GOP NH - Trump 72/Weld 12% (Montouth)

[Yang2020]

Last poll had Trump at 78% and Weld at 7%. Not a good sign for everyone's favorite fascist.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NH_051319/

[Alben Barkley]

Trump losing 6 points to Weld in New Hampshire isn't exactly a terrible sign for him. Even if Weld cuts it much closer in New Hampshire, hell even if he wins New Hampshire, it's hard to see how he's going to get anywhere beyond that.

Now, if he could manage to gain a decent amount of ground nationally somehow, and ends up with say 10-15% of the overall vote against Trump (about how many Republicans disapprove of him), that could be a bad sign for Trump as every recent one-termer (Ford, Carter, Bush Sr.) faced a significant primary challenger. It won't prove he's going to lose any more than his not facing such a challenger will prove he's going to win, but it's not a great sign.

Still, I don't really see it happening, and I especially don't really see Weld as the guy to do it.

[TML]

The 1992 primary result in NH was Bush 53 - Buchanan 38. Trump is still way ahead of this benchmark.

[Matty]

This op seems like an overreaction

Trump is not going to get less than 65% in any state, except maybe Utah

[Sir Mohamed]

Weld isn't going anywhere. End of story.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's sad that this a really good poll for Weld.

[Matty]

It's sad that this a really good poll for Weld.

Is 12% even that good?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump hates #NEVERTRUMPERS more than Biden or Bernie.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's sad that this a really good poll for Weld.

Is 12% even that good?

For Weld it is.

[Xing]

Trump will win ~90% of Republicans in the GE, including the vast majority of Republicans who claim to find some of his statements "troubling" or "concerning." The end.

[Mr. Morden]

Weld gets more support from youngs than olds and more support from those with a college degree (18%) than those without (8%).  But biggest divide is on ideology.  He’s at 22% among “moderates”, but just 2% among “very conservative.

fav/unfav % among GOP primary voters:
Trump 86/13% for +73%
Kasich 34/44% for -10%
Hogan 4/19% for -15%
Weld 24/48% for -24%

Trump will win ~90% of Republicans in the GE, including the vast majority of Republicans who claim to find some of his statements "troubling" or "concerning." The end.

Well sure, but how much of that is because of the fact that those who won't vote for Trump end up not calling themselves Republicans anymore?  I mean, the universe of voters who today call themselves Republicans is largely the same people who did so in 2012 when Romney was the nominee.  But it's not exactly the same cohort.  Some have flipped away from the GOP since then and others have flipped towards it.