SC-SEN 2020: Jaime Harrison vs. Lindsey Graham: Who wins?

[Suburbia]

I think that Lindsey Graham could be defeated in 2020. South Carolina is a state that has a large black population; Sen. Graham is now a Trump ally to get conservative South Carolina votes.

Can Jaime Harrison, a black Democrat be the second black senator elected (Tim Scott, R)?

Would white South Carolina voters vote for a black Democrat?

[SnowLabrador]

Graham isn't losing. The state is too red, and SC Democrats will need to spend all their resources defending Cunningham anyway.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. Serious question ?

AL has a larger african american population, so by your definition Doug Jones will win reelection ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Graham wins 57/42

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GRAHAM

[President Johnson]

Safe Republican. Nothing to see here.

[We Live in Black and White]

No way Graham loses barring a pedophilia scandal, but I think it'll be closer than his usual affairs.

[Pollster]

Graham could certainly win by a similar margin to McMaster in 2018, but South Carolina lacks the urban white liberal population that other southern states like VA, NC, GA, and TX have that make them competitive when minority turnout is similarly high.

Of course, that could change if Harrison is able to create a turnout machine that registers new voters and/or turns out low-propensity voters in massive numbers in a manner similar to Beto, but from what I have heard from colleagues is that his stint as SC Dem Party chairman inspires little confidence in his ability to accomplish this (Bakari Sellers was frequently named as somebody who would be more capable).

[UWS]

Not serious at all for question. Graham wins by double digits. You know why? Because it's South Carolina.

[Kevin]

Not serious at all for question. Graham wins by double digits. You know why? Because it's South Carolina.

Democrats investing her is just as ludicrous as the GOP throwing its weight into Rhode Island or Hawaii.

[We Live in Black and White]

Not serious at all for question. Graham wins by double digits. You know why? Because it's South Carolina.

Democrats investing her is just as ludicrous as the GOP throwing its weight into Rhode Island or Hawaii.

Evidently neither of you are familiar with the concept of trends.

[Politician]

Not serious at all for question. Graham wins by double digits. You know why? Because it's South Carolina.

Democrats investing her is just as ludicrous as the GOP throwing its weight into Rhode Island or Hawaii.

Evidently neither of you are familiar with the concept of trends.

Rhode Island: Trended 10.18% R in 2016
Hawaii: Trended 8.76% R in 2016

South Carolina: Trended 2.03% R in 2016

I do agree SC is much more competitive than RI or HI, but that's because it's a less partisan state, and Graham is a weak and unpopular senator.

[Yang2020]

Thanks to that one brave soul who decided to break the 39-Graham streak.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The only reason for a Democratic donor to waste money on Harrison is that they maxed out on what they could give to Cunningham and hope that holding Graham to single digits will help Cunningham.

[Xing]

Graham, though he’s still more likely to lose than Ernst or McSally tbh

[Sestak]

Give it...actually not even sure 6 years is enough. Maybe 2028.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Graham