24560 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #325 on: September 13, 2019, 09:14:29 pm »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #326 on: September 13, 2019, 09:22:52 pm »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

Evansville has suburbs?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #327 on: September 13, 2019, 10:16:56 pm »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

Evansville has suburbs?

I'm fairly confident the 'city' of Henderson counts as a suburb.

But this is all about Beshears potential path. That path probably relies far more on places like Bowling Green, Hopkinsville, Henderson, Owensboro, Paducah, Frankfort, the Cincinnati Suburbs, etc, and then getting okay numbers from what rurals still will vote blue, rather than blowing it out in the rural east like the demeocrats of old. Both coalitions include Louisville and Lexington of course.
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« Reply #328 on: September 14, 2019, 12:09:16 am »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #329 on: September 15, 2019, 10:58:15 pm »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.

I have a little secret for ya, bud: itís not because the hicks all view Democrats as socialists now (Republican have been saying that for a hundred years). Think of who the last president was, what his name was, and what his skin color was. I want you to pause and reflect on why you think those rural areas are suddenly so anti-Democrat now all of a sudden. I mean, really, really think on that one.
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« Reply #330 on: September 15, 2019, 11:09:59 pm »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.

I have a little secret for ya, bud: itís not because the hicks all view Democrats as socialists now (Republican have been saying that for a hundred years). Think of who the last president was, what his name was, and what his skin color was. I want you to pause and reflect on why you think those rural areas are suddenly so anti-Democrat now all of a sudden. I mean, really, really think on that one.


Those hicks voted for Douglas Wilder in 1989 . So are you really seriously gonna claim that Appalachia of the 2010s is more racist than the Appalachia of 1989 lol. The Appalachia of today is dominated by baby boomers, a dem who basically spend almost their entire Adult life in a time after the voting rights act was passed vs the prior gens who spend much of their adult life at a time when segregation wasnt viewed as Normal.



Just please stop

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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #331 on: September 15, 2019, 11:13:07 pm »

I would LOVE to hear your explanation for it then. And please spare me the socialism BS. And before you blame ďcultural liberalismĒ or social leftists, consider the name Barack Hussein Obama, a black man from the south side of Chicago in the context of that
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« Reply #332 on: September 15, 2019, 11:20:15 pm »

I would LOVE to hear your explanation for it then. And please spare me the socialism BS. And before you blame ďcultural liberalismĒ or social leftists, consider the name Barack Hussein Obama, a black man from the south side of Chicago in the context of that
Uhhh because Bill Clinton of the 90s would be a moderate Republican now, and the Democratic Party has shifted super far left in comparison to that, especially on the environment and guns? You realize that Kentucky, like West Virginia, has large coal and fossil fuel industries that they donít want shut down or regulated out of existence by the EPA?

There are plenty of policy reasons that Kentucky, among other states, has shifted so far right in the last decade or so. I donít doubt that Obama being black had something to do with that, but itís not nearly as large of a reason as you keep insinuating it to be.
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« Reply #333 on: September 15, 2019, 11:24:45 pm »

I would LOVE to hear your explanation for it then. And please spare me the socialism BS. And before you blame ďcultural liberalismĒ or social leftists, consider the name Barack Hussein Obama, a black man from the south side of Chicago in the context of that
Uhhh because Bill Clinton of the 90s would be a moderate Republican now, and the Democratic Party has shifted super far left in comparison to that, especially on the environment and guns? You realize that Kentucky, like West Virginia, has large coal and fossil fuel industries that they donít want shut down or regulated out of existence by the EPA?

There are plenty of policy reasons that Kentucky, among other states, has shifted so far right in the last decade or so. I donít doubt that Obama being black had something to do with that, but itís not nearly as large of a reason as you keep insinuating it to be.

Even if you accept the ridiculous premise that rural voters care that much about an industry that has less than 4,000 jobs total in their region, many of which arenít elanywhere near the same part of the state, how do you explain the rural trends in literally any of the other continental 46 states. Is that because of ďcoalĒ and ďenergyĒ too?

And lol at Bill Clinton being a moderate Republican today. He was just as socially liberal in the 90ís as Barack Obama was in 2008.
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« Reply #334 on: September 15, 2019, 11:25:40 pm »

I would LOVE to hear your explanation for it then. And please spare me the socialism BS. And before you blame ďcultural liberalismĒ or social leftists, consider the name Barack Hussein Obama, a black man from the south side of Chicago in the context of that

Yes some people did switch cause of racism but thats not the main reason or else SW VA would not have voted for Douglas Wilder either.


The main reason by far is the Democrats becoming more and more anti coal over time(That's why you had a huge shift in 2000). The Second reason is yes the Democrats becoming to far left on social issues , but even that is minor reason compared to the Dems becoming anti-coal.


For example if the Dems suddenly became very very anti tech(and openly so as well) you would see a Massive and almost Instant shift in CA and any states where tech is big because the vast majority of people wont vote for a party that would destroy their career no matter what their prior beliefs were.   People vote on pocketbook first and you may think that those types of job should go away, but calling people racist because they dont want to vote for a party that openly wants to see the industry where they have made their careers be destroyed is absurd.






