Internal D Poll Hood+5

[LoneStarDem]

Can somebody explain in full detail as to why is Hood struggling despite being in statewide office for 16 years where Mississippians have known him for years ?

[smoltchanov]

Can somebody explain in full detail as to why is Hood struggling despite being in statewide office for 16 years where Mississippians have known him for years ?

I fear, that explanation is very simple - "D" letter after name....

[Sestak]

45 in own internals is not great.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Hood can't poll above 50% in any polls by November he's done for.

[LoneStarDem]

In other words: Hood is the political version of the Portland Trailblazers.

[TDAS04]

They liked Hood as AG, but a Democratic Governor might be too much these days.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

They liked Hood as AG, but a Democratic Governor might be too much these days.

I'm skeptical a Democratic Governor is too far. Senator, yes. But we've had Democrats win gubernatorial races in redder states like KS, KY, MT, LA, WV, and AR within the last ten years. It'll probably take voters turning sour on Reeves though as well as Hood maintaining good favorables though.

Also look at the Senate Special election runoff from last year, if a liberal black man could come within 6 points of a Republican in a Senate race, I see no reason a moderate white dude with vast experience winning statewide elections in the state couldn't eke out a victory in an off-year gubernatorial race.

[smoltchanov]

They liked Hood as AG, but a Democratic Governor might be too much these days.

I'm skeptical a Democratic Governor is too far. Senator, yes. But we've had Democrats win gubernatorial races in redder states like KS, KY, MT, LA, WV, and AR within the last ten years. It'll probably take voters turning sour on Reeves though as well as Hood maintaining good favorables though.

Also look at the Senate Special election runoff from last year, if a liberal black man could come within 6 points of a Republican in a Senate race, I see no reason a moderate white dude with vast experience winning statewide elections in the state couldn't eke out a victory in an off-year gubernatorial race.

Theoretically - yes. But there was very good Black turnout for Espy, and Hood has a number of Black opponents in primary. Whether Blacks will turn out for him at least as much as they did for Espy in general? - not sure. Whites, of course, will turn out more, then in Espy case, but final result is not obvious.

[Frenchrepublican]

They liked Hood as AG, but a Democratic Governor might be too much these days.

I'm skeptical a Democratic Governor is too far. Senator, yes. But we've had Democrats win gubernatorial races in redder states like KS, KY, MT, LA, WV, and AR within the last ten years. It'll probably take voters turning sour on Reeves though as well as Hood maintaining good favorables though.

Also look at the Senate Special election runoff from last year, if a liberal black man could come within 6 points of a Republican in a Senate race, I see no reason a moderate white dude with vast experience winning statewide elections in the state couldn't eke out a victory in an off-year gubernatorial race.

Any Dem who run a serious campaign is assured to win 45% of the vote in MS, Espy ran a serious campaign and thus he was able to come relatively close but it’s not exceptional

[smoltchanov]

They liked Hood as AG, but a Democratic Governor might be too much these days.

I'm skeptical a Democratic Governor is too far. Senator, yes. But we've had Democrats win gubernatorial races in redder states like KS, KY, MT, LA, WV, and AR within the last ten years. It'll probably take voters turning sour on Reeves though as well as Hood maintaining good favorables though.

Also look at the Senate Special election runoff from last year, if a liberal black man could come within 6 points of a Republican in a Senate race, I see no reason a moderate white dude with vast experience winning statewide elections in the state couldn't eke out a victory in an off-year gubernatorial race.

Any Dem who run a serious campaign is assured to win 45% of the vote in MS, Espy ran a serious campaign and thus he was able to come relatively close but it’s not exceptional

Generally agree. Hood is guaranteed 45% too. The problem is next 5%. Mississippi is very inflexible...

[OneJ]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

I mean under normal circumstances yes the floor and ceiling might look like that, but this is Hood we’re talking about who’s also running for a statewide race and not a normal, inoffensive Democrat running for a federal office like the Senate.

[Badger]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year

This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote

His 2015 opponent was very well funded.

Yes, running as a statewide Dem in MS in 2015 was a nightmare. The Dem nominee for Gov was a freaking truck driver who couldn't even get 1/3rd of the vote. Yet Hood still scored a double digit win. As such, I think Hood is on track to perform much better than a generic Dem in MS would.

You have to keep in mind that in 2015 he was an incumbent in a generally non partisan race, this year it will be a high profile race and he won’t have the incumbency advantage and the benefit of running against someone who is unknown, considering the financial gap we are talking about a six to one financial advantage for Reeves, Hood will get carpetbombed

The Attorney General's office is a generally non-partisan race?!? What are you smoking??

[smoltchanov]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

I mean under normal circumstances yes the floor and ceiling might look like that, but this is Hood we’re talking about who’s also running for a statewide race and not a normal, inoffensive Democrat running for a federal office like the Senate.

As was said in this and many other threads, results will be determined mostly by 2 factors:

1. Will Blacks coalesce for Hood and turn for him after primary?

2. How much of his past support among "Ancestral Democrats, conservative on many issues and sensitive to Trump-style rhetoric" he will preserve?