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September 16, 2019, 05:08:32 am
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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup  (Read 9661 times)
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xingkerui
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« on: May 13, 2019, 02:06:59 pm »

No, Safe R.
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xingkerui
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E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2019, 02:45:36 pm »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.
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xingkerui
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E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2019, 04:52:49 pm »


IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Senators Moore and Morrissey can attest to the accuracy of relying solely on a state’s partisan lean and Trump approval for every race.

Neither of those are remotely good comparisons, by the way. Neither Bredesen or Laxalt were going up against an incumbent as absurdly unpopular as Bevin, and neither were in a state with a strong history of voting Democrat for governor/statewide office that has mostly defied its overall strong R trend like Kentucky has. They also were not off-year elections, where whichever party is more motivated to turn out has the advantage, because there is no downballot effect among people turning out primarily for other races.

Moore and Morrissey are actually more appropriate comprisons, because Bevin is unironically about as toxic as Moore in Kentucky and both 2017 and 2019 are off-years, and Beshear is comparable to Manchin in his popularity among ancestral Appalachian Democrats in defiance of the state’s love for Trump and strong GOP trend.

Neither of those are good comparisons, since Bevin hasn't touched underage girls, nor is he running against an incumbent who's extremely popular and had very strong ties to the state for decades. And even so, Jones and Manchin just barely won, even with everything going their way. Unpopular governors have won reelection in states less favorable to their party, so I see no reason to believe Bevin is headed for defeat.
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xingkerui
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2019, 05:08:55 pm »

Adkins leads by 5 votes so far, lol.

Edit: Now 68. Still almost nothing in.
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xingkerui
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2019, 05:44:35 pm »

Beshear will probably pull ahead once we get Louisville and more of Lexington. It could be close, though.
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xingkerui
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2019, 06:28:58 pm »

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R. Anyway, Beshear will probably have this once Jefferson comes in. There just isn't enough left in Eastern Kentucky for Adkins to hold his lead.
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xingkerui
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2019, 06:44:42 pm »

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2019, 06:50:33 pm »

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Yeah, I guess I could've been more clear about that.

Anyway, if we factor in the Fayette numbers, Adkins is actually up by about 9K by now, right? This could actually be very close. It'll depend on whether the remaining Jefferson numbers are as favorable for Beshear as the initial results.
Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."

Oh that's what you meant by D/R primary results. That makes more sense.

Yeah, I should've been more clear about that.

Anyway, it's much closer now that we have Fayette and some of Jefferson. If the current Jefferson numbers are representative, Beshear probably pulls it out, but if Adkins does better in the remaining precincts, he might actually pull this off.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2019, 06:58:33 pm »

Adkins is down to a 1.7% lead, with about a third of Jefferson in. Unless he can do better in the remaining precincts there, this is probably over.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2019, 07:11:15 pm »

Yeah, time for a Wulfric projection. Just about all of Eastern Kentucky is in, and there's more than half of Jefferson left.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2019, 07:16:28 pm »

Beshear probably wins by about 6% when all is said and done.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2019, 08:49:17 pm »

I wonder what percentage of Adkins voters in Elliott county will go to Beshear.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2019, 02:49:05 pm »

I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2019, 09:05:14 pm »

I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.

Sorry for stealing your line.

It's fine if you use the line, just know that it's kind of supposed to be a joke...
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2019, 12:46:37 am »

If Beshear is still ahead comfortably in October, I'll definitely believe that Bevin is in deep trouble. Until then, though, this is one reason why I'm hesitant to believe KY polling.
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xingkerui
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2019, 08:23:41 am »

Yeah, a 5-point lead is bad news for Beshear. It's down from his previous lead, and KY polls are about as reliable as NV polls. Likely R.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2019, 04:55:37 pm »


Yeah, Bevin would be gone in a swing state, but in a state like Kentucky, he can lose a lot of Trump voters and still be fine.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2019, 03:22:57 pm »

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

Unpopular governors winning reelection because the national environment and their state's partisan lean is hardly unprecedented, think Brownback, Raimondo, Blagojevich. However, the national environment isn’t nearly as favorable for Republicans as it was in 2015, so I’m not sure if nationalizing the race or using the Trump playbook will be enough for Bevin. I think the bigger problem for Democrats here is that Beshear is way too liberal for the state on social issues and hasn’t really distanced himself enough from the national party.


Unpopular governors can also win in bad years for their party, if they're running in a favorable state (Malloy, for example.) I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin. If this were only a Republican-leaning state, Bevin would obviously be in big trouble, but I really don't buy him being vulnerable in a state like Kentucky.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 17,324
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2019, 05:54:24 pm »

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change


Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

He’ll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

I can't wait for the posts saying "How did Beshear lose <insert rural county here> to UNPOPULAR BEVIN when he won it in 2015?! Nobody saw this coming!"

I don't think you even need to leave the rural county unnamed Wink. Also, people will be SHOCKED by his margin in Jefferson, and wonder why the statewide vote didn't swing Beshear's way as much as Jefferson does.
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