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  Can Greg Stumbo win the KY AG race?
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Author Topic: Can Greg Stumbo win the KY AG race?  (Read 767 times)
Politician
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« on: May 25, 2019, 07:04:08 pm »

Former Kentucky Attorney General and House Speaker Greg Stumbo is running for his old job. As Attorney General, Stumbo was wildly popular, especially in the coalfields of eastern Kentucky. As Speaker, however, he became unpopular and lost re-election in 2016. I would rate this race as Lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised If Stumbo held on.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2019, 07:07:56 pm »

Most likely not. he loses by mid single digits.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2019, 07:36:03 pm »

No. The Devil (R) would beat Jesus Christ (D) in Kentucky at this point.
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Lincoln Councilor-Elect S019
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2019, 07:37:10 pm »

Will.it be competitive yes


But he loses by 8-12
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2019, 12:21:44 pm »

Nope. Looks like KY will elect the first African American State AG.
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Ishan
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2019, 05:02:53 pm »

Yeah, even if Beshear loses by 1-2 points.
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2019, 05:07:46 pm »

Nope. Looks like KY will elect the first African American State AG.

Kentucky may elect its first African-American AG, but it's not electing the first African-American AG by a long shot; just off the top of my head (may be forgetting some), at least five states -- New York, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, and Nevada -- currently have black AGs.

The first black AG ever was elected in Massachusetts, Edward Brooke in 1962. (The first black woman AG, Pamela Carter, was elected in Indiana in 1992). Interestingly the Reconstruction period didn't feature any black AGs, though I'm not sure how common the office was then.
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2019, 05:42:38 pm »

Too bad the Black AG is a Democrat, who would go a long ways in Democratic politics, in KY, against the McConnell machine. The Black running for AG has turned his back on blue collar union black males, whom McConnell, orchestrated a block of Merrick Garland, on purpose for SCOTUS.

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morgieb
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2019, 09:09:50 pm »

It's gonna be an interesting battle between whether being a black or a Democrat is more of a disadvantage in Kentucky.
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KYWildman
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2019, 02:36:46 pm »
« Edited: May 27, 2019, 02:46:30 pm by KYWildman »


This is just straight-up insane.

Even as Bevin won last time in a pretty terrible year for Democrats, a Democrat (Beshear!) still won the AG race. Saying he will lose by 8-12 is beyond ignorant. If he does lose at all, it will be extremely close.

Same goes for the Governor’s race, by the way. For the millionth time.

Seeing all you “experts” babble on about Kentucky politics that you know nothing about never fails to be a mixture of hilarious and maddening.
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Ishan
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2019, 09:01:49 pm »


This is just straight-up insane.

Even as Bevin won last time in a pretty terrible year for Democrats, a Democrat (Beshear!) still won the AG race. Saying he will lose by 8-12 is beyond ignorant. If he does lose at all, it will be extremely close.

Same goes for the Governor’s race, by the way. For the millionth time.

Seeing all you “experts” babble on about Kentucky politics that you know nothing about never fails to be a mixture of hilarious and maddening.
Only if Beashar said that he supported "Socialism" he would lose 8 or more
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2019, 09:39:43 pm »


This is just straight-up insane.

Even as Bevin won last time in a pretty terrible year for Democrats, a Democrat (Beshear!) still won the AG race. Saying he will lose by 8-12 is beyond ignorant. If he does lose at all, it will be extremely close.

Same goes for the Governor’s race, by the way. For the millionth time.

Seeing all you “experts” babble on about Kentucky politics that you know nothing about never fails to be a mixture of hilarious and maddening.

I'll give you a serious response, and assume that you do have a good idea what going on in Kentucky (or at least, better than I do. Hopefully you do the same for people from their home states.) How many people do you personally know that voted for Trump who will be voting Democratic in the Gubernatorial race, as well as downballot races? While I get that 2015 was a good year for Republicans, what makes you say that 2019 will be that much better for Democrats, when results so far have been very mixed? Is it merely because of Bevin's unpopularity? A lot of us are skeptical about believing that a Democrat could win in a state that has been so Republican-leaning, given the results we've seen in the past few years, where Democrats struggle to win in dark red states, even under very favorable conditions. If you can give evidence that statewide races are still competitive in Kentucky, and that the 2015 results were merely due to it being a Republican-friendly environment, and are not a sign of things to come, I'm all ears.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2019, 04:04:32 pm »

Last time GOPer won the KY State AG's office was in 1943.

If Daniel Cameron (R) pulls this off, he'll be the 2nd African American to win statewide office (following Jeanette Hampton) & first African American to hold the Commonwealth's Chief Law Enforcement post.

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bronz4141
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2019, 04:29:53 pm »

Yes, I think so.

Stumbo could win 51-49.

Would white Kentuckians vote for a black Republican?

Daniel Cameron will be seen as the next black token Republican like Tim Scott, John James, Lynn Swann, etc.

This race will be the most watched next to KY-GOV

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Bagel23
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2019, 05:01:17 pm »

Come on Stumbo, it's Kentucky, appeal to their electorate, even if it gets dirty and has to pull in race, do it if it means winning. I certainly don't care what color my leader is, but it's Kentucky we are talking about lol, you got to appeal to their electorate that is full of racist rubes, just win!
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2019, 05:57:14 pm »

Probably not. Likely R

Dems would be very lucky to win the gubernatorial election but other races are probably a lost cause
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decunningham2
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« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2019, 03:16:20 pm »

Didn't Stumbo lose his house race a few years back?
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swamiG
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« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2019, 03:23:56 pm »

Probably not. Likely R

Dems would be very lucky to win the gubernatorial election but other races are probably a lost cause

I wouldn't go quite that far. The Gov seat is a pure toss-up at the moment, and Beshear may even be a slight favorite. The other statewide races range from Lean R to Likely R. If Bevin continues to sink, he can drag the rest of the KY GOP along with him
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2019, 04:22:03 pm »

Probably not. Likely R

Dems would be very lucky to win the gubernatorial election but other races are probably a lost cause

I wouldn't go quite that far. The Gov seat is a pure toss-up at the moment, and Beshear may even be a slight favorite. The other statewide races range from Lean R to Likely R. If Bevin continues to sink, he can drag the rest of the KY GOP along with him

I don’t think so. KY is now a mostly republican state, the state is far different from where it was 10 years ago (look at the state house). The best (realistic) case scenario for dems is a Kansas scenario where they win the Gov election and lose every other downballot races, the worst case scenario is a Oklahoma scenario where they lose the Gov election by a relatively slight margin and every other statewide races by double digits. As of now, I would rate the Gov election as lean R because Beshear is far too liberal (he was endorsed by NARAL) and most statewide downballot races are safe R with the AG race as Likely R
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2019, 04:23:09 pm »

Didn't Stumbo lose his house race a few years back?

Yeah, in 2016 when dems lost the House for the first time since 1920
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #20 on: June 01, 2019, 05:09:45 pm »

Stumbo has a shot, but it can be split voting patterns as far as Gov being Beshear and LT being a Dem and the R winning the AG race.
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