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September 15, 2019, 03:49:26 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1Bevin (R)  
#2Beshear (D)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 47

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, It's a Bevin vs Beshear GE Matchup  (Read 9506 times)
Bagel23
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Posts: 10,381
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« on: May 21, 2019, 04:38:23 pm »



Rain in Northern Kentucky
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Bagel23
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Posts: 10,381
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2019, 04:41:52 pm »

Umm honestly I think this thing is overhyped, I think Adkins and Edelen’s chances in the primary are overstated, especially Adkins, and Beshear will win fairly comfortably, this is a total guess but I am going to guess that Beshear is somewhere near half of the vote, Adkins clocking in around 25 and Edelen maybe at like 20 and others at 5

And whoever wins the primary will lose substantially to Matt Bevin, so it is all in vain anyways.
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Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,381
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2019, 04:58:06 pm »

Edelen is overhyped, I doubt he absolutely dominates in Jeffco or Fayetteco
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Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,381
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2019, 05:54:09 pm »

Nothing overly surprising here
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Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,381
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2019, 06:16:01 pm »

Adkins is probably getting demolished among blacks in jeffco and fayette co which helps beshear big league
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Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,381
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2019, 10:16:40 pm »

Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.
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Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,381
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2019, 01:12:28 am »

If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.

Dude calm your sh!t
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Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,381
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2019, 08:43:25 am »

Honestly this is starting to give me Kelly-Kobach vibes a tiny bit. Still not convinced that Bevin goes down in the end, but this is playing awfully similar.

I was considering posting this but I didn't want to jinx anything, but I gotta to say this brings a valid opinion up.
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Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,381
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2019, 10:45:23 am »

Yo Fancy Farm is tomorrow who is excited?
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Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,381
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2019, 01:01:59 pm »



Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer
A couple of points about this whole thing-

1. The races that are always cited as evidence- KY GOV 2015 and KY SEN 2014, is not enough to set a precedent. Contrast this with Nevada for example, where we have literally a decade of democrats consistently overperforming polls. Races such as the 2010 senate race show an opposite trend.

2. Both of these races were republican waves, especially in terms of turnout. In this race, I think we can expect turnout to be neutral if not benefitting the democrats.

Who cares wave year or not it is ky, and the reddening of ky will overwhelm whatever "blue wave" there might be turnout wise this year.
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Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,381
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2019, 06:19:03 pm »

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.
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