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December 06, 2019, 04:20:05 pm
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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 27244 times)
Calthrina950
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« Reply #550 on: October 22, 2019, 08:49:43 am »

This is an interesting column: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/joseph-gerth/2019/10/21/kentucky-governors-race-poll-results-shows-gop-making-gains/4024226002/. The author argues that Kentucky's gubernatorial election follows a "historical trend" of Democrats enjoying poll leads at the beginning, only to collapse during the final stages of the campaign.

Again, I truly wonder if Bevin will manage to score a double-digit win next month.
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Politician
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« Reply #551 on: October 22, 2019, 09:02:04 am »

#KentuckyDemsInDisarray
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #552 on: October 22, 2019, 08:45:19 pm »

Quote
In this yearís governorís race, Bevin and his surrogates have largely abandoned economic issues in the last weeks of the campaign and have focused almost exclusively on social issues like abortion and trying to instill fear in voters with pictures of scary Latino gang members.

And it just might be working.

But Atlas told me that Democrats lose because they spend too much time on SJW identity politix and not enough time on "kitchen table issues" and "bread and butter issues!" That's why they lose the "WWC" and Appalachia!

Atlas #populists Purple heart just got #triggered
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Xing
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« Reply #553 on: October 22, 2019, 09:07:32 pm »

Quote
In this yearís governorís race, Bevin and his surrogates have largely abandoned economic issues in the last weeks of the campaign and have focused almost exclusively on social issues like abortion and trying to instill fear in voters with pictures of scary Latino gang members.

And it just might be working.

But Atlas told me that Democrats lose because they spend too much time on SJW identity politix and not enough time on "kitchen table issues" and "bread and butter issues!" That's why they lose the "WWC" and Appalachia!

Atlas #populists Purple heart just got #triggered

Shhhh... Don't ruin the talking point that we're ivory tower elitists for having the audacity to suggest that xenophobia/race has anything to do with rural voters in places like Kentucky voting Republican. Wink
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swamiG
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« Reply #554 on: October 25, 2019, 07:58:44 pm »

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55d790f5e4b04ec82cf2bff1/t/5db1ced790cb206ef9b593d4/1571933911898/Results+Release+Final+Kentucky+October+2019.pdf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #555 on: October 25, 2019, 11:29:50 pm »


Even if Beshear wins (not impossible), this will probably be the worst Kentucky poll in a long time.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #556 on: October 26, 2019, 11:40:42 am »


If Beshear does manage to win (LOL), this poll would be slightly more accurate than that McGrath +16 poll
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Politician
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« Reply #557 on: October 26, 2019, 11:42:26 am »


If Beshear does manage to win (LOL), this poll would be slightly more accurate than that McGrath +16 poll
It's also an October poll, even though Beshear should be collapsing.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #558 on: October 26, 2019, 04:31:16 pm »


If Beshear does manage to win (LOL), this poll would be slightly more accurate than that McGrath +16 poll
It's also an October poll, even though Beshear should be collapsing.

Just like Targoz told us Bredesen wasn't collapsing in November, right? Smiley
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #559 on: October 26, 2019, 05:27:31 pm »

If Beshear can bring in Steve Bullock, Sherrod Brown and Big Don to campaign in the East Kentucky coalfields, KY will go back to it's roots and become Safe D, due to #POPULISM.
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swamiG
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« Reply #560 on: October 26, 2019, 10:05:55 pm »

The state of polling in the US is an utter mess rn
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Pericles
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« Reply #561 on: October 26, 2019, 11:05:56 pm »

The state of polling in the US is an utter mess rn

Eh polls overall are pretty good and they mostly got the midterms right, 2016 is framed as a big miss but was a pretty normal miss and indeed nationally the polls were more accurate than in 2012.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #562 on: October 26, 2019, 11:52:46 pm »

What I want to know is: where is Linda Belcher? She'd easily sew this entire race up if she just campaigned on behalf of Beshear!
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Skunk
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« Reply #563 on: October 27, 2019, 12:28:08 am »

What I want to know is: where is Linda Belcher? She'd easily sew this entire race up if she just campaigned on behalf of Beshear!
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DINO Tom
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« Reply #564 on: October 27, 2019, 08:56:34 am »

What I want to know is: where is Linda Belcher? She'd easily sew this entire race up if she just campaigned on behalf of Beshear!

