2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/MattJonesRadio/status/1130947996865171456

Rain in Northern Kentucky

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Umm honestly I think this thing is overhyped, I think Adkins and Edelen’s chances in the primary are overstated, especially Adkins, and Beshear will win fairly comfortably, this is a total guess but I am going to guess that Beshear is somewhere near half of the vote, Adkins clocking in around 25 and Edelen maybe at like 20 and others at 5

And whoever wins the primary will lose substantially to Matt Bevin, so it is all in vain anyways.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Edelen is overhyped, I doubt he absolutely dominates in Jeffco or Fayetteco

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nothing overly surprising here

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Adkins is probably getting demolished among blacks in jeffco and fayette co which helps beshear big league

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not surprising results at all tonight, yeah Beshear! He will get stomped by Bevin though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.

Dude calm your sh!t

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The R Senator who represents Bullitt and part of Jefferson endorsed Beshear today

https://www.wymt.com/content/news/Republican-lawmaker-endorses-Democratic-nominee-for-governor-513337441.html

Honestly this is starting to give me Kelly-Kobach vibes a tiny bit. Still not convinced that Bevin goes down in the end, but this is playing awfully similar.

I was considering posting this but I didn't want to jinx anything, but I gotta to say this brings a valid opinion up.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yo Fancy Farm is tomorrow who is excited?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1159276367042830344?s=21

Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer

A couple of points about this whole thing-

1. The races that are always cited as evidence- KY GOV 2015 and KY SEN 2014, is not enough to set a precedent. Contrast this with Nevada for example, where we have literally a decade of democrats consistently overperforming polls. Races such as the 2010 senate race show an opposite trend.

2. Both of these races were republican waves, especially in terms of turnout. In this race, I think we can expect turnout to be neutral if not benefitting the democrats.

Who cares wave year or not it is ky, and the reddening of ky will overwhelm whatever "blue wave" there might be turnout wise this year.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Reason number 728,393 Bevin should lose

https://mobile.twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1173655794937712643

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary “illegal job stealers and rapists” that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you can’t even make this stuff up

No Coal was 75% of the reason and still is. That ad will only help Bevin in efforts to turnout the hard core of hardcore base

Which is what, like half of the electorate of Kentucky?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.

I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119

Tbh I remember saying Edmobdson had a chance. Boy was I wrong.

It still pains me the extent to which so many Republican states have become implacably partisan. Fallin left office with horrific approval ratings, and yet Oklahoma still remained fiercely loyal to its majority party. I don't think a Democrat will win a statewide election there again for decades to come.

Yeah, rip Wokelahoma.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Count me in too, Beshear is going to get beat by high single digits.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1191515001485451267

OMG I am literally dying XD

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Reminder, CD's 1 and 2 don't close till 7pm ET in KY, and if Beshear cannot lead by at least low to mid singles in the combined 3,4,5, and 6 CD vote, he's just 120% toast.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/kypoljunkie/status/1191797805217652737?s=21

If that's true, Beshear might as well start measuring the drapes in the Governor's Mansion.

Drapes are not populist, shame on you.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Don Blankenship’s hometown Stopover Pike co KY

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bevin is still talking about this as if he can still be the winner. What a sore loser. Maybe it's good for the KY Republican party to get rid of him in the long run. Cameron could be a good candidate to take on Beshear in 2023 and would keep the 'AG running for governor' streak going.

Honestly this is the correct take 120%. If I was a Kentucky Republican, I'd just shut this embarrassing and crappy chapter and not make Beshear taking office difficult and say hasta la vista to Bevin forever and try to forget it ever happened. Then I'd make sure Beshear was a sitting duck who does nothing for 4 years and then gets defeated. And then make sure to not nominate incompetent idiots like Bevin in the future and hold KY for a long time. The end.