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  2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 104

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup  (Read 15510 times)
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« Reply #100 on: May 21, 2019, 06:42:09 pm »

Lexington is actually 97% in. I have no idea why it's only at 1% on the NYT page.

Andy Beshear   15,455   42%
Adam Edelen   12,918   35%
Rocky Adkins   7,803   21%

So Beshear netted 7652 votes out of Lexington so far, with a little more to go.

Right, forgot about Lexington delay.

Since that isn't on NYT map, lead is only down to 8,000 with 96% of Jefferson to go. Will be interesting.
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« Reply #101 on: May 21, 2019, 06:43:08 pm »

Lexington is actually 97% in. I have no idea why it's only at 1% on the NYT page.

Andy Beshear   15,455   42%
Adam Edelen   12,918   35%
Rocky Adkins   7,803   21%

So Beshear netted 7652 votes out of Lexington so far, with a little more to go.

Right, forgot about Lexington delay.

Since that isn't on NYT map, lead is only down to 8,000 with 96% of Jefferson to go. Will be interesting.

Western Kentucky is also having Beshear leading so far, which puts some less pressure on Jefferson pulling through for him.
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Ses
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« Reply #102 on: May 21, 2019, 06:43:25 pm »

If Matt Bevin is re-elected, how insufferable will IceSpear be after election day?

The last time IceSpear was dead wrong (Alabama) he apologized for it and updated his later predictions (such as WV-Sen) with regards to that result. Unlike you, who have doubled down on all your incorrect takes without ever admitting you were wrong about almost everything in 2018.
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Canis
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« Reply #103 on: May 21, 2019, 06:43:39 pm »

This is gonna be a close one calling it now
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« Reply #104 on: May 21, 2019, 06:44:13 pm »

Is Rocky ahead with all of Lex in?
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« Reply #105 on: May 21, 2019, 06:44:38 pm »

Is Rocky ahead with all of Lex in?
Yes
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« Reply #106 on: May 21, 2019, 06:44:42 pm »

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."
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« Reply #107 on: May 21, 2019, 06:46:38 pm »

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."

Oh that's what you meant by D/R primary results. That makes more sense.
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« Reply #108 on: May 21, 2019, 06:49:45 pm »

A dump from Louisville

       Adam H. EDELEN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    10,179   44.96
           Geoffrey M. "Geoff" YOUNG .  .  .  .  .       453    2.00
           Rocky ADKINS  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,398   10.59
           Andy BESHEAR  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,611   42.45

Yeah, this is looking like it just might be Adkins' night.
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« Reply #109 on: May 21, 2019, 06:50:33 pm »

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Yeah, I guess I could've been more clear about that.

Anyway, if we factor in the Fayette numbers, Adkins is actually up by about 9K by now, right? This could actually be very close. It'll depend on whether the remaining Jefferson numbers are as favorable for Beshear as the initial results.
Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."

Oh that's what you meant by D/R primary results. That makes more sense.

Yeah, I should've been more clear about that.

Anyway, it's much closer now that we have Fayette and some of Jefferson. If the current Jefferson numbers are representative, Beshear probably pulls it out, but if Adkins does better in the remaining precincts, he might actually pull this off.
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« Reply #110 on: May 21, 2019, 06:51:13 pm »

A dump from Louisville

       Adam H. EDELEN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    10,179   44.96
           Geoffrey M. "Geoff" YOUNG .  .  .  .  .       453    2.00
           Rocky ADKINS  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,398   10.59
           Andy BESHEAR  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,611   42.45

Yeah, this is looking like it just might be Adkins' night.

Yeah, I don't think so. With Fayette numbers, Beshear is down around 5K statewide and already has 7K over Adkins from a quarter of Jefferson.
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Canis
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« Reply #111 on: May 21, 2019, 06:51:23 pm »

all of fayettvile just dropped on nyt as I predicted its close
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« Reply #112 on: May 21, 2019, 06:52:29 pm »

A dump from Louisville

       Adam H. EDELEN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    10,179   44.96
           Geoffrey M. "Geoff" YOUNG .  .  .  .  .       453    2.00
           Rocky ADKINS  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,398   10.59
           Andy BESHEAR  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,611   42.45

Yeah, this is looking like it just might be Adkins' night.

Yeah, I don't think so. With Fayette numbers, Beshear is down around 5K statewide and already has 7K over Adkins from a quarter of Jefferson.

Er, Beshear down 8K, but point stands. A lot of Jefferson is still out and he's still up big over Adkins.
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« Reply #113 on: May 21, 2019, 06:52:39 pm »

Adkins got 97% of the vote in Elliott County
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« Reply #114 on: May 21, 2019, 06:56:22 pm »

I'm tempted to make a "Describe an Andy Beshear and Adam Edelen voter in Elliot County" thread.
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« Reply #115 on: May 21, 2019, 06:56:51 pm »

The AP calls it for Bevin.
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« Reply #116 on: May 21, 2019, 06:57:21 pm »

Currently up 51.2-40.2.
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« Reply #117 on: May 21, 2019, 06:57:46 pm »

Looks like Beshear has this.
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« Reply #118 on: May 21, 2019, 06:58:33 pm »

Adkins is down to a 1.7% lead, with about a third of Jefferson in. Unless he can do better in the remaining precincts there, this is probably over.
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« Reply #119 on: May 21, 2019, 06:59:01 pm »

I'm tempted to make a "Describe an Andy Beshear and Adam Edelen voter in Elliot County" thread.

I mean a Beshear could be someone who really liked Steve Beshear and those Edelen voters are some of those shrill retrained traitor solar workers?
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« Reply #120 on: May 21, 2019, 06:59:19 pm »

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
82,501   36.4%
Andy Beshear
78,746   34.7
Adam Edelen
60,811   26.8
Geoffrey Young
4,874   2.1
226,932 votes, 57% reporting (2,100 of 3,686 precincts)

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« Reply #121 on: May 21, 2019, 06:59:57 pm »

Adkins received 96.9% of the vote in his home county of Elliot. lol

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« Reply #122 on: May 21, 2019, 07:00:15 pm »

Ok, now Beshear has this.

There's a ton of JeffCo still out, and most of Western Kentucky is out. There's still a couple dozen precincts in the Cincy burbs (where Beshear has been romping all night) too.
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« Reply #123 on: May 21, 2019, 07:00:44 pm »

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Sheri Donahue
74,318   45.7%

Kelsey Hayes Coots
54,772   33.7
Chris Tobe
33,556   20.6
162,646 votes, 56% reporting (2,081 of 3,686 precincts)

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Michael Adams
55,890   40.7%

Andrew English
37,777   27.5
Stephen Knipper
25,885   18.8
Carl Nett
17,841   13.0
137,393 votes, 57% reporting (2,088 of 3,686 precincts)

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« Reply #124 on: May 21, 2019, 07:04:14 pm »

Democratic Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Rocky Adkins
88,871   37.1%
Andy Beshear
82,572   34.4
Adam Edelen
63,193   26.4
Geoffrey Young
5,153   2.1
239,789 votes, 61% reporting (2,233 of 3,686 precincts)
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