2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Tender Branson]

It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

[Tender Branson]

It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

There it is:

https://www.scribd.com/document/430472409/Mason-Dixon-Kentucky-Poll

[Tender Branson]

RRH will not release their KY poll, because they got „ridiculous data“ back from their pollster:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/01/weekend-open-thread-for-november-1-3-2019/

This could either mean that pollsters have no clue what’s going on there, or that Beshear was indeed leading by 10%+ in their data and they decided this „cannot be true“ ...

[Tender Branson]

It’s raining in Louisville.

Beshear doomed !

[Tender Branson]

How can turnout be „heavy“ there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

[Tender Branson]

How can turnout be „heavy“ there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

Because they're comparing it to the previous gubernatorial election?

That was the 2015 election ...

[Tender Branson]

How can turnout be „heavy“ there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

Because they're comparing it to the previous gubernatorial election?

That was the 2015 election ...

Re-read the tweet. 200 votes today at 1 PM vs 40 at that time in 2015.

I know.

But it could mean that people are just voting earlier in the day this time and fewer in the afternoon.

[Tender Branson]

How can turnout be „heavy“ there with 200 votes cast, when 600 have been cast there in the low turnout 2015 election?

Because they're comparing it to the previous gubernatorial election?

That was the 2015 election ...

Re-read the tweet. 200 votes today at 1 PM vs 40 at that time in 2015.

I know.

But it could mean that people are just voting earlier in the day this time and fewer in the afternoon.

nah turnout is always higher the later in the day you get in the USA

Maybe not this time, because a lot have voted until 1pm already ...

Would be good though if higher turnout happens, because the US really sucks balls with it’s 30% turnouts ...

[Tender Branson]

High (in crappy US terms) turnout isn’t necessarily good for Democrats.

It always depends what the mood among an electorate is at a given point in time.

Republicans can win a landslide in a 10% turnout election, or can do so in a 95% turnout election.

The same for Democrats.

I expect turnout to be up a bit from 2015, but not by a lot. It was a disgustingly low 30% or something in 2015, so it’s probably 35% today statewide.

Still totally abysmal when compared internationally for such an important office.

[Tender Branson]

Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1192086052628029440
Or are they releasing it just now?

Missing this poll was a huge failure on the part of Atlas.  I blame Tender.

Never seen this one before.

It wasn’t even posted on Wikipedia ...

[Tender Branson]

When can we expect the votes to be certified? Any news on the Bevin allegations/recanvassing/legislature front?

Today in 2 weeks, says the KY election calendar.

[Tender Branson]

When can we expect the votes to be certified? Any news on the Bevin allegations/recanvassing/legislature front?

The recanvass occurs Thursday.

My prediction:

Not more than a net 30 votes will change statewide.

[Tender Branson]

A group of "concerned" voters speak out on their thoughts of maybe possible fraud somewhere

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Group-of-voters-share-their-concerns-on-governors-race-564769502.html

"We've heard complaints. We've heard about record turnout, yet I haven't talked to a single person in Fayette County who waited in line anywhere to vote despite record turnout. Things just don't add up. As voters, we want to know what is going on. As voters, we want to know [if] anyone is looking into this," said Erika Calihan, a concerned voter.

The group says they hoped to talk about specific evidence at the news conference, but they were not able to do that.

These people really should be locked up.

Stopped reading after "record turnout".

These concerned women think 40% turnout is "record high" ... LOL.

[Tender Branson]

The statewide re-canvass is scheduled for tomorrow.

A re-canvass is not a recount ... read more here:

https://eu.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/13/kentucky-governor-race-what-know-bevins-requested-recanvass/2577825001/

[Tender Branson]

Bevin concedes.

Good riddance.

[Tender Branson]

Here are the official re-canvass results for Governor:

http://web.sos.ky.gov/electionmall/recanvass.aspx

Only 1 vote out of 1.5 million votes cast changed.