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October 13, 2019, 07:40:29 pm
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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 100

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup  (Read 14033 times)
Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #400 on: September 16, 2019, 06:10:07 pm »

You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary “illegal job stealers and rapists” that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you can’t even make this stuff up 😂


No Coal was 75% of the reason and still is. That ad will only help Bevin in efforts to turnout the hard core of hardcore base
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Bagel23
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« Reply #401 on: September 16, 2019, 06:11:40 pm »
« Edited: September 16, 2019, 06:42:00 pm by Silurian »

You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary “illegal job stealers and rapists” that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you can’t even make this stuff up


No Coal was 75% of the reason and still is. That ad will only help Bevin in efforts to turnout the hard core of hardcore base

Which is what, like half of the electorate of Kentucky?
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #402 on: September 16, 2019, 06:22:58 pm »

You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary “illegal job stealers and rapists” that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you can’t even make this stuff up 😂


No Coal was 75% of the reason and still is. That ad will only help Bevin in efforts to turnout the hard core of hardcore base

Which is what, like half of the entire f&cking electorate of Kentucky?


The ones who care about immigration more than Coal probably 1/5



The vast majority of people in a Appalachian Kentucky  vote on the issue of coal
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IceSpear
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« Reply #403 on: September 16, 2019, 06:23:30 pm »

Quote
"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites. Smiley

Yeah, I stand corrected. Republicans definitely aren't appealing to subconscious racism in this ad at all.

This is the kind of pocketbook stuff Mr. Computer was telling me about.

There's nothing "subconscious" about it, lol.

This ad and the eventual Trump rallies will whip the frothing Racist KY Hicks into a frenzy and devastate Beshear. His October collapse will rival and perhaps even surpass Bredesen's.


You had almost all the candidates on the Democratic side raise their hands in support of decriminalizing illegal crossings aka open borders(Biden was the exception). So Democrats first started to alienate these voters by going in a super anti coal direction over the past 20 years , and now are advocating crazy policies on immigration as well which alienates even more voters. Again though even then this is a very minor issue compared to coal for these voters.


Now here's the thing you might not think coal should be saved and you might think the government should do all it can to kill it, but then dont get so upset and then call voters in areas that benefit from coal racist.

Because the ad was clearly a reasonable and well thought out criticism of Democrats' immigration policy. Roll Eyes

More like "SPOOKY VIOLENT TATTOOED BROWN PEOPLE IN GANGS! BESHEAR LOVES THEM AND HATES TRUMP! VOTE BEVIN!"

Excellent strategy from Bevin. He's inevitable. Much like Trump, he knows his base. Racist KY Hicks will eat up this slop like pigs at the trough.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #404 on: September 16, 2019, 10:52:07 pm »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

I’ll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee that’s i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesn’t even seem to be trying to do that. It’s almost as if he’s going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.

I have a little secret for ya, bud: it’s not because the hicks all view Democrats as socialists now (Republican have been saying that for a hundred years). Think of who the last president was, what his name was, and what his skin color was. I want you to pause and reflect on why you think those rural areas are suddenly so anti-Democrat now all of a sudden. I mean, really, really think on that one.

I'm very well aware of the role that racism has played, and continues to play, in Appalachia's movement towards the Democratic Party. It's one of the major factors that caused the Deep South to move into the Republican column as well, back during the Civil Rights Era and in the decades since. But there is no doubt that the modern-day Party's views on social issues, particularly gun rights, gay marriage, and abortion, has also played a role in fueling the region's realignment. These issues, in conjunction with the Monica Lewinsky scandal and the Democratic advocacy for climate change efforts (and hence, opposition to fossil fuels), help explain Al Gore's losses in the region to George W. Bush in 2000, and the continuing Democratic erosion in the coalfields of Eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, SW Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio, etc.
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« Reply #405 on: September 17, 2019, 12:22:32 am »

LOL. But again, I'm sure Atlas posters from CA/IL/MA/OR who have never been to Appalachia know better than the people who actually have.
1. Not from Illinois.
2. In Tennessee right now.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #406 on: September 17, 2019, 12:56:31 am »

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #407 on: September 17, 2019, 12:00:37 pm »

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.
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TML
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« Reply #408 on: September 17, 2019, 12:04:52 pm »

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.

