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December 10, 2019, 10:30:19 pm
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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins (search mode)
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Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
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Total Voters: 165

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 27430 times)
Beshear al Assad
peenie_weenie
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« on: May 22, 2019, 09:55:26 am »

Eastern Kentucky seems to have really liked Rocky Adkins. Huge margins in coal country for him, up to 90% in Rowan. Why?

Adkins is vocally pro-ilfe and Beshear (and Edelen) were not. Also Adkins is from EKY (Elliott County I think?) and Beshear and Edelen were from further west.

Steve Beshear was also pro-choice and was able to do well in EKY so maybe Andy would still be able to pick up a lot of these voters? I'm always worried when these culture wars issues crop up in rural D areas though so I'm not confident about Beshear winning over Adkins voters on this issue.

Here's another interesting wrinkle:

Quote
Kentucky's pension crisis may be the key issue of this year's election. Every candidate agrees that we are in a mess that needs to be cleaned up. Beshear and Adkins both say that Bevin's tactics have been wholly unsuccessful.

"When this governor tried to slash pensions, I went to the Supreme Court and personally argued for the promised pensions of more than 200,000 teachers, police officers, firefighters, EMS, social workers and nearly all city and county employees in Kentucky," Beshear said on his campaign website.

"What happened to educators and public employees during Matt Bevin's administration is inexcusable," Adkins says on his campaign website. Adkins also told WFPL that he is against privatizing public pensions.

[...]

Matt Bevin has defended his actions, saying that has attacked the pension crisis head-on. "I've never wavered from my original promise to give everything I have...to fix this problem," he said on his campaign website. He says he fought against political pressure and those who tried to come against him "because it was the right thing to do."

Robert Goforth says that pensions are a promise made to city employees and that it is a promise that cannot be broken. "We need to quit alarming people and start finding effective solutions," he says on his campaign website.

(Where do the candidates for Kentucky's governor stand on key issues? - from WHAS)

I'd love for EKY voters from old union households/families to to turn out for state pensioners but I'm not confident in that either. Maybe this is part of why Goforth did so well in the Southeast? Scott Walker was able to maintain popularity after Act 10 by turning rural voters against public sector workers by painting them as "elites" predominantly from the major metro areas of Wisconsin. Beshear (Vanderbilt/UVA educated lawyer from Lexington) seems like a good target for some class-based rural resentment even if Bevin is not popular. Adkins maybe would have had some more authority here.

I know lots of things are different but I'm getting a Wisconsin 2014 vibe here...
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