Internal D Poll Hood+5

[smoltchanov]

Can somebody explain in full detail as to why is Hood struggling despite being in statewide office for 16 years where Mississippians have known him for years ?

I fear, that explanation is very simple - "D" letter after name....

[smoltchanov]

They liked Hood as AG, but a Democratic Governor might be too much these days.

I'm skeptical a Democratic Governor is too far. Senator, yes. But we've had Democrats win gubernatorial races in redder states like KS, KY, MT, LA, WV, and AR within the last ten years. It'll probably take voters turning sour on Reeves though as well as Hood maintaining good favorables though.

Also look at the Senate Special election runoff from last year, if a liberal black man could come within 6 points of a Republican in a Senate race, I see no reason a moderate white dude with vast experience winning statewide elections in the state couldn't eke out a victory in an off-year gubernatorial race.

Theoretically - yes. But there was very good Black turnout for Espy, and Hood has a number of Black opponents in primary. Whether Blacks will turn out for him at least as much as they did for Espy in general? - not sure. Whites, of course, will turn out more, then in Espy case, but final result is not obvious.

[smoltchanov]

They liked Hood as AG, but a Democratic Governor might be too much these days.

I'm skeptical a Democratic Governor is too far. Senator, yes. But we've had Democrats win gubernatorial races in redder states like KS, KY, MT, LA, WV, and AR within the last ten years. It'll probably take voters turning sour on Reeves though as well as Hood maintaining good favorables though.

Also look at the Senate Special election runoff from last year, if a liberal black man could come within 6 points of a Republican in a Senate race, I see no reason a moderate white dude with vast experience winning statewide elections in the state couldn't eke out a victory in an off-year gubernatorial race.

Any Dem who run a serious campaign is assured to win 45% of the vote in MS, Espy ran a serious campaign and thus he was able to come relatively close but it’s not exceptional

Generally agree. Hood is guaranteed 45% too. The problem is next 5%. Mississippi is very inflexible...

[smoltchanov]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

I mean under normal circumstances yes the floor and ceiling might look like that, but this is Hood we’re talking about who’s also running for a statewide race and not a normal, inoffensive Democrat running for a federal office like the Senate.

As was said in this and many other threads, results will be determined mostly by 2 factors:

1. Will Blacks coalesce for Hood and turn for him after primary?

2. How much of his past support among "Ancestral Democrats, conservative on many issues and sensitive to Trump-style rhetoric" he will preserve?