2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Alben Barkley]

Short answer: Yes, and he will.

Long answer: Quoting my own response from another thread...

Some of these posts are so bad I — a lurker — literally felt compelled to sign up just to rebut them.

Clearly many of you understand little about Kentucky politics, but know just enough to be dangerous. As someone born and raised in the state, and who is very in-tune with its current political climate, allow me to explain a few things:

Yes, Kentucky has become far more inflexibly Republican over the past couple decades, and yes, this trend has been seen to some extent even in state level races. BUT that does not mean it is lost to Democrats forever in any race for any office against any candidate.

Jack Conway was a rather disliked figure in the state, or at least not particularly liked. There was little-to-no enthusiasm among just about anyone in the state to vote for Conway, not even among those who would have voted for him if forced to choose, which was why turnout was abysmal that year and why he lost decisively even though he led in the polls. It said nothing about Matt Bevin’s popularity in particular or a total reversal of Kentucky’s tendency to favor Democratic governors in spite of its heavy lean towards Republicans on the presidential/senatorial level. It just said everything about poorly motivated Democratic voters and strongly motivated Republican voters in 2015.

Now, however, Matt Bevin is an exceedingly unpopular known quantity who will most likely run against the son of a very popular governor — who won two statewide landslides within the last 15 years, long after the state went deep red — who himself managed to win statewide office the same year Bevin did, with far more voter enthusiasm in the Democrats’ favor this year than in 2015. He’s toast.

And I say this not just based on wishful thinking or some Louisville or Lexington bubble; my staunchly GOP, Trump voting relatives in south central and eastern Kentucky called Bevin, and I quote, “a f—ing idiot” last time I talked to them. He is literally the least popular governor in the country. His tenure has been plagued by extremely unpopular decisions and mutiny from his own party, which he has no firm grasp on or strong support from whatsoever. He has been booed heavily during speeches in eastern Kentucky and even at the Kentucky Derby. He’s about as popular as Roger Goodell now. Beshear will wipe the floor with him.

And no, a Trump endorsement will not save him any more than it saved Roy Moore, Patrick Morrissey, etc. Kentucky might be inelastic at the national level, and its recent polling history might be dubious, but I am still confident the state is capable for voting Democrat for governor against an incumbent as ridiculously bad as Matt Bevin, who is less popular than Ernie Fletcher ever was.

Yes, I base much of this on anecdotal experience, personal conversation, and gut instinct — but that proved more reliable than polls in 2016, when I became convinced Trump would win after driving through Ohio and Michigan and seeing Trump signs everywhere but no Hillary signs. Now I get the opposite feeling in this race; the support for Bevin is just not there. Everyone I know from all over the state and the political spectrum either openly hates him or is lukewarm about him at best. Beshear will win comfortably, improving on his own 2015 AG map. Mark my words.

[Alben Barkley]

No, Safe R.

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Senators Moore and Morrissey can attest to the accuracy of relying solely on a state’s partisan lean and Trump approval for every race.

Neither of those are remotely good comparisons, by the way. Neither Bredesen or Laxalt were going up against an incumbent as absurdly unpopular as Bevin, and neither were in a state with a strong history of voting Democrat for governor/statewide office that has mostly defied its overall strong R trend like Kentucky has. They also were not off-year elections, where whichever party is more motivated to turn out has the advantage, because there is no downballot effect among people turning out primarily for other races.

Moore and Morrissey are actually more appropriate comprisons, because Bevin is unironically about as toxic as Moore in Kentucky and both 2017 and 2019 are off-years, and Beshear is comparable to Manchin in his popularity among ancestral Appalachian Democrats in defiance of the state’s love for Trump and strong GOP trend.

[Alben Barkley]

No, Safe R.

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor.

Again, I do not think you understand just HOW unpopular Bevin is, even in deep red Trump country. No one outside Kentucky could. It is not comparable to ANY of these other races people bring up. At all. The other states themselves are not quite comparable to Kentucky either in terms of their state party dynamics and history, and the candidates running against these Republicans were not comparable to Beshear either. Manchin is probably the closest analogy applicable here.

[Alben Barkley]

Yeah, I’m now even more convinced than before that Bevin is screwed. Got BTFO in some very deep red counties. Turnout for him will be atrocious. Beshear will win big in the cities and take some ancestral Dem rural counties. Wins statewide by 2-3 points at least.

[Alben Barkley]

More embarssing for Bevin than losing those hick counties that are almost all gonna vote for him besides maybe something like Elliot(I don't think its completely gone locally if the 2018 house result was +12 and its clearly like Safe D if Adkins is the nominee) is the fact he doesn't even have a majority in campbell county.

My hot take is that a hypothetical Beshear win over Bevin would include Oldham County and one or two of the Cincinnati suburban counties going blue while East KY still stays red. Adkins probably could have had a parochial bounce there but I doubt Beshear is the one to resurrect those Appalachian Dems

I think Adkins may have had a better chance at flipping a handful of those Eastern counties, looking at the map, but probably Beshear still had/has the best chance overall of winning the state. Those Eastern counties that voted for Adkins and Goforth will probably split their votes, but enthusiasm for Bevin is absolutely nonexistent across the state. The most motivated voters on Election Day will be Beshear voters. “Not Bevin” is hands down the most popular candidate in the state.

[Alben Barkley]

Andy Beshear winning more votes than Bevin is just hilarious.

Will happen again in November.

[Alben Barkley]

I know this wasn’t exactly the most scientific of polls, but still, LOL.



I can tell you just about everyone in Kentucky watches LEX 18, and based on the comments of some of their other posts, the Facebook page is populated with a considerable number of Trumpers and boomers. And there were over 34,000 votes, so it was a large sample even if it wasn’t representative. So the fact that Bevin still lost it by that much is pretty pathetic.

[Alben Barkley]

If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.