2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 163

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 53241 times)
Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #575 on: October 29, 2019, 02:47:46 PM »

Crazy to think just 1 week left tbh
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #576 on: October 29, 2019, 02:58:50 PM »

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #577 on: October 29, 2019, 05:08:59 PM »



Bevin knows his state more than most of the posters here. I've said previously that he might win by low double digits. 6-10 points is definitely a likely outcome at this point.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #578 on: October 29, 2019, 09:00:38 PM »

Keep in mind he’s probably expectation setting. Wouldn’t at all be surprised to see it double digits. I’m expecting something like 54-41 like the 2014 Senate race
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #579 on: October 30, 2019, 07:58:35 AM »

It's sad that Bevin can be so bad and so many horrible things yet many people can't see besides Trump to vote him out. It speaks to the education level and intelligence level of a lot of people tbh.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #580 on: October 30, 2019, 08:52:19 AM »

It's sad that Bevin can be so bad and so many horrible things yet many people can't see besides Trump to vote him out. It speaks to the education level and intelligence level of a lot of people tbh.

Kentucky does have some lousy schools, that's for certain.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #581 on: October 30, 2019, 07:26:01 PM »

It's sad that Bevin can be so bad and so many horrible things yet many people can't see besides Trump to vote him out. It speaks to the education level and intelligence level of a lot of people tbh.

It’d be sad if the voters were forced to choose bad leaders like Bevin. But they aren’t. So I have no pity
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #582 on: October 30, 2019, 07:57:53 PM »


Thank God.
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« Reply #583 on: November 01, 2019, 07:30:47 PM »


No, it is not. The younger Beshear, if he wins (which he won't), would win by a much smaller margin than his father ever did. The good ol'boys in Elliott, or Knott, or Rowan, or Breathitt County "ain't voting for no Muslim-embracing, Communist-loving, open borders Demoncrats no more." Polarization has greatly damaged the Democratic electoral prospects in Appalachia, to a point from which they may not recover for the foreseeable future. Every other poll I've seen of this race shows a dead heat, and Bevin is starting to pull ahead.

Elliott and Rowan County have a good chance of voting for Beshear. Infact, they both will unless its a Bevin blowout statewide, which admittedly cannot be ruled out.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #584 on: November 02, 2019, 01:11:27 AM »

A few maps by Brune, who calculated the county level benchmarks for Beshear (I don’t agree with all of it).

What Beshear needs to do to tie the race statewide:





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IceSpear
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« Reply #585 on: November 02, 2019, 01:55:24 AM »

^Is "high polarization" your favorite one? Wink
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #586 on: November 02, 2019, 08:09:52 AM »

You technically forgot one of the models:



Something near High-polarization though is the likeliest path, perhaps with bit more leeway.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #587 on: November 02, 2019, 11:06:41 PM »

RRH will not release their KY poll, because they got „ridiculous data“ back from their pollster:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/01/weekend-open-thread-for-november-1-3-2019/

This could either mean that pollsters have no clue what’s going on there, or that Beshear was indeed leading by 10%+ in their data and they decided this „cannot be true“ ...
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Donerail
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« Reply #588 on: November 02, 2019, 11:50:55 PM »

given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #589 on: November 03, 2019, 09:18:33 AM »

This could either mean that pollsters have no clue what’s going on there, or that Beshear was indeed leading by 10%+ in their data and they decided this „cannot be true“ ...

Gee, let me guess.

After all, isn't RRH a right-wing pollster? If they had Bevin up at all, they'd release it.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #590 on: November 03, 2019, 10:29:09 AM »

This could either mean that pollsters have no clue what’s going on there, or that Beshear was indeed leading by 10%+ in their data and they decided this „cannot be true“ ...

Gee, let me guess.

After all, isn't RRH a right-wing pollster? If they had Bevin up at all, they'd release it.

Kentucky polls are notoriously unreliable, and in recent years, have been skewed in favor of the Democrats.

given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

RRH was actually pretty accurate in predicting the outcome of those two special elections.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #591 on: November 03, 2019, 10:31:19 AM »

Kentucky polls are notoriously unreliable

Maybe that's because Kentucky elections are notoriously unreliable.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #592 on: November 03, 2019, 10:33:18 AM »

Kentucky polls are notoriously unreliable

Maybe that's because Kentucky elections are notoriously unreliable.

