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November 13, 2019, 11:27:15 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, x)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 24567 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #525 on: October 13, 2019, 12:47:32 pm »

Yeah, if a popular incumbent Democrat who's pro-life might lose in Louisiana, Beshear isn't coming close to winning. My prediction of 54-43 might even be too generous to him.

I could sort of see a 45D/44R/8L outcome here, but that's the only way Beshear can possibly win.
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Jefferson and St Charles Parishes will save JBE
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« Reply #526 on: October 13, 2019, 01:43:25 pm »

So I am not very familiar with Kentucky political geography. If Beashar or Stumbo win where in the state would they pick up the votes?

Trends are so real that Bevin probably carries Elliot County even if he lose statewide.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #527 on: October 13, 2019, 02:11:37 pm »

Itís worth noting that 49% of Kentucky residents are white evangelical Christians according to 2014 Pew data.


Thatís a higher percentage than in Oklahoma, Mississippi, and even Arkansas. Beshear is gonna need every single swing voter imaginable to overcome this Vanilla ISIS coalition.
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #528 on: October 13, 2019, 02:26:39 pm »

Yeah Beshear is definitely losing. How much will depend on what polls we get if any .

Why would his margin of defeat depend on whether or not a poll is published Huh
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #529 on: October 13, 2019, 02:29:44 pm »

So I am not very familiar with Kentucky political geography. If Beashar or Stumbo win where in the state would they pick up the votes?

Trends are so real that Bevin probably carries Elliot County even if he lose statewide.

We're talking in the academic sense, right? Like the "post a ward map of a Republican win in DC" sense, right?

In that case, Jalawest2 posted a decent map in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=308427.0
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #530 on: October 13, 2019, 03:14:00 pm »

Yeah Beshear is definitely losing. How much will depend on what polls we get if any .

Why would his margin of defeat depend on whether or not a poll is published Huh
Polls in KY are heavily dem skewed. It looked to be a close dem win in 2015 polling and yet Conway lost by 9
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #531 on: October 13, 2019, 03:28:50 pm »

I will say that getting a good, public, quality, poll this close to the GE would help clean up this thread. The results would either confirm that the past month's circlejerking was necessary, or it will show that (un)popularity can override partisanship even in one of the trumpiest states.
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gracile
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« Reply #532 on: October 13, 2019, 03:40:07 pm »

I will say that getting a good, public, quality, poll this close to the GE would help clean up this thread. The results would either confirm that the past month's circlejerking was necessary, or it will show that (un)popularity can override partisanship even in one of the trumpiest states.

Given Kentucky's polling history (consistently skewing Democratic), I doubt even a high-quality poll would be very instructive. And again, there are factors aside from polling that would lead people to logically peg this race as being slightly in Bevin's favor.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #533 on: October 13, 2019, 03:50:51 pm »

I think it'll be 56-41 Bevin at this point. Kentucky is even quite a bit redder than Louisiana.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #534 on: October 14, 2019, 12:07:34 am »

I think it'll be 56-41 Bevin at this point. Kentucky is even quite a bit redder than Louisiana.

Iím starting to think replicating Jim Grayís margin of defeat might be one of Beshearís best case scenarios. Just doing a quick Google search of the news in this race yields the top topics in this race: abortion, Trump and impeachment. Yikes. None of those are issues that Beshear should want the race to be centered on
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Ishan
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« Reply #535 on: October 14, 2019, 08:52:07 am »

Mine will be 49-44 Bevin
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #536 on: October 14, 2019, 11:16:10 pm »

It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #537 on: October 15, 2019, 12:38:39 am »

It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

I think they'll probably all wait until the last two weeks, like how we got a large number of polls in the final days running up to the Jungle primary in Louisiana.
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You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
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« Reply #538 on: October 15, 2019, 05:42:06 pm »

Elliott county will vote for Beshear. There is not a doubt in my mind
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #539 on: October 15, 2019, 06:24:26 pm »

Elliott county will vote for Beshear. There is not a doubt in my mind

Yes, there are  too many old dems in this county to not back Beshear when he will get 40%+ statewide. However, a good numbers of Elliot's neighbors that backed him last time won't this time, and those  counties he does carry in Appalachia will be with modest margins. Beshears path unsurprisingly, is though the minor urban areas across the state and the suburbs of Louisville and Cincinnati - along with Louisville, Lexington, and Frankfort of course.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #540 on: October 16, 2019, 01:36:28 am »

Itís worth noting that 49% of Kentucky residents are white evangelical Christians according to 2014 Pew data.


Yet Bill Clinton won it twice.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #541 on: October 16, 2019, 09:17:21 am »

It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

There it is:

https://www.scribd.com/document/430472409/Mason-Dixon-Kentucky-Poll
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #542 on: October 16, 2019, 10:54:49 am »

It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

There it is:

https://www.scribd.com/document/430472409/Mason-Dixon-Kentucky-Poll

Hey look, like I said, a public poll with confirm political opinions on this race. If Bevin's approval is actually treading water then that's the ball game.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #543 on: October 16, 2019, 11:55:32 am »

i wonder if credit will be given to Xingerui and IceSpear
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #544 on: October 16, 2019, 12:21:21 pm »

i wonder if credit will be given to Xingerui and IceSpear

Well, there's two ways you can look at this,and in general view/rate electoral contests. The first view is that you rate the race with the information available today, and that rating changes week by week. The second view is that you rate how you assume the contest will be the day of the election, and that rating sticks for near the entire campaign. It's just a difference of viewpoint. The two groups may and often end up at the same place.

The problem is when the latter groups insults the former or claims superiority when the race does end up as the expected, or when the latter ends up way off and the former insults the latter's stupidity.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #545 on: October 16, 2019, 12:28:19 pm »

i wonder if credit will be given to Xingerui and IceSpear

Honestly, I don't view it as particularly impressive to correctly predict a Republican will win in f'ing Kentucky, I just view it as stating the obvious. But this is the Atlas Forum, so...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #546 on: October 17, 2019, 11:47:32 am »

Morning consult is out with their Q3 approvals and they find Bevin underwater with 34%-53% Approve/Disapprove. Certainly different from Mason-Dixon. Marginal change from Q2 which had 32-56.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #547 on: October 21, 2019, 04:48:57 pm »

William Woods, who finished a distant third in the GOP primary, has endorsed Beshear.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #548 on: October 21, 2019, 04:51:22 pm »

After a heartthrobbing loss in NC-9, Dems should have a Great election night this Nov.
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Pericles
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« Reply #549 on: October 21, 2019, 10:31:09 pm »

After a heartthrobbing loss in NC-9, Dems should have a Great election night this Nov.

In Virginia.
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