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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, Speaker YE)
  More likely to flip? IA or CO?
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Question: ?
#1Iowa (from R to D)  
#2Colorado (from D to R)  
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Total Voters: 98

Author Topic: More likely to flip? IA or CO?  (Read 724 times)
SnowLabrador
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« Reply #25 on: May 16, 2019, 10:45:49 am »

Colorado. Cory Gardner will help Trump.
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Politician
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« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2019, 11:52:17 am »

Colorado. Cory Gardner will help Trump.
LOL What?

That would be like saying Obama could flip WV in 2012 because Manchin would help him there...and Gardner is already likely to lose anyway.
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swamiG
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« Reply #27 on: May 16, 2019, 11:59:15 am »

Y’all have got to be kidding me if this is actually up for debate. The only correct answer here is IA. A Lean R state going through a farm crisis is way more likely to flip than a Likely D state that just elected a gay governor by double digits.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #28 on: May 16, 2019, 02:27:33 pm »

Iowa is much more elastic than Colorado and Democrats didn't get wiped out there in 2018 like Republicans did in Colorado, so the answer is obvious.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #29 on: May 16, 2019, 02:38:09 pm »

Colorado. Cory Gardner will help Trump.
LOL What?

That would be like saying Obama could flip WV in 2012 because Manchin would help him there...and Gardner is already likely to lose anyway.
Did you just compare Colorado to West Virginia?
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RJ
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« Reply #30 on: May 16, 2019, 10:51:40 pm »

Well gee, IA went for trump by almost 10 pts while CO went to Clinton by almost 5, literally double the margin, I think there's room for the Democratic candidate to improve in IA with farming there taking a beating but a 10% swing? Not likely. CO isn't either but it's more likely by the numbers.

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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #31 on: May 16, 2019, 11:13:24 pm »

Staunch leftist here

Colorado, VA, and WA would flip before IA lol

The only way Washington flips Republican in 2020 is if by some miracle Kshama Sawant is the Democratic nominee. And if that were to ever happen, the Democrats would have a lot bigger problems than Washington going red
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538Electoral
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« Reply #32 on: May 17, 2019, 12:10:24 am »

That question's tricky. 2016 results would point to Colorado, 2018 results would point to Iowa.

I would go with Colorado though as I do believe the 2020 results will be more similar to 2016 than 2018.
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Liz or Leave
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #33 on: May 17, 2019, 09:12:18 am »

That question's tricky. 2016 results would point to Colorado, 2018 results would point to Iowa.

I would go with Colorado though as I do believe the 2020 results will be more similar to 2016 than 2018.

How does a D+5 victory for the candidate who did the worst job of turning out the Democratic base in decades suggest that Colorado is likely to flip? It shows that Dems have a high floor there.

Seriously how are you going to get 130K voters who turned out for an anemic Clinton campaign against an unknown quantity in Trump to flip to Trump the known quantity against a (probably) decent opponent?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #34 on: May 17, 2019, 01:05:15 pm »

Iowa. It voted majority D in the overall election of House members in 2018, suggesting that Iowa can revert to its pre-2014 pattern as a legitimate swing state.
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User155815470020
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« Reply #35 on: May 17, 2019, 02:22:21 pm »

Staunch leftist here

Colorado, VA, and WA would flip before IA lol

The only way Washington flips Republican in 2020 is if by some miracle Kshama Sawant is the Democratic nominee. And if that were to ever happen, the Democrats would have a lot bigger problems than Washington going red

VA and CO would definitely flip before Washington state, and Kshama Suwant would not cause the state to flip. WA is safe D, whether Suwant or Manchin or anyone else was the Democratic nominee.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #36 on: May 17, 2019, 03:07:05 pm »

Iowa for sure.
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