You ignored the last part of my sentence: they have been skewed in favor of the Democrats. The last gubernatorial race there in 2015 is a prime example of this, with Bevin defeating Conway by a margin much wider than had been expected in the polls. At any rate though, you're convinced at this point that Beshear will win in a double-digit landslide, so what else can I say?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #593 on: November 03, 2019, 10:35:55 AM »

You ignored the last part of my sentence: they have been skewed in favor of the Democrats.

Reality is skewed in favor of the Democrats.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #594 on: November 03, 2019, 10:38:18 AM »

You ignored the last part of my sentence: they have been skewed in favor of the Democrats.

Reality is skewed in favor of the Democrats.

Not really. If it were, Clinton would have won in 2016.
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Donerail
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« Reply #595 on: November 03, 2019, 10:39:24 AM »

given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

RRH was actually pretty accurate in predicting the outcome of those two special elections.
No. Their ludicrous junk had Bishop only losing black voters by 4% (he didn't do significantly better than generic R in black-majority precincts), losing 18-29 voters by 4, and winning Cumberland County by 14% (he won by 0.18%). They balanced this by having McCready only losing by 9% in Union County (he lost by 21%) and only losing white voters by 3%. The fact that these bizarre samples happened to cancel each other out does not mean RRH is a good pollster or can be trusted to deliver accurate results under any circumstances.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #596 on: November 03, 2019, 10:44:58 AM »

given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

RRH was actually pretty accurate in predicting the outcome of those two special elections.
No. Their ludicrous junk had Bishop only losing black voters by 4% (he didn't do significantly better than generic R in black-majority precincts), losing 18-29 voters by 4, and winning Cumberland County by 14% (he won by 0.18%). They balanced this by having McCready only losing by 9% in Union County (he lost by 21%) and only losing white voters by 3%. The fact that these bizarre samples happened to cancel each other out does not mean RRH is a good pollster or can be trusted to deliver accurate results under any circumstances.

I'll agree that the crosstabs were terrible, but notice that I stated they were accurate in predicting the outcome of those races. They had Bishop up narrowly over McCready, and Murphy leading Thomas by double digits. And these were the overall results in the races. RRH themselves, moreover, are now trying to find a new and more accurate poll vendor, and they recognize the issues.
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« Reply #597 on: November 03, 2019, 02:45:04 PM »

Keep fighting the good fight Calthrina, you're one of the most accurate pundits on this site at this point.

Anyway because of the fact that there hasn't been any good poll since Mason-Dixon's 46%-46%, I stand by my prediction that Beshear is limited to 47%, maybe 48% at best. Ergo it'll take a large third party siphon from Bevin for Beshear to win (e.g. something like Beshear 48.2% Bevin 48.1% Libertarian 3.7%).

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Donerail
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« Reply #598 on: November 03, 2019, 04:38:05 PM »

No. Their ludicrous junk had Bishop only losing black voters by 4% (he didn't do significantly better than generic R in black-majority precincts), losing 18-29 voters by 4, and winning Cumberland County by 14% (he won by 0.18%). They balanced this by having McCready only losing by 9% in Union County (he lost by 21%) and only losing white voters by 3%. The fact that these bizarre samples happened to cancel each other out does not mean RRH is a good pollster or can be trusted to deliver accurate results under any circumstances.

I'll agree that the crosstabs were terrible, but notice that I stated they were accurate in predicting the outcome of those races. They had Bishop up narrowly over McCready, and Murphy leading Thomas by double digits. And these were the overall results in the races. RRH themselves, moreover, are now trying to find a new and more accurate poll vendor, and they recognize the issues.
If you had a random number generator that happened to generate a number close to the outcome, would you describe the generator as "accurate"? Or would the correct term be "lucky"?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #599 on: November 03, 2019, 06:41:43 PM »

What'll be more interesting at this point is whether the race gets called for Bevin by 10 PM ET or not. If it doesn't, I'd be very optimistic about Beshear actually pulling through.

I believe the polls close at 6 [which is 5 by my clock], and I think it was around 9 PM in 2008 when Lunsford officially lost. Pretty sure it was 9 when McGrath was out too last year. The midpoint the should be around 7:30 PM

However, I'm logging it to 10 PM because that is the general midpoint of the big kahunas, and still very useful with close races. [Ex: LA-GOV Jungle 2019, Edwards settled into 46%, but Abraham was still in second place at the number Rispone ultimately took]
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