Rate VA-07

[Yang2020]

Spanberger won by 1.9% in this district, which Trump carried by 6.5% in 2016.

[S019]

Tilt/Lean R, closer to Lean

[One Term Floridian]

I live in this district. Spanberger is well-liked and is a common presence here. I think she runs well ahead of the Democratic presidential nominee in this rapidly diversifying part of VA. Lean D

[Xing]

Toss-Up/Tilt D. I expect this to be the most competitive race in Virginia.

[TML]

I remember how charismatic the incumbent representative sounded on the campaign trail and in the debate. Although I don't agree with her on some policies, I do think her charisma will probably allow her to hang on, especially if 2020 is a year which favors Democrats nationally.

[One Term Floridian]

I remember how charismatic the incumbent representative sounded on the campaign trail and in the debate. Although I don't agree with her on some policies, I do think her charisma will probably allow her to hang on, especially if 2020 is a year which favors Democrats nationally.

She should hold on and honestly I think VA-2 with Luria will be closer

[Nyvin]

VA-7 is trending D rapidly.   I think Gillespie just barely won it in 2017.   I'd say Lean D, and if the Republicans don't win it in 2020...it's going to be redrawn in a way that'll make it almost impossible to win in the future.

[We Live in Black and White]

Going with Tilt D. I think Spanberger has the biggest hurdle to overcome out of all of our freshmen in Virginia, but the district trend is going to work massively in her favor.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strong Lean R, quality candidate like Freitas should be able to knock her down by 4-5 points.

[One Term Floridian]

Strong Lean R, quality candidate like Freitas should be able to knock her down by 4-5 points.

Fritos is probably the VA GOP’s best shot here. I’d still give Spanberger the edge though

[henster]

I remember how charismatic the incumbent representative sounded on the campaign trail and in the debate. Although I don't agree with her on some policies, I do think her charisma will probably allow her to hang on, especially if 2020 is a year which favors Democrats nationally.

She should hold on and honestly I think VA-2 with Luria will be closer

I don't know why people think VA-2 would be more competitive, the district has way less rural areas than VA-7, it's just VA Beach, parts of Norfolk and some of the Eastern Shore. While in VA-7 outside of Henrico/Chesterfield you have deep red counties where you have to delicately manage margins. And Virginia Beach has been way more friendly to Dems than Chesterfield ever was.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Tilt D

[Frenchrepublican]

As of now probably Tilt D, tossup if the GOP mounts a strong challenge to Spanberger, but the district is clearly trending D and it is likely that in 2021 Dems will add Charlottesville to it in order to make it Safe D

[Tartarus Sauce]

As of now probably Tilt D, tossup if the GOP mounts a strong challenge to Spanberger, but the district is clearly trending D and it is likely that in 2021 Dems will add Charlottesville to it in order to make it Safe D

Pretty much exactly my thoughts. If Spanberger survives 2020, she's got this seat on lockdown thanks to the D trend in the Richmond suburbs and the likely addition of Charlottesville. I wouldn't be surprised if she ended up dropping some of the more conservative parts of her platform in the 2020s like her stated opposition to sanctuary cities.

[One Term Floridian]

I remember how charismatic the incumbent representative sounded on the campaign trail and in the debate. Although I don't agree with her on some policies, I do think her charisma will probably allow her to hang on, especially if 2020 is a year which favors Democrats nationally.

She should hold on and honestly I think VA-2 with Luria will be closer

I don't know why people think VA-2 would be more competitive, the district has way less rural areas than VA-7, it's just VA Beach, parts of Norfolk and some of the Eastern Shore. While in VA-7 outside of Henrico/Chesterfield you have deep red counties where you have to delicately manage margins. And Virginia Beach has been way more friendly to Dems than Chesterfield ever was.

VA-07 is sharply trending D and the Richmond suburbs are trending D much more rapidly than anything out of the Hampton Roads region.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Toss Up. Spanberger has the advantage of D trend but Republicans have been targeting her ever since she took office. Hard. I'm expecting this to be one of incumbent D seats that Republicans will contend most aggressively.

[Gracile]

Tossup, maybe Tilt D. Spanberger will crush it in Henrico and Chesterfield (which may further trend D), but she needs to keep her losing margins in the rural parts of the district respectable.

[Suburbia]

Lean R.

[Kevin]

Pure Tossup. Along with other vulnerable D's like Max Rose, Elaine Luria, etc. she has been carving a centrist path.

The big problem for Spanberger is that while the 7th is trending D, it's still an R District (voted for both Trump in 16 and the GOP ticket in 17). Also, keep in mind that one of the partial reasons she was was that Dave was politically tone-deaf and failed to grasp the seriousness of his 18 challenge. I would wager to say that the current top two potential GOP contenders for 2020 in VA-07 are not like Dave Brat.

Keep in mind that Spanberger only won by 2 points.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tilt D

[Sestak]

Toss.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Trump is stupid and campaigns in Virginia too much, Tossup. But if he completely ignores it, Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will win VA, handsomely, and the GOP is underestimating Biden's strength in VA. Tilt Democratic.

[IceSpear]

Toss up/Tilt D

Trump and the GOP will almost certainly triage the state which should help Luria and Spanberger at the margins.