In some areas, it took until the late 2000s (or later) for there to be enough Republican-leaning voters to displace older, unionized Democratic voters.
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Politician
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« Reply #409 on: September 17, 2019, 05:22:12 pm »

GOP Attorney General candidate may be removed from ballot due to not having the required qualifications:

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article235134752.html
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #410 on: September 17, 2019, 05:40:20 pm »
« Edited: September 17, 2019, 06:16:02 pm by Old School Republican »

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.

Kerry barely did better than Obama in WV(0.2%) and Kerry never said anything about bankrupting the coal industry. Also their were still more voters from the old GI Gen voting in 2004 while in 2008 their were less voters form that Gen so that explains the shift. Ralph Nader also got 1% of the vote in 2008 while in 2004 he got 0.54% and Cynthia McKinney also got .33% . So the Left Voting Block actually was higher in 2008 then in 2004 in WV

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darklordoftech
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« Reply #411 on: September 17, 2019, 05:51:43 pm »
« Edited: September 17, 2019, 05:57:51 pm by darklordoftech »

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.
Isn’t Gore known as “the global warming guy”?
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #412 on: September 17, 2019, 06:13:31 pm »

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.
Isn’t Gore known as “the global warming guy”?

Not in 2000
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #413 on: September 24, 2019, 04:22:01 pm »

Returning conversation to that about the campaigns;

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KaiserDave
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« Reply #414 on: September 24, 2019, 05:25:24 pm »

Waiting for Trump to descend on the state say Beshear supports criminal illegals, and killing newborns, and then Bevin wins by 8.
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You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
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« Reply #415 on: September 24, 2019, 05:37:48 pm »

lol yes he was. remember, losing WV, especially by 6 points, was unheard of for a dem coming that close in 2000.
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Politician
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« Reply #416 on: October 04, 2019, 04:37:57 pm »

Oof

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DaWN
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« Reply #417 on: October 04, 2019, 04:39:20 pm »

Oof



'He' is probably Beshear lmao
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Politician
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« Reply #418 on: October 04, 2019, 04:40:44 pm »

Oof



'He' is probably Beshear lmao
Are you seriously trying to spin this?
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Pericles
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« Reply #419 on: October 04, 2019, 04:52:53 pm »

Republicans are good at managing expectations, and they can misread their races too-most Republican elected officials probably thought Trump was doomed in 2016. The word of some elected official doesn't count for much compared to Kentucky's recent history and the evidence which suggests that Bevin is favored.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #420 on: October 04, 2019, 04:55:44 pm »

Oof



Most of KY republican operatives hate Bevin.
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DaWN
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« Reply #421 on: October 04, 2019, 05:01:06 pm »

Oof



'He' is probably Beshear lmao
Are you seriously trying to spin this?

I mean, it isn't really indicative of anything. Top Republicans were super concerned about TN-Sen last year and we all remember what happened then. I'll at least admit Bevin will win by an embarrassing margin but he won't win. Sorry. I'd save all your hope for JBE who is still in with a very good shot.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #422 on: October 04, 2019, 11:24:24 pm »

Oof



'He' is probably Beshear lmao
Are you seriously trying to spin this?

I mean, it isn't really indicative of anything. Top Republicans were super concerned about TN-Sen last year and we all remember what happened then. I'll at least admit Bevin will win by an embarrassing margin but he won't win. Sorry. I'd save all your hope for JBE who is still in with a very good shot.

Yes, I'm old enough to remember when TN-Sen was surely a toss up because some random operatives in a Politico article said so.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #423 on: October 05, 2019, 09:33:23 pm »

When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.
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Zot
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« Reply #424 on: October 05, 2019, 10:02:22 pm »

Why are you leftist so obsessed with race? Our election has nothing to do with it.
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