2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Mr. Smith]

Bevin doing everything he can to lose

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Bevin-says-primary-challenger-Rep-Robert-Goforth-is-a-name-so-easily-forgotten-557894411.html

Here's a longer article on the rift between Bevin and Goforth along with the contrast of Beshear and Rocky being BFFs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-governors-remark-stirs-spat-174531198.html

This was true in 2015 too though...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is tilt D now

[junior chįmp]

At this point....i hope Bevin wins just so I can predict something right for once

[Donerail]

lmfao this dude's not gonna win, y'all!

https://twitter.com/courierjournal/status/1168870528356179968

A State Senator from your own party hosting a party to commemorate what a jackass you are — featuring your own Lieutenant Governor!

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

lmfao this dude's not gonna win, y'all!

https://twitter.com/courierjournal/status/1168870528356179968

A State Senator from your own party hosting a party to commemorate what a jackass you are — featuring your own Lieutenant Governor!

But what about polarization??!?!!

[Sir Mohamed]

I will not buy any hype on this race until I see Beshear winning. Or the credible polls have him ahead outside the MoE, over 50% and days before the election. Bevin seems to be a disastrous gov and he deserves to lose, but it's KY after all. And it's not 2005 anymore, when KY was at least more Dem friendly downballot.

[Donerail]

I will not buy any hype on this race until I see Beshear winning. Or the credible polls have him ahead outside the MoE, over 50% and days before the election.

then why are you posting in this thread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/heraldleader/status/1172222760845750272

[MT Treasurer]

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change

Does Bevin even WANT to win this race?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change

Does Bevin even WANT to win this race?

Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

He’ll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

[Thunder98]

Bevin wins by 8-12%

[Oryxslayer]

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

I'm of the opinion that approval and favorability numbers are more of a factor in Gubernatorial elections, while normal partisan leans take precedent in presidential and congressional elections. I think there is recent precedent for that view in KS Governor 18 and LA Governor 15, especially in the latter case. The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

That's why I believe Bevin will loose this race, he simply seems to be so thoroughly unpopular in Kentucky that Beshear has a shot. Now, if this was a Senate race we were talking about, there'd be no chance in hell that the Democrat would prevail, no matter how unpopular MoscowMitch becomes, but I still believe there is a huge difference between how polarized the electorate is regarding state elections, compared with national ones.

Though I might be proven to be too optimistic. We'll just have to wait til November and see. 

[MT Treasurer]

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

Unpopular governors winning reelection because the national environment and their state's partisan lean is hardly unprecedented, think Brownback, Raimondo, Blagojevich. However, the national environment isn’t nearly as favorable for Republicans as it was in 2015, so I’m not sure if nationalizing the race or using the Trump playbook will be enough for Bevin. I think the bigger problem for Democrats here is that Beshear is way too liberal for the state on social issues and hasn’t really distanced himself enough from the national party.

The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

I agree with this, but keep in mind that JBE is pro-life (and relatively moderate on most other social issues as well) and Democrats have a much higher floor in LA than in KY.

[Xing]

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

Unpopular governors winning reelection because the national environment and their state's partisan lean is hardly unprecedented, think Brownback, Raimondo, Blagojevich. However, the national environment isn’t nearly as favorable for Republicans as it was in 2015, so I’m not sure if nationalizing the race or using the Trump playbook will be enough for Bevin. I think the bigger problem for Democrats here is that Beshear is way too liberal for the state on social issues and hasn’t really distanced himself enough from the national party.

Unpopular governors can also win in bad years for their party, if they're running in a favorable state (Malloy, for example.) I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin. If this were only a Republican-leaning state, Bevin would obviously be in big trouble, but I really don't buy him being vulnerable in a state like Kentucky.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ask Drew Edmondson how an extremely unpopular Republican gubernatorial administration led to him getting clobbered by double digits

[Oryxslayer]

Ask Drew Edmondson how an extremely unpopular Republican gubernatorial administration led to him getting clobbered by double digits

Incumbents are different from successors, this we know from plenty of historical examples: comparing OK Gov between 2014 and 2018 is actually one of the best examples. A better case for your point would be CTGOV 2014, when Malloy won reelection despite his unpopular administration and an GOP wave. A good case for the former are AKGOV14 and KSGOV 2014, where the opposition came close to or captured the office despite opposing national headwinds and unfavorable PVI. Like I said, there are plenty of cases and arguments to be had about which will end up as more  important.

[IceSpear]

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change

Does Bevin even WANT to win this race?

Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

He’ll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

I can't wait for the posts saying "How did Beshear lose <insert rural county here> to UNPOPULAR BEVIN when he won it in 2015?! Nobody saw this coming!"

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I usually agree with IceSpear, but I actually think Beshar has a solid chance of winning

[Xing]

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change

Does Bevin even WANT to win this race?

Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

He’ll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

I can't wait for the posts saying "How did Beshear lose <insert rural county here> to UNPOPULAR BEVIN when he won it in 2015?! Nobody saw this coming!"

I don't think you even need to leave the rural county unnamed . Also, people will be SHOCKED by his margin in Jefferson, and wonder why the statewide vote didn't swing Beshear's way as much as Jefferson does.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

[KaiserDave]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Rocky would definitely have an edge. I don't see pro lifers frustrated with Bevin all too anxious about voting for Rocky.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

I’ll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee that’s i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesn’t even seem to be trying to do that. It’s almost as if he’s going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

[Calthrina950]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

I’ll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee that’s i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesn’t even seem to be trying to do that. It’s almost as if he’s going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.