Rate NC-09

[Yang2020]

Now that the primary is over and the GOP has avoided a runoff, the matchup is Dan Bishop vs McReady, on September 10.

[Gracile]

Tossup, but closer to Lean R. It's possible that Democrats will maintain their special election advantage into 2019. However, NC-09 is still a rather conservative district in certain parts, and overcoming that will be challenging for McCready.

[Yang2020]

Tossup, but closer to Lean R. It's possible that Democrats will maintain their special election advantage into 2019. However, NC-09 is still a rather conservative district in certain parts, and overcoming that will be challenging for McCready.

Do you think there will be any blowback against the GOP for the election fraud perpetrated by Harris? I voted Tossup/Tilt R.

[Gracile]

Tossup, but closer to Lean R. It's possible that Democrats will maintain their special election advantage into 2019. However, NC-09 is still a rather conservative district in certain parts, and overcoming that will be challenging for McCready.

Do you think there will be any blowback against the GOP for the election fraud perpetrated by Harris? I voted Tossup/Tilt R.

Maybe, but the scandal will probably lose some of its potency just because it will be a long time from the trial to the election in September.

[Yang2020]

Tossup, but closer to Lean R. It's possible that Democrats will maintain their special election advantage into 2019. However, NC-09 is still a rather conservative district in certain parts, and overcoming that will be challenging for McCready.

Do you think there will be any blowback against the GOP for the election fraud perpetrated by Harris? I voted Tossup/Tilt R.

Maybe, but the scandal will probably lose some of its potency just because it will be a long time from the trial to the election in September.

I believe Bishop authored the extremely unpopular bathroom bill. That could hurt him.

[S019]

Tilt R, but I'm getting bad vibes from this race, I think the ballot collection fiasco, might have upset enough moderates to give it to McCready

[We Live in Black and White]

Tossup/Tilt D. Aside from not being a criminal (as far as we know), Bishop isn't exactly that far removed from Harris in terms of being a slobbering fire-and-brimstone social crusader. I give it a month before he starts running his mouth and blows it.

[Xing]

Toss-Up/Tilt R. This seat should be McCready's by all rights, but voters have very short attention spans, and probably don't care/remember that the previous Republican literally committed election fraud.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bishop wins by a moderate amount. Lean R

[Tender Branson]

Tossup to Lean D.

There was extremely low turnout in the R primary yesterday, a sign of deep frustration among the R base after their vote rigging scandal.

[brucejoel99]

Tilt to Lean D. D enthusiasm, R frustration, & McCready's huge $ advantage over Bishop are just a few factors. Will not surprise me at all if McCready wins.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tossup/tilt R.

Dems can win, but this might be a low turnout election. Crazy it takes to Sepetember.

[smoltchanov]

About tossup with small tilt to ... somewhere (most likely - R).. Bishop is very conservative, but district is conservative-leaning (it almost went for ultraconservative in Democratic 2018) too. Democratic enthusiasm subsided somewhat compared with specials of 2017-2018 (or - Republican increased?), at least - the turnout difference is unlikely to be as big, and turnout itself may be low. In such case it's "mad activists", who mostly vote, and among them in this district conservatives will, most likely, prevail...

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Lean R. I'd like to believe it's a tossup, but I don't have enough faith in the voters of NC-09 to stop #48 in his tracks.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R. This is a conservative district, and, what is more, Bishop's from the area that McCready needs to do very well in.

[Woody]

Lean R. Somewhere between 2-4 point victory for Bishop.

[ElectionsGuy]

Because of the special election there's a lot of uncertainty, but if pressed I would expect Bishop to win. This district is Trump +11.6. Not exactly prime territory for Democratic pickup. Toss-Up/Tilt R

[UncleSam]

Bishop seems like a cretin but Trump+11.6 is a tough district for Ds. Harris barely edged out McCready here (probably) and he was a nutter worse than Bishop. I think Bishop wins by a couple in the end, though if Dems can gather a huge political force of energy then they could definitely pull it out. Depends if the midterm kick persists or not though.

[Frenchrepublican]

Because of the special election there's a lot of uncertainty, but if pressed I would expect Bishop to win. This district is Trump +11.6. Not exactly prime territory for Democratic pickup. Toss-Up/Tilt R

This

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

It was an even seat in November, Bishop is a nut, and the GOP is too lazy to turn out for special elections. Lean D.

[Suburbia]

It was an even seat in November, Bishop is a nut, and the GOP is too lazy to turn out for special elections. Lean D.

Are you sure about that? Five years ago, it was that Democrats were too lazy to turn out, especially in the Jolly vs. Sink special.

I say tossup.

[brucejoel99]

It was an even seat in November, Bishop is a nut, and the GOP is too lazy to turn out for special elections. Lean D.

Are you sure about that? Five years ago, it was that Democrats were too lazy to turn out, especially in the Jolly vs. Sink special.

I say tossup.

Five years ago, there was a Democratic president & Democrats weren't motivated to turn out. Big difference now.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Tilt R

[wesmoorenerd]

Pure Tossup at this juncture.