Rate MN-01

[Yang2020]

Jim Hagedorn picked up this district in 2018 by a slim 0.4%. Trump won this district in 2016 by 14.9%.

[We Live in Black and White]

Lean R as of now, but it's a much more sensible target than MN-08 at this juncture thanks to Rochester. I doubt, logically, that it flips with Trump upticket, but you never know. Feehan could give it another go and Hagedorn is far from an inspiring incumbent.

[One Term Floridian]

Lean R but probably the Dems’ likeliest pick up opportunity in the state

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely R

Incumbency advantage + better climate

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Lean R

[Politician]

Lean R as of now, but it's a much more sensible target than MN-08 at this juncture thanks to Rochester. I doubt, logically, that it flips with Trump upticket, but you never know. Feehan could give it another go and Hagedorn is far from an inspiring incumbent.

This, except I have it as Likely R (too Trumpy). Closer to lean than safe, though.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Likely R. Collins is more likely to survive in MN-7 in 2020 than either MN-1 or MN-8 flipping back to the Democrats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Safe R

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tilt R

[JGibson]

Lean R.

[OneJ]

Lean R. Closer to Likely than Tilt R.

[Xing]

Likely R. The closeness of the 2018 race is the one thing keeping me from rating it as Safe.

[wesmoorenerd]

Lean R. Pretty clearly a better target than the Eighth. The district is seeing urban growth, Hagedorn is a terrible incumbent, and we still ran very close here in 2018.

[Pericles]

Likely R, closer to Lean than Safe though.

[morgieb]

Likely R. If only because Hadgdorn doesn't strike me as a great incumbent. Don't get why this one is seen as in play when everyone else (correctly) agrees that MN-08 is not realistically in play, to me they're both the same (under current coalitions basically Safe R seats)

[Yellowhammer]

Safe R. If we were talking about a district Clinton won by 14.9%, there's no way anyone would be claiming it to be competitive.

[Xing]

Safe R. If we were talking about a district Clinton won by 14.9%, there's no way anyone would be claiming it to be competitive.

Do you consider FL-26 to be Safe D?

[Yellowhammer]

Safe R. If we were talking about a district Clinton won by 14.9%, there's no way anyone would be claiming it to be competitive.

Do you consider FL-26 to be Safe D?

In 2020? Yes. It could be lean or likely D  in 2022 if a democrat wins though.

[HarrisonL]

MN-1 and 8 are both likely gop in 2020 with Trump on the ballot. I have a bold prediction that Colin Peterson will lose narrowly too in MN-7.

[TWTown]

Tilt D and I'm not being a hack when I say this.
Rochester and Mankato are growing fast as are some smaller towns like Faribault
I am not going to be surprised if Hagedorn wins but this is the MNDFL's race to lose.

[Xing]

Safe R. If we were talking about a district Clinton won by 14.9%, there's no way anyone would be claiming it to be competitive.

Do you consider FL-26 to be Safe D?

In 2020? Yes. It could be lean or likely D  in 2022 if a democrat wins though.

Okay, fair enough. Some people are rating it Lean/Likely D, though.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Safe R. As my man Yellowhammer pointed out, I bet that many of the same people calling this Likely R would say 'Safe D' if the parties were flipped in a Clinton+15% district.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Safe R. We're not in 2012.

[IceSpear]

Dems couldn't hold this quickly R-trending open seat in a D+9 Democratic wave with a strong well-funded candidate while their slate of Senate/gubernatorial nominees were simultaneously carrying the state by double digits. Why exactly would they win it in 2020 unless Solid's predictions end up being accurate?

Safe R