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September 19, 2019, 10:40:18 pm
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  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup  (Read 10635 times)
ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« on: May 18, 2019, 02:55:09 pm »

No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.

This is also the same governor who was loudly booed when he came on stage at his state's signature event. Could you ever imagine such a thing happening to Steve Beshear or Happy Chandler? Bevin is Rauner/Christie/Malloy level unpopular, and from the looks of it, he won't change that just by clinging closer to Trump.

Both Malloy and Brownback, despite being more unpopular than Bevin and in less partisan states than Kentucky, won re-election.

In 2014 too. As much as partisanship/polarization is an overused meme of sorts on here, it still continues to have an increasing value even on state-level politics.
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2019, 08:50:53 am »

Around 60% of the ballots cast were in the Democratic primary. We knew that was going to happen, especially with the competitive Democratic primary, but in 2015 there were more votes in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary. I would expect at least a third of Adkins voters and maybe 20% of the others in the Democratic primary to vote for Bevin in the general.

It should a little bit concerning to Bevin not only that Gofforth got 39% against him but also the most Republican region in Kentucky voted for Gofforth the most. It's loyally Republican, so it won't vote against him in the general but Republicans not voting may be a serious problem that could cost him the race.
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2019, 12:13:40 pm »

Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.

Even in October polls will "tighten" to Beshear +5 and then election day will shut down any confidence in Kentucky polling (if there is any left).
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2019, 12:35:08 pm »

Bevin could have an approval rating of 10% and this forum would still call the race Safe R. Should be pretty obvious to everyone that he is in massive trouble.

Less than 10% of this forum is calling this race Safe R.
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2019, 03:48:24 pm »

If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.

Dude calm your sh!t

Well, it'll make for some entertaining look back if/when Bevin wins.
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2019, 04:31:20 pm »

I'm sure they were sweating about TN-SEN as well

I'm sure that by June 2018, the polling was already noticeably and massively shifting in favour of Marsha Blackburn. There was even a poster who had it as their signature with the quote "dumber than Alabama" lol.

This is July: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=296377.0
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2019, 05:37:37 pm »

Why?

Matt Bevin is a provocateur. He's like a slightly more professional but much less likable version of Trump. That's why people hate him but that's also why he'll get re-elected.
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2019, 04:38:54 pm »

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2019, 06:07:46 pm »

Does anybody care about endorsements in 2019?
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,033
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.42, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2019, 03:48:30 pm »

Beshear: *doom and gloom music*
Bevin: Guitar riffs Smiley
...
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