2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Mr. Smith]

Bevin doing everything he can to lose

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Bevin-says-primary-challenger-Rep-Robert-Goforth-is-a-name-so-easily-forgotten-557894411.html

Here's a longer article on the rift between Bevin and Goforth along with the contrast of Beshear and Rocky being BFFs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-governors-remark-stirs-spat-174531198.html

This was true in 2015 too though...

[Mr. Smith]

But the reactions here when Bevin wins are gonna be pretty funny.

At this rate, a Beshear win would be funnier.

[Mr. Smith]

What are some gubernatorial races with similar dynamics in states as Democratic as Kentucky is Republican? What were the results of those (not just who won but the margin)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election

Keep in mind the turnout for that one was abysmally low.

[Mr. Smith]

What'll be more interesting at this point is whether the race gets called for Bevin by 10 PM ET or not. If it doesn't, I'd be very optimistic about Beshear actually pulling through.

I believe the polls close at 6 [which is 5 by my clock], and I think it was around 9 PM in 2008 when Lunsford officially lost. Pretty sure it was 9 when McGrath was out too last year. The midpoint the should be around 7:30 PM

However, I'm logging it to 10 PM because that is the general midpoint of the big kahunas, and still very useful with close races. [Ex: LA-GOV Jungle 2019, Edwards settled into 46%, but Abraham was still in second place at the number Rispone ultimately took]

[Mr. Smith]

Politico works just as well. Much more useful for this than the actual articles.

[Mr. Smith]

Bevin is smoking it so far.

EDIT: Ok, now it's narrowed slightly for Beshear.

[Mr. Smith]

I don't think Beshear was supposed to outright win Menifee County.

[Mr. Smith]

Bevin back in the lead.

[Mr. Smith]

Welp, Beshear won Bath County by 6.

[Mr. Smith]

1/4 of all precincts in, and Bevin leads by 5.3

[Mr. Smith]

My Bevin +6 prediction seems to be coming true.

This good results for Beshear are tempting, but this is Kentucky and Matt Bevin will triumph (unfortunately for Kentuckians).

I would not say this is consistent with the results so far... Beshear is currently leading.

No he isn't, he's down by 4 and a good chunk of Jefferson is in...not good.

[Mr. Smith]

Ah, now it's looks like we're getting something promising for Beshear.

[Mr. Smith]

Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?

We were right.