2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins (user search)
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  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 163

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 53242 times)
Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,253
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« on: October 06, 2019, 11:54:28 PM »

Could we possibly, PLEASE, withhold calling this race and calling everyone who disagrees idiots until we actually get some, y'know, real polling??

I mean yes, KY is ruby red and pro-Trump, but has shown even in this decade a willingness to vote Democratic down ballot. Bevin has horrific favorables and is running a poor campaign, plus Beshear is a good candidate.

Can we just universally call this Lean R/Undecided until polling arrives?

Truly, beyond what I mentioned above, no one really has any clue how this race is shaping up.
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Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,253
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2019, 12:27:51 AM »

Could we possibly, PLEASE, withhold calling this race and calling everyone who disagrees idiots until we actually get some, y'know, real polling??

I mean yes, KY is ruby red and pro-Trump, but has shown even in this decade a willingness to vote Democratic down ballot. Bevin has horrific favorables and is running a poor campaign, plus Beshear is a good candidate.

Can we just universally call this Lean R/Undecided until polling arrives?

Truly, beyond what I mentioned above, no one really has any clue how this race is shaping up.

In one ear.... Roll Eyes
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Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,253
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2019, 08:03:52 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 08:32:41 PM by Badger »

You technically forgot one of the models:



Something near High-polarization though is the likeliest path, perhaps with bit more leeway.

Which Brashear won by 6.
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Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,253
United States


« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2019, 11:08:41 AM »

In the defence of those of us who called this Safe R (and sure, we don't have much of one but hear me out), we were (I certainly was at least) approaching this race very logically - polarisation and the urban-rural divide, coupled with basically every election result since the midterms pointing towards both of those things increasing, led to a fairly logical conclusion. It just turned out this wasn't a very logical race and thus produced an illogical outcome.

It does however lead to a new logical conclusion - Democrats can win in red states if they're a moderate with deep ties to the state and they're up against really bad Republican candidates. It was how Manchin won and it was how Beshear won. At least that's how it looks now.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it. I'm going back to looking an election that actually has consequences for me.

I'm sorry, but no. Declaring Bevin winning as the overwhelming likelihood was foolish considering there was almost no worthwhile pulling in the race, no very few holes worth a damn such as Mason-Dixon showed a neck and neck race, and Bevan had among the worst approval ratings of any governor in the country.
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Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,253
United States


« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2019, 08:10:06 PM »

BREAKING NEWS: Group of Voters Thinks Their Candidate Should Have Won, Can't Believe He Didn't

I think what blows my mind about this is how lazy it is.  It almost as if it's an Onion man on the street bit.

Yes. These so-called concerned voters are obviously a bunch of Bevin campaign supporters / workers. Didn't anyone have the nominal amount of journalistic insight ask this question. It's not like they met up on Facebook and called the press conference
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