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December 15, 2019, 07:56:20 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 27626 times)
smoltchanov
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« Reply #175 on: May 22, 2019, 09:24:01 am »

Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)
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Beshear al Assad
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« Reply #176 on: May 22, 2019, 09:55:26 am »

Eastern Kentucky seems to have really liked Rocky Adkins. Huge margins in coal country for him, up to 90% in Rowan. Why?

Adkins is vocally pro-ilfe and Beshear (and Edelen) were not. Also Adkins is from EKY (Elliott County I think?) and Beshear and Edelen were from further west.

Steve Beshear was also pro-choice and was able to do well in EKY so maybe Andy would still be able to pick up a lot of these voters? I'm always worried when these culture wars issues crop up in rural D areas though so I'm not confident about Beshear winning over Adkins voters on this issue.

Here's another interesting wrinkle:

Quote
Kentucky's pension crisis may be the key issue of this year's election. Every candidate agrees that we are in a mess that needs to be cleaned up. Beshear and Adkins both say that Bevin's tactics have been wholly unsuccessful.

"When this governor tried to slash pensions, I went to the Supreme Court and personally argued for the promised pensions of more than 200,000 teachers, police officers, firefighters, EMS, social workers and nearly all city and county employees in Kentucky," Beshear said on his campaign website.

"What happened to educators and public employees during Matt Bevin's administration is inexcusable," Adkins says on his campaign website. Adkins also told WFPL that he is against privatizing public pensions.

[...]

Matt Bevin has defended his actions, saying that has attacked the pension crisis head-on. "I've never wavered from my original promise to give everything I have...to fix this problem," he said on his campaign website. He says he fought against political pressure and those who tried to come against him "because it was the right thing to do."

Robert Goforth says that pensions are a promise made to city employees and that it is a promise that cannot be broken. "We need to quit alarming people and start finding effective solutions," he says on his campaign website.

(Where do the candidates for Kentucky's governor stand on key issues? - from WHAS)

I'd love for EKY voters from old union households/families to to turn out for state pensioners but I'm not confident in that either. Maybe this is part of why Goforth did so well in the Southeast? Scott Walker was able to maintain popularity after Act 10 by turning rural voters against public sector workers by painting them as "elites" predominantly from the major metro areas of Wisconsin. Beshear (Vanderbilt/UVA educated lawyer from Lexington) seems like a good target for some class-based rural resentment even if Bevin is not popular. Adkins maybe would have had some more authority here.

I know lots of things are different but I'm getting a Wisconsin 2014 vibe here...
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #177 on: May 22, 2019, 03:53:00 pm »

Woah Adkins used to be an atlas user

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Barron
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« Reply #178 on: May 22, 2019, 04:29:56 pm »

Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)

Campaigning with any national democrats in Kentucky is astoundingly stupid
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #179 on: May 22, 2019, 04:32:49 pm »

Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)

Campaigning with any national democrats in Kentucky is astoundingly stupid

This. If Beshear wants to win, he needs to localize localize localize. Gah, this would be so much easier with Adkins.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #180 on: May 22, 2019, 11:23:53 pm »

Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)

Campaigning with any national democrats in Kentucky is astoundingly stupid

I never said he must bring Sanders into state. But appeal to "populists" - why not?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #181 on: May 22, 2019, 11:25:16 pm »

Beshear has to campaign somewhat with in the east with Rocky. Can't ignore that part of the state.
And he needs to energize the Edelen base and the Sanderites by campaigning with Bernie.
That would be stupid

May be not so stupid concerning Sanderites (economic populism still has some popularity in Kentucky, including it's Eastern part), but surely not Edelen base (too easy to get characterized as "liberal city slicker" and cause massive bleeding of votes in the East)

Campaigning with any national democrats in Kentucky is astoundingly stupid

This. If Beshear wants to win, he needs to localize localize localize. Gah, this would be so much easier with Adkins.

That's why i considered Adkins to be the best GE candidate. But, as usual, urban core and liberal base outvoted anyone else in primary.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #182 on: May 24, 2019, 11:46:30 am »

Rocky did extremely well on his home turf in NE KY (like 80%+) which actually isn't coal country.  He won most, but not all of the coal counties in SE KY by less impressive margins.  He lost 5 of the 6 coal counties in WKY.  Clearly, he must have been a good rep over the years to win his area so overwhelmingly, but it doesn't seem to have much if anything to do with coal.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #183 on: May 24, 2019, 04:42:17 pm »

A Paul Patton v Fogerty map: 50-48% win would certainly be in the realm of possibilities of a Beshear narrow victory.
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Andy Beshear’s Campaign Manager
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« Reply #184 on: May 24, 2019, 05:15:50 pm »

I know this wasn’t exactly the most scientific of polls, but still, LOL.



I can tell you just about everyone in Kentucky watches LEX 18, and based on the comments of some of their other posts, the Facebook page is populated with a considerable number of Trumpers and boomers. And there were over 34,000 votes, so it was a large sample even if it wasn’t representative. So the fact that Bevin still lost it by that much is pretty pathetic.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #185 on: May 24, 2019, 05:19:44 pm »

Go Beshear
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #186 on: May 30, 2019, 10:12:13 am »

I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #187 on: May 30, 2019, 10:26:17 am »

I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

If Beshear loses, it will be because Kentucky is a red state to begin with, not because Trump held some rallies there.
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Xing
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« Reply #188 on: May 30, 2019, 02:49:05 pm »

I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.
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Strong Candidate
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« Reply #189 on: May 30, 2019, 09:50:04 pm »

Something tells me that this thread will be the biggest dumpster fire on the board if this race looks even remotely competitive going into November.
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Ishan
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« Reply #190 on: May 31, 2019, 05:23:03 pm »

 
Something tells me that this thread will be the biggest dumpster fire on the board if this race looks even remotely competitive going into November.
It is remotely competitive.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #191 on: May 31, 2019, 06:04:24 pm »

I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.

Sorry for stealing your line.
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decunningham2
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« Reply #192 on: May 31, 2019, 08:32:09 pm »

Something tells me that this thread will be the biggest dumpster fire on the board if this race looks even remotely competitive going into November.
It is remotely competitive.

More than remotely.
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Xing
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« Reply #193 on: May 31, 2019, 09:05:14 pm »

I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.

Sorry for stealing your line.

It's fine if you use the line, just know that it's kind of supposed to be a joke...
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #194 on: June 01, 2019, 02:11:42 pm »

Interesting article about this race. It's an unpopular man versus an unpopular party.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/01/us/matt-bevin-kentucky.html
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decunningham2
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« Reply #195 on: June 01, 2019, 03:12:15 pm »

Interesting article about this race. It's an unpopular man versus an unpopular party.


Beshear has to hope Adkins can convince those voters to stay onboard. He can't just win with Lexington and Louisville, he needs to perform well in eastern Kentucky.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #196 on: June 04, 2019, 03:36:29 am »

Tossup
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timewalker102
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« Reply #197 on: June 04, 2019, 11:44:40 pm »

Bevin's best strategy here is to honestly get Trump to campaign for him as much as possible and tie himself to Trump. The man himself seems very unpopular and the only way he can win is by nationalizing the race.
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #198 on: June 14, 2019, 11:16:35 am »



If this is true, Bevin might actually be on track to lose in a landslide.
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SvenTC
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« Reply #199 on: June 14, 2019, 11:59:37 am »

The fact that the Kentucky GOP are actually sweating about this one gives me legitimate hope. Not a lot of it, but hope nonetheless.
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