2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:54:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 [20] 21 22 23 24 25 ... 36
Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 163

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 53159 times)
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #475 on: October 10, 2019, 04:25:20 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119
I just said the race wasn't Safe R, I still thought Republicans would win.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,640


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #476 on: October 11, 2019, 11:08:42 AM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #477 on: October 11, 2019, 11:16:02 AM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #478 on: October 11, 2019, 04:13:05 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.

Yeah, rip Wokelahoma.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #479 on: October 11, 2019, 04:31:10 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.

Yeah, rip Wokelahoma.

Oklahoma stitt the bed and now they're up stitt's creek without a paddle.
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #480 on: October 11, 2019, 04:39:00 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.


Sad but true. And we might see JBE tossed out despite his popularity for being a Democrat anyway.

It seems when it comes to governors races, Democrats need a set of really exceptional circumstances to win red states these days (KS, LA, WV).

Meanwhile all it takes for blue states to elect Republicans is the perception of the Dem gubernatorial candidates as lazy (Anthony Brown, Martha Coakley, Sue Minter)
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #481 on: October 11, 2019, 05:12:19 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.


Sad but true. And we might see JBE tossed out despite his popularity for being a Democrat anyway.

It seems when it comes to governors races, Democrats need a set of really exceptional circumstances to win red states these days (KS, LA, WV).

Meanwhile all it takes for blue states to elect Republicans is the perception of the Dem gubernatorial candidates as lazy (Anthony Brown, Martha Coakley, Sue Minter)

2018 truly has convinced me of the greater partisanship of Republicans, as compared to Democrats. It still amazes me how Charlie Baker managed to garner 67% of the vote in Massachusetts, of all places, and Larry Hogan won by 12% in the "inflexible" state of Maryland. Yet South Dakota, which is about as Republican as Maryland is Democratic, couldn't even give the Democrat a win, in spite of them being a moderate "Blue Dog", almost. The same can be said for Tennessee and Oklahoma, which are also as Republican as Maryland and Massachusetts are Democratic.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #482 on: October 11, 2019, 07:29:29 PM »

Trump will hold a rally in KY to try to bail out Bevin.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/11/matt-blevin-kentucky-governor-trump-pence-044735
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #483 on: October 11, 2019, 07:33:09 PM »


I'd say this is another nail in Beshear's coffin, but I'm not sure there's enough real estate on that coffin to fit another nail at this point.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,587
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #484 on: October 11, 2019, 07:45:43 PM »


RIP Beshear
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #485 on: October 11, 2019, 07:48:14 PM »

There goes Elliott County
Logged
Continential
The Op
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,543
Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -5.30

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #486 on: October 11, 2019, 08:53:39 PM »

Kentucky is Likely R closer to Lean to Safe R
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #487 on: October 11, 2019, 09:23:50 PM »


Beshear wouldn't have won it anyway.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,769
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #488 on: October 11, 2019, 10:04:37 PM »

The ratings still has it a Tossup race, Cook ratings
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,587
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #489 on: October 11, 2019, 10:14:45 PM »

The ratings still has it a Tossup race, Cook ratings

All hail Cook!
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #490 on: October 11, 2019, 11:32:33 PM »

Quote
But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committee’s previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #491 on: October 11, 2019, 11:44:29 PM »

Quote
But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committee’s previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!

Kentucky voters are "coming home" to the Party, but they were always going to do that to begin with. Now, I can only wonder if Beshear will manage to keep his loss to within 5%. I wouldn't be surprised if Bevin ended up winning by a margin similar to Hawley or Braun, or even Stitt and Blackburn, when it's all over.
Logged
ltomlinson31
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 448
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #492 on: October 12, 2019, 01:03:58 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2019, 01:08:56 AM by ltomlinson31 »

Quote
But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committee’s previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!



He also did say months before that Beshear had a 10-12% lead in polling early on, but it looks like it's vanished since. Very surprising to see a Democrat hold an early lead in a race in Kentucky only to see it disappear as the race goes on. Very unprecedented.
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #493 on: October 12, 2019, 08:39:40 AM »

Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,730


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #494 on: October 12, 2019, 10:48:30 AM »

It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

Tbh the Jones people have an incentive to spin the results as a mandate for Doug Jones and not just a fluke caused by Moore's pedophilia accusations. The public polling also showed a sharp trend towards Jones as a result of the accusations and Moore never got back to the same lead he had beforehand. Without the accusations I think Moore wins by high single digits, which would still have been an embarrassing performance for a Republican in Alabama and a good performance by Jones.
This was not a public meeting and I was not working as a journalist at the time. This staffer was also no longer employed by Jones.

It's still something they'd want to believe and would make the Jones campaign look good. I remember seeing this argument in an interview with Vox and it doesn't seem plausible tbh. The evidence points strongly that this take is not accurate and the conventional wisdom actually gets this one right. You could argue about how much the pedophilia factor benefited Jones, but it's almost certain that this factor did help him, and likely that it helped him significantly.

The pedophilia factor definitely benefited Jones, though was likely not enough on its own. To get Jones to win, you have to add in Moores racism, his religious extremism, the Republicans trying to pass a deeply unpopular tax bill through Congress in the background, any of these factors being removed causes Moore to win.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #495 on: October 12, 2019, 12:29:33 PM »

Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?

Proud to be a member of the elite 10%. Smiley
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,587
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #496 on: October 12, 2019, 12:35:25 PM »

Seeing Bevin win will truly be hilarious
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #497 on: October 12, 2019, 12:39:24 PM »

This thread is a dumpster fire.
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #498 on: October 12, 2019, 12:47:08 PM »


No. This race unfolded exactly as Mr. IceSpear and Xingerui predicted it would unfold in the first few pages of this thread. People grilled them over it, but it still seems like they aren't getting the credit they deserve.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,587
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #499 on: October 12, 2019, 12:55:00 PM »


Is that because most people are coming to a consensus you don't like?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 [20] 21 22 23 24 25 ... 36  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.079 seconds with 13 queries.