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November 19, 2019, 03:03:55 pm
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  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 25884 times)
Thunder98
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« on: May 12, 2019, 08:13:19 pm »
« edited: November 05, 2019, 11:06:46 pm by Governor Beshear »

Added poll

Not sure if there is already a thread about KY's gov race, but couldn’t  find any in the search results, so I created this one for the sakes of it.

The KY Primaries are approaching for the GOV race and other statewide offices on May 21st.

https://wfpl.org/kentucky-primary-2019-matt-bevin-touts-record-despite-unpopularity/

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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2019, 02:06:59 pm »

No, Safe R.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2019, 02:26:58 pm »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2019, 02:45:36 pm »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2019, 02:53:23 pm »

As soon as the atlas put up the 2019 governor predictions, we can predict for ourselves who will win, we see the same arguement over and over again, LA is safe D, eventhough, JBE is below 50% and its a run-off state and KY and MS are safe R.
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Andy Beshear’s Campaign Manager
KYWildman
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2019, 03:58:48 pm »

Short answer: Yes, and he will.

Long answer: Quoting my own response from another thread...

Quote
Some of these posts are so bad I — a lurker — literally felt compelled to sign up just to rebut them.

Clearly many of you understand little about Kentucky politics, but know just enough to be dangerous. As someone born and raised in the state, and who is very in-tune with its current political climate, allow me to explain a few things:

Yes, Kentucky has become far more inflexibly Republican over the past couple decades, and yes, this trend has been seen to some extent even in state level races. BUT that does not mean it is lost to Democrats forever in any race for any office against any candidate.

Jack Conway was a rather disliked figure in the state, or at least not particularly liked. There was little-to-no enthusiasm among just about anyone in the state to vote for Conway, not even among those who would have voted for him if forced to choose, which was why turnout was abysmal that year and why he lost decisively even though he led in the polls. It said nothing about Matt Bevin’s popularity in particular or a total reversal of Kentucky’s tendency to favor Democratic governors in spite of its heavy lean towards Republicans on the presidential/senatorial level. It just said everything about poorly motivated Democratic voters and strongly motivated Republican voters in 2015.

Now, however, Matt Bevin is an exceedingly unpopular known quantity who will most likely run against the son of a very popular governor — who won two statewide landslides within the last 15 years, long after the state went deep red — who himself managed to win statewide office the same year Bevin did, with far more voter enthusiasm in the Democrats’ favor this year than in 2015. He’s toast.

And I say this not just based on wishful thinking or some Louisville or Lexington bubble; my staunchly GOP, Trump voting relatives in south central and eastern Kentucky called Bevin, and I quote, “a f—ing idiot” last time I talked to them. He is literally the least popular governor in the country. His tenure has been plagued by extremely unpopular decisions and mutiny from his own party, which he has no firm grasp on or strong support from whatsoever. He has been booed heavily during speeches in eastern Kentucky and even at the Kentucky Derby. He’s about as popular as Roger Goodell now. Beshear will wipe the floor with him.

And no, a Trump endorsement will not save him any more than it saved Roy Moore, Patrick Morrissey, etc. Kentucky might be inelastic at the national level, and its recent polling history might be dubious, but I am still confident the state is capable for voting Democrat for governor against an incumbent as ridiculously bad as Matt Bevin, who is less popular than Ernie Fletcher ever was.

Yes, I base much of this on anecdotal experience, personal conversation, and gut instinct — but that proved more reliable than polls in 2016, when I became convinced Trump would win after driving through Ohio and Michigan and seeing Trump signs everywhere but no Hillary signs. Now I get the opposite feeling in this race; the support for Bevin is just not there. Everyone I know from all over the state and the political spectrum either openly hates him or is lukewarm about him at best. Beshear will win comfortably, improving on his own 2015 AG map. Mark my words.
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KYWildman
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2019, 03:59:45 pm »
« Edited: May 13, 2019, 04:18:24 pm by KYWildman »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Senators Moore and Morrissey can attest to the accuracy of relying solely on a state’s partisan lean and Trump approval for every race.

Neither of those are remotely good comparisons, by the way. Neither Bredesen or Laxalt were going up against an incumbent as absurdly unpopular as Bevin, and neither were in a state with a strong history of voting Democrat for governor/statewide office that has mostly defied its overall strong R trend like Kentucky has. They also were not off-year elections, where whichever party is more motivated to turn out has the advantage, because there is no downballot effect among people turning out primarily for other races.

Moore and Morrissey are actually more appropriate comprisons, because Bevin is unironically about as toxic as Moore in Kentucky and both 2017 and 2019 are off-years, and Beshear is comparable to Manchin in his popularity among ancestral Appalachian Democrats in defiance of the state’s love for Trump and strong GOP trend.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2019, 04:10:11 pm »

No race with an incumbent with approval ratings this poor is Safe for that incumbent, but Kentucky's partisan lean will be hard for the Democratic candidate to overcome. Lean/Likely R, Bevin probably wins by 5-8 points.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2019, 04:17:06 pm »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. Smiley
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KYWildman
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« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2019, 04:20:49 pm »
« Edited: May 13, 2019, 04:23:54 pm by KYWildman »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. Smiley

Again, I do not think you understand just HOW unpopular Bevin is, even in deep red Trump country. No one outside Kentucky could. It is not comparable to ANY of these other races people bring up. At all. The other states themselves are not quite comparable to Kentucky either in terms of their state party dynamics and history, and the candidates running against these Republicans were not comparable to Beshear either. Manchin is probably the closest analogy applicable here.
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« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2019, 04:23:48 pm »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. Smiley

If he was up against Fallin he probably would have won. Luckily for Republicans, that wasn’t the case
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2019, 04:27:42 pm »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. Smiley

Again, I do not think you understand just HOW unpopular Bevin is, even in deep red Trump country. No one outside Kentucky could. It is not comparable to ANY of these other races people bring up. At all. The other states themselves are not quite comparable to Kentucky either in terms of their state party dynamics and history, and the candidates running against these Republicans were not comparable to Beshear either. Manchin is probably the closest analogy applicable here.

