Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 12, 2019, 05:18:59 am
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, x)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 23980 times)
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« on: September 01, 2019, 07:03:14 pm »


This was true in 2015 too though...
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2019, 07:19:12 pm »

But the reactions here when Bevin wins are gonna be pretty funny.

At this rate, a Beshear win would be funnier.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2019, 08:10:09 pm »

What are some gubernatorial races with similar dynamics in states as Democratic as Kentucky is Republican? What were the results of those (not just who won but the margin)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election

Keep in mind the turnout for that one was abysmally low.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2019, 06:41:43 pm »

What'll be more interesting at this point is whether the race gets called for Bevin by 10 PM ET or not. If it doesn't, I'd be very optimistic about Beshear actually pulling through.

I believe the polls close at 6 [which is 5 by my clock], and I think it was around 9 PM in 2008 when Lunsford officially lost. Pretty sure it was 9 when McGrath was out too last year. The midpoint the should be around 7:30 PM

However, I'm logging it to 10 PM because that is the general midpoint of the big kahunas, and still very useful with close races. [Ex: LA-GOV Jungle 2019, Edwards settled into 46%, but Abraham was still in second place at the number Rispone ultimately took]
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2019, 05:00:59 pm »

Politico works just as well. Much more useful for this than the actual articles.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2019, 06:10:15 pm »

Bevin is smoking it so far.

EDIT: Ok, now it's narrowed slightly for Beshear.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2019, 06:14:55 pm »

I don't think Beshear was supposed to outright win Menifee County.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2019, 06:46:29 pm »

Bevin back in the lead.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2019, 07:10:25 pm »

Welp, Beshear won Bath County by 6.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2019, 07:30:24 pm »

1/4 of all precincts in, and Bevin leads by 5.3
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2019, 07:52:09 pm »

My Bevin +6 prediction seems to be coming true.

This good results for Beshear are tempting, but this is Kentucky and Matt Bevin will triumph (unfortunately for Kentuckians).
I would not say this is consistent with the results so far... Beshear is currently leading.

No he isn't, he's down by 4 and a good chunk of Jefferson is in...not good.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2019, 08:11:27 pm »

Ah, now it's looks like we're getting something promising for Beshear.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,489
United States


« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2019, 08:35:49 pm »

Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?

We were right.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC