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December 08, 2019, 11:59:24 am
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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 27318 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #150 on: May 21, 2019, 08:15:09 pm »

Unsurprisingly, it's a Bevin vs Besar General Election matchup!

Attack of the Killer B's!
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Andy Beshear’s Campaign Manager
KYWildman
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« Reply #151 on: May 21, 2019, 08:24:16 pm »

Yeah, I’m now even more convinced than before that Bevin is screwed. Got BTFO in some very deep red counties. Turnout for him will be atrocious. Beshear will win big in the cities and take some ancestral Dem rural counties. Wins statewide by 2-3 points at least.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #152 on: May 21, 2019, 08:26:29 pm »

Beshear will beat Bevin 51%-48% in November.

Bevin rode a red wave from 2014-15 and a Trump pre-wave, but he has been a mediocre governor.

If Bevin loses, I wonder if he challenges McConnell in 2020?

However, Beshear, Stumbo, and French Henry will win their races in November 2019.
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Andy Beshear’s Campaign Manager
KYWildman
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« Reply #153 on: May 21, 2019, 08:32:29 pm »

More embarssing for Bevin than losing those hick counties that are almost all gonna vote for him besides maybe something like Elliot(I don't think its completely gone locally if the 2018 house result was +12 and its clearly like Safe D if Adkins is the nominee) is the fact he doesn't even have a majority in campbell county.

My hot take is that a hypothetical Beshear win over Bevin would include Oldham County and one or two of the Cincinnati suburban counties going blue while East KY still stays red. Adkins probably could have had a parochial bounce there but I doubt Beshear is the one to resurrect those Appalachian Dems

I think Adkins may have had a better chance at flipping a handful of those Eastern counties, looking at the map, but probably Beshear still had/has the best chance overall of winning the state. Those Eastern counties that voted for Adkins and Goforth will probably split their votes, but enthusiasm for Bevin is absolutely nonexistent across the state. The most motivated voters on Election Day will be Beshear voters. “Not Bevin” is hands down the most popular candidate in the state.
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Andy Beshear’s Campaign Manager
KYWildman
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« Reply #154 on: May 21, 2019, 08:43:52 pm »

Andy Beshear winning more votes than Bevin is just hilarious.

Will happen again in November.
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Xing
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« Reply #155 on: May 21, 2019, 08:49:17 pm »

I wonder what percentage of Adkins voters in Elliott county will go to Beshear.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #156 on: May 21, 2019, 08:57:50 pm »

Bevin wins by double digits.
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You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
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« Reply #157 on: May 21, 2019, 08:58:25 pm »

I wonder what percentage of Adkins voters in Elliott county will go to Beshear.
probably around two-thirds
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Ishan
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« Reply #158 on: May 21, 2019, 08:59:43 pm »

I wonder what percentage of Adkins voters in Elliott county will go to Beshear.
60% I guess
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #159 on: May 21, 2019, 09:07:34 pm »

Eastern Kentucky seems to have really liked Rocky Adkins. Huge margins in coal country for him, up to 90% in Rowan. Why?
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Ses
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« Reply #160 on: May 21, 2019, 09:08:54 pm »

Eastern Kentucky seems to have really liked Rocky Adkins. Huge margins in coal country for him, up to 90% in Rowan. Why?

Well he’s from there, for one thing. The other two candidates are from the metros. Adkins is from Elliott County.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #161 on: May 21, 2019, 09:19:54 pm »

These results basically mesh well with my initial prediction of Bevin +5 to +8 in the general, although I am surprised he only won his primary by ~13 points... could be a sign of things to come, or not. we'll see.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #162 on: May 21, 2019, 09:40:06 pm »

Good sign for JBE and Hood?
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #163 on: May 21, 2019, 09:47:54 pm »


How is an extremely unpopular governor doing poorly in his primary in Kentucky good news for Democratic candidates in Louisiana and Mississippi?
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Bagel23
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« Reply #164 on: May 21, 2019, 10:16:40 pm »

Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.
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Skye
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« Reply #165 on: May 21, 2019, 10:37:30 pm »

Hilariously bad results for Bevin. He might just lose the general.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #166 on: May 21, 2019, 11:32:12 pm »

Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.

My forecast too. And i expect considerable percentage of Adkins votes going Bevin in November. For many rural "easterners" from coal mines Beshear may be a "liberal city slick"....
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Ishan
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« Reply #167 on: May 22, 2019, 06:03:49 am »

Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.

 from coal mines Beshear may be a "liberal city slick"....
LOL, Edelen would be that
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #168 on: May 22, 2019, 06:56:33 am »

Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.

 from coal mines Beshear may be a "liberal city slick"....
LOL, Edelen would be that

101% - yes. But Beshear is pro-choice and popular in urban core. That could be enough for many...
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Barron
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« Reply #169 on: May 22, 2019, 08:26:55 am »
« Edited: May 22, 2019, 08:31:35 am by Barron »

Fletcher performed better in his primary against Northup in 2007, before he lost in a landslide against Beshear in the general. The primary results were terrible for Bevin, but most of Goforth's wins came from very conservative areas, so I don't know if Beshear will be able to exploit Bevin's bare win in the primary. Rocky would have been best suited to peal through the areas Goforth did well in.

That said, wouldn't be surprised if Beshear totally blows it and loses by 8%+
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #170 on: May 22, 2019, 08:31:17 am »

Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
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Ishan
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« Reply #171 on: May 22, 2019, 08:38:53 am »

Fletcher performed better in his primary against Northup in 2007, before he lost in a landslide against Beshear in the general. The primary results were terrible for Bevin, but most of Goforth's wins came from very conservative areas, so I don't know if Beshear will be able to exploit Bevin's bare win in the primary. Rocky would have been best suited to peal through the areas Goforth did well in.

That said, wouldn't be surprised if Beshear totally blows it and loses by 8%+
Are you supporting Beshear with you wanting to vomit if Beshear is elected Governor against Vomit Bevin.
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Ishan
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« Reply #172 on: May 22, 2019, 08:39:36 am »

Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #173 on: May 22, 2019, 08:50:53 am »

Around 60% of the ballots cast were in the Democratic primary. We knew that was going to happen, especially with the competitive Democratic primary, but in 2015 there were more votes in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary. I would expect at least a third of Adkins voters and maybe 20% of the others in the Democratic primary to vote for Bevin in the general.

It should a little bit concerning to Bevin not only that Gofforth got 39% against him but also the most Republican region in Kentucky voted for Gofforth the most. It's loyally Republican, so it won't vote against him in the general but Republicans not voting may be a serious problem that could cost him the race.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #174 on: May 22, 2019, 09:12:48 am »

Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid
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