Quote
An October 2018 poll by Morning Consult found Fallin with a 17% approval and 75% disapproval rating, making her the most unpopular governor in the country.

Bevin is a super popular rockstar compared to Muhry Fallin, lol.
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« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2019, 04:30:39 pm »

No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.
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« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2019, 04:39:20 pm »

No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.

This is also the same governor who was loudly booed when he came on stage at his state's signature event. Could you ever imagine such a thing happening to Steve Beshear or Happy Chandler? Bevin is Rauner/Christie/Malloy level unpopular, and from the looks of it, he won't change that just by clinging closer to Trump.
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« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2019, 04:52:49 pm »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Senators Moore and Morrissey can attest to the accuracy of relying solely on a state’s partisan lean and Trump approval for every race.

Neither of those are remotely good comparisons, by the way. Neither Bredesen or Laxalt were going up against an incumbent as absurdly unpopular as Bevin, and neither were in a state with a strong history of voting Democrat for governor/statewide office that has mostly defied its overall strong R trend like Kentucky has. They also were not off-year elections, where whichever party is more motivated to turn out has the advantage, because there is no downballot effect among people turning out primarily for other races.

Moore and Morrissey are actually more appropriate comprisons, because Bevin is unironically about as toxic as Moore in Kentucky and both 2017 and 2019 are off-years, and Beshear is comparable to Manchin in his popularity among ancestral Appalachian Democrats in defiance of the state’s love for Trump and strong GOP trend.

Neither of those are good comparisons, since Bevin hasn't touched underage girls, nor is he running against an incumbent who's extremely popular and had very strong ties to the state for decades. And even so, Jones and Manchin just barely won, even with everything going their way. Unpopular governors have won reelection in states less favorable to their party, so I see no reason to believe Bevin is headed for defeat.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2019, 04:54:01 pm »

No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.

This is also the same governor who was loudly booed when he came on stage at his state's signature event. Could you ever imagine such a thing happening to Steve Beshear or Happy Chandler? Bevin is Rauner/Christie/Malloy level unpopular, and from the looks of it, he won't change that just by clinging closer to Trump.

Both Malloy and Brownback, despite being more unpopular than Bevin and in less partisan states than Kentucky, won re-election.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2019, 04:59:09 pm »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor. Smiley

If he was up against Fallin he probably would have won. Luckily for Republicans, that wasn’t the case

I highly doubt it. Regardless, all throughout 2018 I was told by multiple posters that her unpopularity would make it a toss up race even though she wasn't running, lol. Hopefully once Bevin wins the amended talking point of "ok, unpopularity will lead to a toss up race in a crimson red state but ONLY if they're actually running again!" can bite the dust as well.
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« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2019, 05:17:07 pm »

I've said this elsewhere, but I think Rocky Adkins is gonna surprise and win the primary. He's the only Democrat people seem actually excited to vote for.
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« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2019, 08:59:56 pm »

FWIW Google Trends shows a pretty tight  race with Edelen slightly ahead with Beshear in 3rd. Falls closely in line with $$$ #'s we've seen, Edelen has been spending the most by far out of the field with Adkins surprisingly out raising Beshear.

Image Link


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US-KY&q=%2Fm%2F0crjhhc,%2Fm%2F043mqlf,%2Fm%2F010f0kx_
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2019, 09:50:03 am »

I suppose Bevin could conceivably lose. I'd rate it as Likely R just to be cautious. But this is KY, so we know how that goes.
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« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2019, 12:12:33 pm »

Not enough people are discussing Adkins
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« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2019, 12:26:14 pm »

FWIW Google Trends shows a pretty tight  race with Edelen slightly ahead with Beshear in 3rd. Falls closely in line with $$$ #'s we've seen, Edelen has been spending the most by far out of the field with Adkins surprisingly out raising Beshear.

You don't need to google Beshear's kid to know who he is. You probably need to google the state rep from Sandy Hook. Don't think we should use this as a substitute for polling here.
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« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2019, 06:50:27 pm »

No race with an incumbent with approval ratings this poor is Safe for that incumbent, but Kentucky's partisan lean will be hard for the Democratic candidate to overcome. Lean/Likely R, Bevin probably wins by 5-8 points.
THANK you. Bevin is heavily favored, but it's way too soon to call the race for him.
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« Reply #23 on: May 17, 2019, 12:04:41 pm »

Looking forward to seeing the results come in next week. I have no horse in this race and it looks like it's gonna be close.
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« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2019, 02:03:55 pm »

Edelen is the Kentucky Left Candidate, Beashar and Adkins are Centrist.
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