Biden leads in AZ

[Frenchrepublican]

According to this Fabrizio poll Arizona is not looking good as Biden has opened a lead over Trump ; one more proof that AZ will be a real battleground state in 2020

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Although there is no doubt AZ is a true swing state next year, I'll wait until at least late summer 2020 to get a good gauge on state by state polls.

[Sir Mohamed]

What poll is this? No numbers? With Biden and most other Dems, AZ is definitely a pure tossup.

[Frenchrepublican]

What poll is this? No numbers? With Biden and most other Dems, AZ is definitely a pure tossup.

It’s from the NYT, they didn’t give any precision, the poll was commissioned by the Trump campaign and done by pollster Fabrizio, apparently Biden is leading in AZ and there are some fears that AZ could flip to D

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Biden is definitely a much better fit as a candidate for AZ than Trump. We'll just have to see if partisan leanings (I still think AZ is Tilt R though I know many disagree) outweigh individual candidates or vice versa.

[Alben Barkley]

Not looking good? That looks very good to me.

[Yank2133]

AZ, PA, and MI win those three and that is the ball game.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

It's amazing to think it was recently as 2004 that all of the interior western states voted GOP.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

If Republican internals show Biden handily beating Trump in battleground states, then perhaps he really is the "most electable" candidate. that doesn't mean I'm going to support him, and it's still early of course.

[Frenchrepublican]

Not looking good? That looks very good to me.

I’m not a D

[Person Man]

Not looking good? That looks very good to me.

I’m not a D

derp.

[Frenchrepublican]

Not looking good? That looks very good to me.

I’m not a D

derp.

What ?

[Matty]

Internal polls are designed to spur worry/anxiety which increases incentive to donate/vote.

Both dems and reps do this.

[pbrower2a]

This is one of the polls that did not make the list of those that either ABC News or NBC News exposed. Partial data, and so far polls for AZ, CO, NV, NH, and NM have not been made public. 

[TDAS04]

I could easily see Biden carrying Arizona by 2-3%.

[NOVA Green]

Well AZ was only 48-45 in the DJT vs HRC election, which the rest of the votes going to 3rd Party Candidates....

Not unreasonable to see Trump underwater in AZ in early polling against a well known "Generic Democrat"....

AZ is no longer your "Granparent's Goldwater for Republican State" but is experiencing massive social-demographic changes more akin to what transformed AZ from a solidly DEM state in the '50s to one of the most solidly PUB states until recent Years.

If anyone is surprised to see a poll where a major DEM candidate leading Trump in AZ, they obviously have no clue about about AZ in 2020....

Now could be like any poll in a relatively low turnout state where RVs  tend to be swamped by LVs come election day, but still Ostriches can bury their heads in the sand any day oblivious to what is occurring right between their eyes in real time.....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump loses AZ it's over.

[sg0508]

AZ's competitiveness next year will largely depend on who the Democrats select, but also on the long-term perception of Trump's border security policies. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can see the Democrat winning it if they’re Biden, Harris, or Castro. The Phoenix suburbs in Maricopa are crucial, and that’s why I don’t see Bernie winning there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lets hope its Harris and Castro, not Biden

[pbrower2a]

AZ's competitiveness next year will largely depend on who the Democrats select, but also on the long-term perception of Trump's border security policies. 

Do bad things against Hispanics who haven't committed violent crimes (Mexican-Americans seem not to protect their rogues), and as a politician you will get the antipathy of Mexican-Americans across the economic spectrum.

Note that Arizona has a significant majority usually very conservative in its voting -- Mormons. Trump did unusually badly among Mormons who exude family values more like those of Barack and Michelle Obama than those of SEX FIEND Donald Trump. Trump got a smaller share of the popular vote in Utah in 2016 than did Barry Goldwater in 1964 in Utah, which may reflect that Mormons have more concern with sexual impropriety than with the threat of thermonuclear war.

I expect Mormons to be quite conservative in voting in Arizona as in Utah -- but I can easily imagine them voting for a right-wing alternative to Donald Trump, whose activities as a SEX FIEND will offend Mormon sensibilities. It would not take much erosion of Mormon support for Trump to hand Arizona to the Democratic nominee. Sure, Mormons could vote against Obama, whose family values are almost stereotypically LDS... when the opponent is Mitt Romney. But Donald Trump against a Barack Obama? 

I write this before I see any impact of the indictment of Jeffrey Epstein, whose private jet was effectively a "Lolita Express". No mention is made of Donald Trump as a participant in flights or at the parties at which Jeffrey Epstein allegedly used underage girls for his sexual indulgence.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isnt a good fit to attrack Y2K voters, anymore, due to his segregationist comments that happened in the past. Poll was taken well before the comment was made. Dems need Harris as nominee.

[President Johnson]

Biden isnt a good fit to attrack Y2K voters, anymore, due to his segregationist comments that happened in the past. Poll was taken well before the comment was made. Dems need Harris as nominee.

Because Harris is running eight points ahead of Biden in the brand new ABC poll against Trump. Oh no, wait, it's Uncle Joe...

Joe Biden is a very good fit for Arizona and if he wins the general election (likely at this point), I expect him to win the state by two points or so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is losing ground to Warren in IA in a state less conservative than AZ, he has to win a primary before he wins the general. Warren is in the lead, now

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Internal polls are designed to spur worry/anxiety which increases incentive to donate/vote.

Both dems and reps do this.

Motion to ban all internal polls from the Atlas forum?