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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, x)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 104

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup  (Read 15519 times)
Speaker YE
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« Reply #75 on: May 21, 2019, 06:15:14 pm »

Jefferson drops its first 25 precincts. Adkins is getting curbstomped, only 11%.

RIP Adkins.
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« Reply #76 on: May 21, 2019, 06:15:24 pm »

So far it looks like a Beshear/Adkins race.

Beshear seems to be the favourite (NYT is missing a lot of Lexington, where Beshear is up 42-36 on Edelen and Adkins is at 21%), but that can change with Western Kentucky.

Edelen is likely done since his path required doing a lot better in urban areas than he actually is.
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« Reply #77 on: May 21, 2019, 06:16:01 pm »

Adkins is probably getting demolished among blacks in jeffco and fayette co which helps beshear big league
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« Reply #78 on: May 21, 2019, 06:16:07 pm »

Expecting a big Baby Beshear win in Louisville

Edelen has most of the institutional support in Louisville.

Heís a damn spoiler thatís what he is
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« Reply #79 on: May 21, 2019, 06:20:30 pm »

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:

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« Reply #80 on: May 21, 2019, 06:22:11 pm »

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican
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« Reply #81 on: May 21, 2019, 06:22:22 pm »

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.

Iím not sure but itís definitely possible. Perhaps gigantic margins out of Louisville and Lexington and keeping rural losses at a minimum?
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« Reply #82 on: May 21, 2019, 06:24:04 pm »

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.

Iím not sure but itís definitely possible. Perhaps gigantic margins out of Louisville and Lexington and keeping rural losses at a minimum?

Louisville and Lexington alone will not overcome Republican strength in the more rural counties.
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« Reply #83 on: May 21, 2019, 06:24:06 pm »

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

Elliott County literally supported a Democrat in a federal race in 2016 of all years.
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« Reply #84 on: May 21, 2019, 06:24:32 pm »

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

In a presidential election, yes. but it can still go Democratic in a localized election since it takes longer for trends at the top of the ticket to completely trickle down to the local level. any conceivable statewide D win in Kentucky probably involves the Democrat winning Elliot, although not by a huge margin.
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« Reply #85 on: May 21, 2019, 06:24:37 pm »

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

Elliott County will continue vote Democratic on the local level. Not that it matters much anywhere near as much as huge Loudoun County lol
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« Reply #86 on: May 21, 2019, 06:25:24 pm »

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.

Uniform swing from 2016 presidential map?
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« Reply #87 on: May 21, 2019, 06:26:34 pm »

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.
Probably something like this:



Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

Elliott County literally supported a Democrat in a federal race in 2016 of all years.

So did Loudoun County...
Really? Even Comstock lost it.
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« Reply #88 on: May 21, 2019, 06:28:58 pm »

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R. Anyway, Beshear will probably have this once Jefferson comes in. There just isn't enough left in Eastern Kentucky for Adkins to hold his lead.
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« Reply #89 on: May 21, 2019, 06:30:24 pm »

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
40,566   43.6%
Andy Beshear
28,889   31.1
Adam Edelen
21,445   23.1
Geoffrey Young
2,105   2.3
93,005 votes, 22% reporting (799 of 3,686 precincts)

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Matt Bevin*
34,449   51.5%

Robert Goforth
26,911   40.3
William Woods
3,683   5.5
Ike Lawrence
1,802   2.7
66,845 votes, 21% reporting (790 of 3,686 precincts)
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« Reply #90 on: May 21, 2019, 06:31:15 pm »

At this point the Dem side is just waiting for Jefferson and Fayette to drop and nail it in for Beshear.
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« Reply #91 on: May 21, 2019, 06:32:42 pm »

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Michael Bowman
51,708   64.0%

Josh Mers
29,113   36.0
80,821 votes, 24% reporting (878 of 3,686 precincts)

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Robert Haley Conway
46,852   59.7%

Joe Trigg
31,686   40.3
78,538 votes, 23% reporting (856 of 3,686 precincts)

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« Reply #92 on: May 21, 2019, 06:33:49 pm »

Adkins might take it.
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« Reply #93 on: May 21, 2019, 06:34:52 pm »

That may show how #KentuckyHicks still are Democrats.
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« Reply #94 on: May 21, 2019, 06:34:52 pm »

I'm not so sure of Beshear winning anymore. 12,000+ is still pretty sizable for Louisville and Lexington to erase, and Adkins still has some coal counties out where he should net a few thousand more.

Eh he's netted 500 in Louisville with just 4% in there. If he holds that it'll erase 12K without Lexington. Add in the west (where Adkins seems to also be in third as often as he's in first) and it should seal it for Beshear.
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« Reply #95 on: May 21, 2019, 06:37:54 pm »

Rocky's still ahead. Lead just grew.
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« Reply #96 on: May 21, 2019, 06:38:26 pm »

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
48,530   44.3%
Andy Beshear
33,840   30.9
Adam Edelen
24,731   22.6
Geoffrey Young
2,477   2.3
109,578 votes, 28% reporting (1,017 of 3,686 precincts)
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« Reply #97 on: May 21, 2019, 06:39:54 pm »

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. Itís going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as ďevidenceĒ that Bevin is super vulnerable.
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« Reply #98 on: May 21, 2019, 06:41:00 pm »

Lexington is actually 97% in. I have no idea why it's only at 1% on the NYT page.

Andy Beshear   15,455   42%
Adam Edelen   12,918   35%
Rocky Adkins   7,803   21%

So Beshear netted 7652 votes out of Lexington so far, with a little more to go.
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« Reply #99 on: May 21, 2019, 06:41:29 pm »

If Matt Bevin is re-elected, how insufferable will IceSpear be after election day?
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