Internal D Poll Hood+5

[One Term Floridian]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

[One Term Floridian]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

[One Term Floridian]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year

[One Term Floridian]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year

This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote

His 2015 opponent was very well funded.

Yes, running as a statewide Dem in MS in 2015 was a nightmare. The Dem nominee for Gov was a freaking truck driver who couldn't even get 1/3rd of the vote. Yet Hood still scored a double digit win. As such, I think Hood is on track to perform much better than a generic Dem in MS would.

[One Term Floridian]

Don't get me wrong it's still a Lean R race and probably the most difficult governorship to flip this year, but don't be too surprised if Hood ends up winning in November. Absent a blackface scandal or something, he should keep the race within single digits and likely does even better than Epsy.