2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Donerail]

FWIW Google Trends shows a pretty tight  race with Edelen slightly ahead with Beshear in 3rd. Falls closely in line with $$$ #'s we've seen, Edelen has been spending the most by far out of the field with Adkins surprisingly out raising Beshear.

You don't need to google Beshear's kid to know who he is. You probably need to google the state rep from Sandy Hook. Don't think we should use this as a substitute for polling here.

[Donerail]

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

[Donerail]

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.

what on earth does the marquette poll in 2016 have to do with polling in Kentucky in 2018

[Donerail]

lmfao this dude's not gonna win, y'all!

https://twitter.com/courierjournal/status/1168870528356179968

A State Senator from your own party hosting a party to commemorate what a jackass you are — featuring your own Lieutenant Governor!

[Donerail]

I will not buy any hype on this race until I see Beshear winning. Or the credible polls have him ahead outside the MoE, over 50% and days before the election.

then why are you posting in this thread

[Donerail]

McDowell County, WV, 2008:
OBAMA: 53%
McCain: 45%

McDowell County, WV, 2016:
TRUMP: 74%
Clinton: 23%

The rural hicks of West Virginia are all voting Republican now b/c they hate Barack Obama, which is why they... voted for him.

[Donerail]

You’re the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess we’ll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?

[Donerail]

You’re the guy that thinks McGrath can win right, because McConnell stiffed a bunch of coal miners. I guess we’ll see who ends up right about this one in a year

Nah, the #1 thing I think is that you're an idiot who's evading the question. What happened between 2008 and 2016 that turned a bunch of people who were fine with voting for Barack Obama into these reactionaries that you think they are?

You conveniently left out the violent swing from Kerry to McCain in a lot of these places despite a cratered economy, two wars, and tons of Republican vorruption

Not relevant. What happened between 2008 and 2016?

[Donerail]

Not relevant. What happened between 2008 and 2016?

A black man was President. Duh. I’m sure all these places will stop swinging Republican next year though after the coal industry has all but died out under Trump.

🙄

You think they found out he was black after they voted for him? Walked into the polling booth, saw "Barack Hussein Obama," thought "huh, sounds like a Slovak or something," saw him on TV later and realized he's black? Because right now you're arguing that the very fact of Obama being president made people who voted for Obama get more racist.

[Donerail]

You think they found out he was black after they voted for him? Walked into the polling booth, saw "Barack Hussein Obama," thought "huh, sounds like a Slovak or something," saw him on TV later and realized he's black? Because right now you're arguing that the very fact of Obama being president made people who voted for Obama get more racist.

Yes. And frankly I have better things to do with my time than argue with someone who thinks Mitch McConnell has a decent chance of losing to a Democrat

lmfao massive IQ on this dude

[Donerail]

IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

Anyway, on topic — have to read the FOP endorsement as a good omen. Pretty clear in the downballot races (with the possible exception of AG? not sure where Stumbo is on policing) they're just trying to pick winners.

[Donerail]

LOL. But again, I'm sure Atlas posters from CA/IL/MA/OR who have never been to Appalachia know better than the people who actually have.

1. Not from Illinois.
2. In Tennessee right now.

[Donerail]

AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

[Donerail]

AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.

No, it's the other way around — it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

[Donerail]

No, it's the other way around — it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

Man, that is a scorching red hot chili pepper take if I've ever seen one.

It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

[Donerail]

It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

Tbh the Jones people have an incentive to spin the results as a mandate for Doug Jones and not just a fluke caused by Moore's pedophilia accusations. The public polling also showed a sharp trend towards Jones as a result of the accusations and Moore never got back to the same lead he had beforehand. Without the accusations I think Moore wins by high single digits, which would still have been an embarrassing performance for a Republican in Alabama and a good performance by Jones.

This was not a public meeting and I was not working as a journalist at the time. This staffer was also no longer employed by Jones.

[Donerail]

Beshear's numbers CRATERING among Kentucky's Acadian voters. devastating blow to his campaign

[Donerail]

Yeah Beshear is definitely losing. How much will depend on what polls we get if any .

Why would his margin of defeat depend on whether or not a poll is published

[Donerail]

[obnoxiously long link deleted]

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This poll can’t be real. Beshear leading Bevin...by 19

don't post like this you sociopath, there's a hyperlink button for this reason

[Donerail]

given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

[Donerail]

given the garbage-tier polls they put out for the NC specials, I assume it's something where Beshear wins despite Bevin carrying 40% of black voters

RRH was actually pretty accurate in predicting the outcome of those two special elections.

No. Their ludicrous junk had Bishop only losing black voters by 4% (he didn't do significantly better than generic R in black-majority precincts), losing 18-29 voters by 4, and winning Cumberland County by 14% (he won by 0.18%). They balanced this by having McCready only losing by 9% in Union County (he lost by 21%) and only losing white voters by 3%. The fact that these bizarre samples happened to cancel each other out does not mean RRH is a good pollster or can be trusted to deliver accurate results under any circumstances.

[Donerail]

No. Their ludicrous junk had Bishop only losing black voters by 4% (he didn't do significantly better than generic R in black-majority precincts), losing 18-29 voters by 4, and winning Cumberland County by 14% (he won by 0.18%). They balanced this by having McCready only losing by 9% in Union County (he lost by 21%) and only losing white voters by 3%. The fact that these bizarre samples happened to cancel each other out does not mean RRH is a good pollster or can be trusted to deliver accurate results under any circumstances.

I'll agree that the crosstabs were terrible, but notice that I stated they were accurate in predicting the outcome of those races. They had Bishop up narrowly over McCready, and Murphy leading Thomas by double digits. And these were the overall results in the races. RRH themselves, moreover, are now trying to find a new and more accurate poll vendor, and they recognize the issues.

If you had a random number generator that happened to generate a number close to the outcome, would you describe the generator as "accurate"? Or would the correct term be "lucky"?

[Donerail]

What kind of loser makes up voting numbers?

Someone who wants to juice the predictit markets

[Donerail]

God, I was gonna go through and find all the dumb "Bevin's gonna crush it" predictions but y'all keep posting them! Thank you!