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« Reply #335 on: September 15, 2019, 11:29:05 pm »

If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldnít be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naÔve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam
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« Reply #336 on: September 15, 2019, 11:30:39 pm »

McDowell County, WV, 2008:
OBAMA: 53%
McCain: 45%

McDowell County, WV, 2016:
TRUMP: 74%
Clinton: 23%

The rural hicks of West Virginia are all voting Republican now b/c they hate Barack Obama, which is why they... voted for him.
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« Reply #337 on: September 15, 2019, 11:31:19 pm »

Today I learned that the guy who appointed Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer to the Supreme Court would be considered a moderate Republican today.
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« Reply #338 on: September 15, 2019, 11:33:26 pm »
« Edited: September 15, 2019, 11:38:02 pm by TrendsareReal »

McDowell County, WV, 2008:
OBAMA: 53%
McCain: 45%

McDowell County, WV, 2016:
TRUMP: 74%
Clinton: 23%

The rural hicks of West Virginia are all voting Republican now b/c they hate Barack Obama, which is why they... voted for him.

Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year
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« Reply #339 on: September 15, 2019, 11:38:11 pm »

If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldnít be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naÔve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam

Here's the Difference, Republicans dont openly like to claim that they want to destroy the industry the region relies on . So they blame the Democrats for wanting to put them in position where they have to get food stamps in the first place, and guess what when a party openly says they wanna destroy your career you would think that as well.

The most fundamental thing to a pocketbook is a job, so when it comes to pocketbook voting that is what will come up first.

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« Reply #340 on: September 15, 2019, 11:44:04 pm »

If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldnít be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naÔve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam

Here's the Difference, Republicans dont openly like to claim that they want to destroy the industry the region relies on . So they blame the Democrats for wanting to put them in position where they have to get food stamps in the first place, and guess what when a party openly says they wanna destroy your career you would think that as well.

The most fundamental thing to a pocketbook is a job, so when it comes to pocketbook voting that is what will come up first.



Is that why so many coal mining counties swung so heavily Republican in 2008 after the economy crashed, because they trusted the Republican Party more on ďpocketbookĒ and economic issues? Thatís a real puzzler there
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« Reply #341 on: September 15, 2019, 11:52:22 pm »

If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldnít be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naÔve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam

Here's the Difference, Republicans dont openly like to claim that they want to destroy the industry the region relies on . So they blame the Democrats for wanting to put them in position where they have to get food stamps in the first place, and guess what when a party openly says they wanna destroy your career you would think that as well.

The most fundamental thing to a pocketbook is a job, so when it comes to pocketbook voting that is what will come up first.



Is that why so many coal mining counties swung so heavily Republican in 2008 after the economy crashed, because they trusted the Republican Party more on ďpocketbookĒ and economic issues? Thatís a real puzzler there


They wouldnt have if Obama openly said he was anti-coal in 2008.


https://www.politico.com/story/2012/04/uttered-in-2008-still-haunting-obama-in-2012-074892

Quote
If somebody wants to build a coal-fired power plant, they can. Itís just that it will bankrupt them,
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« Reply #342 on: September 15, 2019, 11:53:46 pm »

Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly havenít seen the swing map from 1985Ė>1989
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« Reply #343 on: September 15, 2019, 11:56:39 pm »

Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly havenít seen the swing map from 1985Ė>1989

That happened more in Central VA then SW VA. Again I didnt say racism was no part of the reason it changed but a very minor part. BTW Wilder still one SW VA while losing Prince William County, the and Richmond Suburbs
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« Reply #344 on: September 15, 2019, 11:58:28 pm »

Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly havenít seen the swing map from 1985Ė>1989

That happened more in Central VA then SW VA. Again I didnt say racism was no part of the reason it changed but a very minor part. BTW Wilder still one SW VA while losing Prince William County, the and Richmond Suburbs

Orange County, CA didnít change overnight either dude
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« Reply #345 on: September 16, 2019, 12:01:21 am »

Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly havenít seen the swing map from 1985Ė>1989

That happened more in Central VA then SW VA. Again I didnt say racism was no part of the reason it changed but a very minor part. BTW Wilder still one SW VA while losing Prince William County, the and Richmond Suburbs

Orange County, CA didnít change overnight either dude

Its wasnt cause of racism though Appalachia changed. It wasnt overnight exactly thank you, it started changing in 2000 and Dems happily pushed it away since then
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« Reply #346 on: September 16, 2019, 12:08:06 am »

Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?
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« Reply #347 on: September 16, 2019, 12:14:05 am »

Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?

You conveniently left out the violent swing from Kerry to McCain in a lot of these places despite a cratered economy, two wars, and tons of Republican vorruption
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« Reply #348 on: September 16, 2019, 12:14:46 am »

If coal miners didn't already know they were dead, the last six months should have convinced them.
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« Reply #349 on: September 16, 2019, 12:39:12 am »

Youíre the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess weíll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?

You conveniently left out the violent swing from Kerry to McCain in a lot of these places despite a cratered economy, two wars, and tons of Republican vorruption
Not relevant. What happened between 2008 and 2016?
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