2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

lmfao this dude's not gonna win, y'all!

https://twitter.com/courierjournal/status/1168870528356179968

A State Senator from your own party hosting a party to commemorate what a jackass you are — featuring your own Lieutenant Governor!

But what about polarization??!?!!

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

I'm of the opinion that approval and favorability numbers are more of a factor in Gubernatorial elections, while normal partisan leans take precedent in presidential and congressional elections. I think there is recent precedent for that view in KS Governor 18 and LA Governor 15, especially in the latter case. The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

That's why I believe Bevin will loose this race, he simply seems to be so thoroughly unpopular in Kentucky that Beshear has a shot. Now, if this was a Senate race we were talking about, there'd be no chance in hell that the Democrat would prevail, no matter how unpopular MoscowMitch becomes, but I still believe there is a huge difference between how polarized the electorate is regarding state elections, compared with national ones.

Though I might be proven to be too optimistic. We'll just have to wait til November and see. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Not only do we not know how this race between Bevin and Beshear is going to end the race to be the Governor of Stupidville is a complete toss-up between these two: 

Beshear is gonna win this and hopefully this the beginning of the end of McConnell. This race is a referendum on McConnell whose wife Chao, works for Trump

A black man was President. Duh. I’m sure all these places will stop swinging Republican next year though after the coal industry has all but died out under Trump.

🙄

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

This is interesting, McConnell didn't want Trump to get invovled in Kentucky because he didn't want a potential loss to harm his reputation.

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1191350743497883648?s=20

MoscowMitch is obviously delusional if he thinks there is any way Bevin could lose. IceSpear need to tell McConell straight about Bevin victory being about as sure as the sun raising in the morning.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Not every day you get to wake up to such glorious news! The most punchable and disgusting Governor in the US getting exactly what he deserves!

It's also doubly satisfying considering how bullish a great number of posters have been about Bevin winning, ridiculing anyone who even dared to suggest Beshear might have a shot.   

I would hope people would learn from this, but having been on Atlas for a decade now I know people will forget this lesson in two heart-beats and will be back to making super-confident predictions and assumptions in time for the presidential election in a year.

Anyway, I'll be unbearably self-congratulatory on getting this one right:

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

I'm of the opinion that approval and favorability numbers are more of a factor in Gubernatorial elections, while normal partisan leans take precedent in presidential and congressional elections. I think there is recent precedent for that view in KS Governor 18 and LA Governor 15, especially in the latter case. The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

That's why I believe Bevin will loose this race, he simply seems to be so thoroughly unpopular in Kentucky that Beshear has a shot. Now, if this was a Senate race we were talking about, there'd be no chance in hell that the Democrat would prevail, no matter how unpopular MoscowMitch becomes, but I still believe there is a huge difference between how polarized the electorate is regarding state elections, compared with national ones.

Though I might be proven to be too optimistic. We'll just have to wait til November and see. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Just wait til the legislature steps in and declares Bevin the winner.

They can't. It would be unconstitutional and any such attempt would be killed off by the courts quickly. 

The Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected for the term of four years by the qualified voters of the State.  They shall be elected jointly by the casting by each voter of a single vote applicable to both offices, as shall be provided by law.  The slate of candidates having the highest number of votes cast jointly for them for Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be elected

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

This is an embarrassing result for Trump, but hardly disastrous for the Kentucky Republican Party.  Given that the GOP has won all other statewide races, they are in a prime position to build up a stronger bench for future gubernatorial races (and avoiding having to nominate candidates like Ernie Fletcher and Matt Bevin ever again). 

You should never underestimate the Republicans ability to nominate candidates like Matt Bevin, even in cases where they have a strong bench.