Last seen losing by about 19% in the 2018 GE Tongue 

Anyway, I *generally* lean more towards the ďpredictions should reflect the unexaggerated likelihood of an outcome based on where things stand todayĒ school of thought about electoral predictions and thus, am often going to be more reluctant to call races like 2019 MS Governor or the 2018 NV Governorís race ďSafeĒ (as opposed to ďLikely RĒ and ďLean D,Ē respectively) even when Iím pretty confident from the start how itíll turn out.  That said, I did think Beshear would beat the odds and win until pretty recently and while I still think heíll do significantly better than Conway (who got destroyed IIRC), it looks like heíll still probably lose by like 51%-46%-3%.  Congrats, IceSpear Tongue

I think KY AG is probably gonna be about a 10-16% win for the Republican with the rest of the statewide downballot races in KY, MS, and LA being 20-30 point blowouts.  Hood was never gonna win given that the MS House decides the race if no one wins a majority, but I think he probably loses by 7-8% (6-7% if thereís a Libertarian) with Reeves getting a majority of 53/54%.  I still think Edwards eeks out a victory, but that one will come down to the wire.  I definitely think some Abraham supporters are gonna sit it out, but IDK if thatíll be enough.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #565 on: October 27, 2019, 04:57:27 pm »

Bevin is such an incapable person that he'll need every iota of Trumptardation of the Kentucky electorate to win

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-govs-race-stirs-clash-211243436.html
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #566 on: October 28, 2019, 04:30:28 pm »

Bevin is such an incapable person that he'll need every iota of Trumptardation of the Kentucky electorate to win

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-govs-race-stirs-clash-211243436.html

Sadly for the Republicans, Bevin (who is down by 19%) is the best hope they have just about anywhere. Is the national or local GOP really doing any better?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #567 on: October 28, 2019, 07:16:31 pm »

Bevin is such an incapable person that he'll need every iota of Trumptardation of the Kentucky electorate to win

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-govs-race-stirs-clash-211243436.html

Sadly for the Republicans, Bevin (who is down by 19%) is the best hope they have just about anywhere. Is the national or local GOP really doing any better?

This is not 2007 or 2011 anymore. If you think Bevin going to lose by double digits, then I have a used car to sell you.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #568 on: October 28, 2019, 07:17:26 pm »


Yes it is.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #569 on: October 28, 2019, 07:34:39 pm »


No, it is not. The younger Beshear, if he wins (which he won't), would win by a much smaller margin than his father ever did. The good ol'boys in Elliott, or Knott, or Rowan, or Breathitt County "ain't voting for no Muslim-embracing, Communist-loving, open borders Demoncrats no more." Polarization has greatly damaged the Democratic electoral prospects in Appalachia, to a point from which they may not recover for the foreseeable future. Every other poll I've seen of this race shows a dead heat, and Bevin is starting to pull ahead.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #570 on: October 28, 2019, 07:35:42 pm »


Yes it is.
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #571 on: October 28, 2019, 07:48:30 pm »

[obnoxiously long link deleted]

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

don't post like this you sociopath, there's a hyperlink button for this reason
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Mondale
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« Reply #572 on: October 29, 2019, 12:57:54 am »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 01:01:48 am by Mondale »

I actually just came back from spending a week in Kentucky and most of the voters there told me they are voting  for Bevin due to his support of Trump whose policy of economic nationalism is bringing the jobs back.

They then got into their Japanese automobile and drove to their home built by illegal Hondurans with wood from Canada and drywall from China.
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swamiG
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« Reply #573 on: October 29, 2019, 11:32:15 am »

[obnoxiously long link deleted]

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll canít be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

don't post like this you sociopath, there's a hyperlink button for this reason

Calm your tits
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Skye
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« Reply #574 on: October 29, 2019, 01:44:29 pm »

Do you guys think we'll get another poll? The election is in *checks notes* one week and the only recent polls we have show 1. a tie, and b. a 19-point blowout. I don't buy that Bevin is Safe and the lack of polls certainly don't help to make a confident prediction.
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