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October 15, 2019, 10:19:39 pm
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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  Will WV be a D pickup? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will WV be a D pickup?  (Read 1511 times)
KaiserDave
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.98, S: -3.33

« on: May 22, 2019, 07:52:38 pm »

Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.
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KaiserDave
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.98, S: -3.33

« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2019, 03:08:00 pm »

Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

WV shifted to the GOP in 2000 because its nominee, Al Gore, was the poster child of the anti-fossil fuels campaign.  It's as simple as that.  WV is socially conservative, but its social conservatism didn't interfere with it's voting Democratic for the most part.  Even in 1984, Reagan carried WV 55-45, which was only 1 point higher than he carried New York, which Reagan carried 54-46.

The UMW did not endorse a candidate in 2016; this was huge for Trump and the GOP in WV, and contributed to the exaggerated margin Trump won by.  I strongly suspect that the UMW will endorse Biden in 2020.  I also suspect that some of the conservative economics of Trump will not be helpful in WV.  I would not be surprised if the Democrats rebound somewhat in WV, though the hits they've taken will make it tough for them carry state offices they don't currently hold.

I'm totally kidding. Titanium R always.
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KaiserDave
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.98, S: -3.33

« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2019, 03:51:25 pm »

Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

WV shifted to the GOP in 2000 because its nominee, Al Gore, was the poster child of the anti-fossil fuels campaign.  It's as simple as that.  WV is socially conservative, but its social conservatism didn't interfere with it's voting Democratic for the most part.  Even in 1984, Reagan carried WV 55-45, which was only 1 point higher than he carried New York, which Reagan carried 54-46.

The UMW did not endorse a candidate in 2016; this was huge for Trump and the GOP in WV, and contributed to the exaggerated margin Trump won by.  I strongly suspect that the UMW will endorse Biden in 2020.  I also suspect that some of the conservative economics of Trump will not be helpful in WV.  I would not be surprised if the Democrats rebound somewhat in WV, though the hits they've taken will make it tough for them carry state offices they don't currently hold.

I'm totally kidding. Titanium R always.

What do you think the Trump cs Biden margin would be?

I say 66-30.
That's about right. I think Sanders would be 65-31, maybe 65-30.
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