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November 12, 2019, 05:29:38 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, x)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 23981 times)
L.D. Smith
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« Reply #300 on: September 01, 2019, 07:03:14 pm »


This was true in 2015 too though...
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #301 on: September 01, 2019, 09:54:56 pm »

This race is tilt D now
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Mondale
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« Reply #302 on: September 01, 2019, 09:59:31 pm »

At this point....i hope Bevin wins just so I can predict something right for once
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #303 on: September 03, 2019, 10:23:20 pm »

lmfao this dude's not gonna win, y'all!



A State Senator from your own party hosting a party to commemorate what a jackass you are ó featuring your own Lieutenant Governor!
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #304 on: September 04, 2019, 02:03:42 am »

lmfao this dude's not gonna win, y'all!



A State Senator from your own party hosting a party to commemorate what a jackass you are ó featuring your own Lieutenant Governor!

But what about polarization??!?!!
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #305 on: September 04, 2019, 02:35:13 am »

I will not buy any hype on this race until I see Beshear winning. Or the credible polls have him ahead outside the MoE, over 50% and days before the election. Bevin seems to be a disastrous gov and he deserves to lose, but it's KY after all. And it's not 2005 anymore, when KY was at least more Dem friendly downballot.
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« Reply #306 on: September 04, 2019, 10:51:31 am »

I will not buy any hype on this race until I see Beshear winning. Or the credible polls have him ahead outside the MoE, over 50% and days before the election.
then why are you posting in this thread
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Bagel23
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« Reply #307 on: September 04, 2019, 06:19:03 pm »

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #308 on: September 12, 2019, 02:05:11 pm »

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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #309 on: September 12, 2019, 02:15:38 pm »

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change

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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #310 on: September 12, 2019, 02:19:32 pm »

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change


Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

Heíll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers
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Thunder98
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« Reply #311 on: September 12, 2019, 02:24:02 pm »

Bevin wins by 8-12%
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #312 on: September 12, 2019, 02:28:32 pm »

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #313 on: September 12, 2019, 02:56:11 pm »

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

I'm of the opinion that approval and favorability numbers are more of a factor in Gubernatorial elections, while normal partisan leans take precedent in presidential and congressional elections. I think there is recent precedent for that view in KS Governor 18 and LA Governor 15, especially in the latter case. The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

That's why I believe Bevin will loose this race, he simply seems to be so thoroughly unpopular in Kentucky that Beshear has a shot. Now, if this was a Senate race we were talking about, there'd be no chance in hell that the Democrat would prevail, no matter how unpopular MoscowMitch becomes, but I still believe there is a huge difference between how polarized the electorate is regarding state elections, compared with national ones.

Though I might be proven to be too optimistic. We'll just have to wait til November and see. 
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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #314 on: September 12, 2019, 02:57:09 pm »
« Edited: September 12, 2019, 03:00:58 pm by Jubilados cubanos por Trump »

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

Unpopular governors winning reelection because the national environment and their state's partisan lean is hardly unprecedented, think Brownback, Raimondo, Blagojevich. However, the national environment isnít nearly as favorable for Republicans as it was in 2015, so Iím not sure if nationalizing the race or using the Trump playbook will be enough for Bevin. I think the bigger problem for Democrats here is that Beshear is way too liberal for the state on social issues and hasnít really distanced himself enough from the national party.

The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

I agree with this, but keep in mind that JBE is pro-life (and relatively moderate on most other social issues as well) and Democrats have a much higher floor in LA than in KY.
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Xing
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« Reply #315 on: September 12, 2019, 03:22:57 pm »

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

Unpopular governors winning reelection because the national environment and their state's partisan lean is hardly unprecedented, think Brownback, Raimondo, Blagojevich. However, the national environment isnít nearly as favorable for Republicans as it was in 2015, so Iím not sure if nationalizing the race or using the Trump playbook will be enough for Bevin. I think the bigger problem for Democrats here is that Beshear is way too liberal for the state on social issues and hasnít really distanced himself enough from the national party.


Unpopular governors can also win in bad years for their party, if they're running in a favorable state (Malloy, for example.) I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin. If this were only a Republican-leaning state, Bevin would obviously be in big trouble, but I really don't buy him being vulnerable in a state like Kentucky.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #316 on: September 12, 2019, 04:08:25 pm »

Ask Drew Edmondson how an extremely unpopular Republican gubernatorial administration led to him getting clobbered by double digits
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #317 on: September 12, 2019, 04:24:05 pm »

Ask Drew Edmondson how an extremely unpopular Republican gubernatorial administration led to him getting clobbered by double digits

Incumbents are different from successors, this we know from plenty of historical examples: comparing OK Gov between 2014 and 2018 is actually one of the best examples. A better case for your point would be CTGOV 2014, when Malloy won reelection despite his unpopular administration and an GOP wave. A good case for the former are AKGOV14 and KSGOV 2014, where the opposition came close to or captured the office despite opposing national headwinds and unfavorable PVI. Like I said, there are plenty of cases and arguments to be had about which will end up as more  important.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #318 on: September 12, 2019, 05:27:22 pm »

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change


Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

Heíll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

I can't wait for the posts saying "How did Beshear lose <insert rural county here> to UNPOPULAR BEVIN when he won it in 2015?! Nobody saw this coming!"
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Andy Beshear Have My Babies
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« Reply #319 on: September 12, 2019, 05:52:27 pm »

I usually agree with IceSpear, but I actually think Beshar has a solid chance of winning
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Xing
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« Reply #320 on: September 12, 2019, 05:54:24 pm »

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, heíd be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change


Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

Heíll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

I can't wait for the posts saying "How did Beshear lose <insert rural county here> to UNPOPULAR BEVIN when he won it in 2015?! Nobody saw this coming!"

I don't think you even need to leave the rural county unnamed Wink. Also, people will be SHOCKED by his margin in Jefferson, and wonder why the statewide vote didn't swing Beshear's way as much as Jefferson does.
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Senator Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #321 on: September 12, 2019, 08:02:11 pm »
« Edited: September 12, 2019, 08:05:54 pm by Jubilados cubanos por Trump »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.
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Elliot County Demosaurs for Beshear
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« Reply #322 on: September 13, 2019, 12:59:18 pm »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.
Rocky would definitely have an edge. I don't see pro lifers frustrated with Bevin all too anxious about voting for Rocky.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #323 on: September 13, 2019, 04:17:00 pm »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas
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« Reply #324 on: September 13, 2019, 08:31:18 pm »

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

Iím not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldnít hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

Iíll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee thatís i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesnít even seem to be trying to do that. Itís almost as if heís going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.
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