Most likely path for Mitt Romney in 2012?
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Author Topic: Most likely path for Mitt Romney in 2012?  (Read 1585 times)
538Electoral
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« on: May 13, 2019, 09:22:30 AM »
I think Romney would've had to have won Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania to win.



Romney 286
Obama 252
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Solid4096
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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2019, 11:10:36 AM »
Quote from: 538Electoral on May 13, 2019, 09:22:30 AM
I think Romney would've had to have won Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania to win.



Romney 286
Obama 252

Romney would not have needed Virginia if he won through Pennsylvania after Florida and Ohio. He would however have needed Virginia if he won through Colorado after Florida and Ohio.
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2019, 12:00:31 PM »
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2019, 02:54:13 AM »


Doesn't exactly answer your question, but I think this would be the most realistic Romney wins map
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2019, 08:51:03 PM »


275 EVs
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2019, 11:32:01 PM »
I think Colorado would be a difficult reach to be Romney's 270th vote. He'd clearly need to flip FL and OH, that's for sure. After that, I think the easiest path would be thru PA since Romney made greater inroads there than any of the other states that would get him to 270.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2019, 10:16:46 AM »

Romney wasn't going to win Colorado in 2012 even if he won the election.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2019, 08:17:35 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2019, 03:37:08 AM by Lechasseur »
The states he won+FL, OH, VA, CO
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2019, 09:49:44 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2019, 05:47:38 AM by Pericles »
Colorado was the tipping point state. So Romney would need CO. Odds are if Romney won CO he'd win Pennsylvania as well, given he lost CO by 5.36% and PA by 5.38%.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: June 20, 2019, 11:48:21 AM »
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« Reply #10 on: June 20, 2019, 12:01:45 PM »
This map relies too much on post-2016 trends. I don't think Romney would have won Iowa in 2012 if he had won the election.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2019, 12:26:30 PM »
Quote from: 🚫 Resist the Urge to Kiss a Dead Girl 🚫 on June 20, 2019, 12:01:45 PM
This map relies too much on post-2016 trends. I don't think Romney would have won Iowa in 2012 if he had won the election.

We’ll have to agree to disagree here. I think most maps in this thread rely way too much on uniform swing, which isn’t really a thing. Romney had much more (missed) room for improvement in the Midwest than in states like VA/CO, which I don’t think were winnable for any Republican in 2012. Just because VA was closer than IA doesn’t necessarily mean that it was more winnable for Republicans.
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NYSforKennedy2024
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2019, 08:50:52 PM »
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Solid4096
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« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2019, 02:08:12 PM »

Romney does not need Iowa if he wins Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2021, 02:15:23 AM »

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) ✓

The Rust Belt strategy wasn't quite there yet, but more Trumpish campaigning on Obama's failures and latino outreach could have gone a long way. In any case, Romney was probably doomed from the start.
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Chips
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« Reply #15 on: January 22, 2021, 03:51:46 AM »
OP's map+CO. 295-243 Romney.
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BigVic
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« Reply #16 on: January 22, 2021, 05:59:45 AM »
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