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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  KY-Cygnal (R Primary): Bevin +38
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Author Topic: KY-Cygnal (R Primary): Bevin +38  (Read 581 times)
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« on: May 14, 2019, 08:43:13 am »

Matt Bevin (inc) 56
Robert Goforth 18

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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2019, 09:30:46 am »

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2019, 02:55:38 pm »

I see the GOP Primary for KY State AG will be intriguing.
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swamiG
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2019, 03:20:04 pm »

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I think Bevin is vulnerable but I won’t be reading too much into these results next week. For one thing, there are almost certainly going to be more voters picking up a Dem ballot. If I start seeing posts overstating that like “Zomg majority Dem voters in Kentucky #BlueWave!!1” I’m going to scream
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2019, 03:24:54 pm »

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I think Bevin is vulnerable but I won’t be reading too much into these results next week. For one thing, there are almost certainly going to be more voters picking up a Dem ballot. If I start seeing posts overstating that like “Zomg majority Dem voters in Kentucky #BlueWave!!1” I’m going to scream

Narrator: there will be
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KYWildman
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2019, 03:38:22 pm »
« Edited: May 15, 2019, 03:42:26 pm by KYWildman »

Bevin is going to lose, but it has nothing to do with the primaries or the number of registered Democrats in the state. It has to do with the fact that he is widely hated in all parts of the state by all kinds of voters, and unlike last time (when both he and Beshear won statewide races), turnout will not be in his favor. The only people strongly motivated to turnout this time will be people who want him gone. Trust me folks, no partisan lean in presidential elections can overpower the sheer hatred Bevin gets from Kentuckians. It’s not like McConnell where the race can be nationalized as voting for Schumer or whatever, which is why even Papa Beshear couldn’t beat him. But Kentuckians last voted for a Democratic governor in 2011, in the midst of the Tea Party movement and in between two landslide losses for Obama in the state. And he won by a massive 20+ point landslide. More than Obama lost by. And he was Andy Beshear’s dad. These smug “Beshear is doomed because Kentucky is nothing but brainwashed hicks” takes from people who know nothing about the state are rather infuriating, frankly.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2019, 03:56:48 pm »

Bevin is going to lose, but it has nothing to do with the primaries or the number of registered Democrats in the state. It has to do with the fact that he is widely hated in all parts of the state by all kinds of voters, and unlike last time (when both he and Beshear won statewide races), turnout will not be in his favor. The only people strongly motivated to turnout this time will be people who want him gone. Trust me folks, no partisan lean in presidential elections can overpower the sheer hatred Bevin gets from Kentuckians. It’s not like McConnell where the race can be nationalized as voting for Schumer or whatever, which is why even Papa Beshear couldn’t beat him. But Kentuckians last voted for a Democratic governor in 2011, in the midst of the Tea Party movement and in between two landslide losses for Obama in the state. And he won by a massive 20+ point landslide. More than Obama lost by. And he was Andy Beshear’s dad. These smug “Beshear is doomed because Kentucky is nothing but brainwashed hicks” takes from people who know nothing about the state are rather infuriating, frankly.

POTUS Trump VP Pence & Senator McConnell will fight like Hell to ensure Bevin wins reelection.
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swamiG
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2019, 04:05:29 pm »

Bevin is going to lose, but it has nothing to do with the primaries or the number of registered Democrats in the state. It has to do with the fact that he is widely hated in all parts of the state by all kinds of voters, and unlike last time (when both he and Beshear won statewide races), turnout will not be in his favor. The only people strongly motivated to turnout this time will be people who want him gone. Trust me folks, no partisan lean in presidential elections can overpower the sheer hatred Bevin gets from Kentuckians. It’s not like McConnell where the race can be nationalized as voting for Schumer or whatever, which is why even Papa Beshear couldn’t beat him. But Kentuckians last voted for a Democratic governor in 2011, in the midst of the Tea Party movement and in between two landslide losses for Obama in the state. And he won by a massive 20+ point landslide. More than Obama lost by. And he was Andy Beshear’s dad. These smug “Beshear is doomed because Kentucky is nothing but brainwashed hicks” takes from people who know nothing about the state are rather infuriating, frankly.

Agreed. Atlas needs to understand that Bevin is not running for Senate. The least popular Governor in all the land isn't going to be a shoe-in for re-election by virtue of the R by his name in a state that remains open to electing Democrats. As for Trump, if his rallies couldn't get Fat Pat over the line in a federal race, I doubt they would help Bevin get past his unpopularity in even some of the most pro-Trump parts of eastern KY.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2019, 04:19:58 pm »

Also worth noting that a huge part of Bevin's general election base is from people who don't vote in Republican Party primaries.
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Politician
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« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2019, 06:38:46 pm »

Bevin is currently getting 51% of the vote, meaning he is doing worse in real life than he is in a poll with 26% undecided.
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