Internal D Poll Hood+5
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  Internal D Poll Hood+5
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Author Topic: Internal D Poll Hood+5  (Read 2637 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: May 15, 2019, 01:13:17 PM »

Hood leads Reeves 45/40. No demographics details available which let me thing that the vast majority of undecided voters are white voters who will vote Reeves in the end.

Not sure if being only +5 in your own internal poll is really a good new for him anyway (especially considering his big cash deficit and the tons of negative ads he will have to face)

I remain where I’m : likely R

Reeves defeats Hood 56/44 in the end
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2019, 01:14:00 PM »

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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2019, 01:17:04 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2019, 01:18:35 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%
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Suburbia
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2019, 01:21:06 PM »

Hood wins 51-46

MS also elects a black Attorney General this year as well

Mississippi is slowly changing......
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2019, 01:21:19 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

The Dem ceiling (under absolutely perfect conditions for the Democratic candidate) is more like 55%, and the floor is likewise more like 36-37%, accounting for extreme circumstances.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2019, 01:21:59 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2019, 01:27:53 PM »

If Hood doesn't get 50% or more, in Nov, despite a majority win, the GOP state assembly decides in favor of Reeves, like the late 1990's Ronny Muskgrave case.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2019, 01:36:46 PM »

Safe R.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2019, 01:45:30 PM »

And what if Hood actually wins? What is the Republican strategy then?

It's not easy for him to win, but I want to know what Republicans will do if he wins.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2019, 01:48:48 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2019, 01:50:08 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

The Dem ceiling (under absolutely perfect conditions for the Democratic candidate) is more like 55%, and the floor is likewise more like 36-37%, accounting for extreme circumstances.

Reeves =/= Roy Moore
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2019, 02:48:21 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2019, 02:55:02 PM »

Both Hood & Reeves have held statewide office for 16 years respectively & are more experienced.

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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2019, 03:42:19 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year
This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2019, 03:44:32 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year
This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote
His 2015 opponent was very well funded.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2019, 03:51:56 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2019, 03:57:23 PM by swamiG »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year
This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote
His 2015 opponent was very well funded.

Yes, running as a statewide Dem in MS in 2015 was a nightmare. The Dem nominee for Gov was a freaking truck driver who couldn't even get 1/3rd of the vote. Yet Hood still scored a double digit win. As such, I think Hood is on track to perform much better than a generic Dem in MS would.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #17 on: May 15, 2019, 04:26:52 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year
This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote
His 2015 opponent was very well funded.

Yes, running as a statewide Dem in MS in 2015 was a nightmare. The Dem nominee for Gov was a freaking truck driver who couldn't even get 1/3rd of the vote. Yet Hood still scored a double digit win. As such, I think Hood is on track to perform much better than a generic Dem in MS would.

You have to keep in mind that in 2015 he was an incumbent in a generally non partisan race, this year it will be a high profile race and he won’t have the incumbency advantage and the benefit of running against someone who is unknown, considering the financial gap we are talking about a six to one financial advantage for Reeves, Hood will get carpetbombed
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #18 on: May 15, 2019, 04:38:51 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year
This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote
His 2015 opponent was very well funded.

Yes, running as a statewide Dem in MS in 2015 was a nightmare. The Dem nominee for Gov was a freaking truck driver who couldn't even get 1/3rd of the vote. Yet Hood still scored a double digit win. As such, I think Hood is on track to perform much better than a generic Dem in MS would.

You have to keep in mind that in 2015 he was an incumbent in a generally non partisan race, this year it will be a high profile race and he won’t have the incumbency advantage and the benefit of running against someone who is unknown, considering the financial gap we are talking about a six to one financial advantage for Reeves, Hood will get carpetbombed
Hopkins was very well funded and run numerous ads against Hood throughout the campaign.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2019, 04:51:51 PM »

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year
This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote
His 2015 opponent was very well funded.

Yes, running as a statewide Dem in MS in 2015 was a nightmare. The Dem nominee for Gov was a freaking truck driver who couldn't even get 1/3rd of the vote. Yet Hood still scored a double digit win. As such, I think Hood is on track to perform much better than a generic Dem in MS would.

You have to keep in mind that in 2015 he was an incumbent in a generally non partisan race, this year it will be a high profile race and he won’t have the incumbency advantage and the benefit of running against someone who is unknown, considering the financial gap we are talking about a six to one financial advantage for Reeves, Hood will get carpetbombed
Hopkins was very well funded and run numerous ads against Hood throughout the campaign.

Hopkins ? If I’m remember well the republican candidate had for name Hurst.

Well, we will see, we will have to agree to disagree, but for me Reeves will likely win, Hood won’t have the benefit of the incumbency, a GOV race is more polarised than a AG race, no doubt that Hood is a stronger D candidate than the one of 2015 but in the end he is a D and a D will have hard time winning in MS
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2019, 05:10:01 PM »

Don't get me wrong it's still a Lean R race and probably the most difficult governorship to flip this year, but don't be too surprised if Hood ends up winning in November. Absent a blackface scandal or something, he should keep the race within single digits and likely does even better than Epsy.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2019, 06:23:37 PM »

What is this nonsense about how row offices are less polarizing than gubernatorial voting patterns? If anything, they are more polarizing since they are forgettable offices that people usually just check the ballot with their own partisan leaning on. Notice how there’s minority party Governors in MD, MA, KS, VT, MT, and LA but no row offices held by the minority party in those states. People like Jim Hood, Kim Wyman,  Nicole Galloway are the exception to the rule.

And Nikki Fried ? The only democrat to win a statewide race in 2018. And Shapiro in PA who was elected despite Clinton and McGuinty losing the state ?
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2019, 11:28:21 PM »

Maybe not the best poll for Hood, but saying that this proves that this is a 56/44 Likely R race is silly. Hood certainly has a path in November, even if it won’t be easy. Tossup.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2019, 12:00:05 AM »

Hood has a shot, but I'd call him the underdog. Will probably be a close race.
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Xing
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2019, 01:21:41 AM »

Not great for an internal. Probably suggests a close race right now, but can Hood avoid dropping off before Election Day? I'll stick with Lean R for now.
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