Civiqs: Biden +4, Warren +3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Civiqs, May 12-14, 1650 RV

Biden 48, Trump 44
Warren 48, Trump 45

These were the only two matchups polled.

Although Civiqs is associated with Daily Kos, they have consistently been one of Trump's better pollsters.

[Frenchrepublican]

More realistic than the PA quinnipiac poll

[Comrade Funk]

More realistic than the PA quinnipiac poll

Holy crap will you stop unskewing every poll that is unfavorable to your god king? Quinnipiac isn't some trash internal.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden winning by 4 nationally and Warren by 3 seems realistic, even though I don't buy this poll since various others have shown Biden in better shape. I don't buy the PA +11 poll either, that seems an outlier. A 3% national PV win is the very, very least for any Dem to win the EC. Better let it be around 5% or more.

[Frenchrepublican]

More realistic than the PA quinnipiac poll

Holy crap will you stop unskewing every poll that is unfavorable to your god king? Quinnipiac isn't some trash internal.

Lol. Trump is not my king. Now if you want to believe that Biden will carry PA by 11 it is your own problem.
Even if Quinnipiac is not doing internal polls their polls tend to have a clear pro dem bias (Nelson and Gillum winning by healthy margins)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is probably leading by more than this.

[Gass3268]

Civiqs, May 12-14, 1650 RV

Biden 48, Trump 44
Warren 48, Trump 45

These were the only two matchups polled.

Although Civiqs is associated with Daily Kos, they have consistently been one of Trump's better pollsters.

One of Trumps better pollsters, however the results are very consistent and almost very fluctuate.

[tagimaucia]

Civiqs, May 12-14, 1650 RV

Biden 48, Trump 44
Warren 48, Trump 45

These were the only two matchups polled.

Although Civiqs is associated with Daily Kos, they have consistently been one of Trump's better pollsters.

One of Trumps better pollsters, however the results are very consistent and almost very fluctuate.

Maybe one of Trump's better pollsters at the federal level, but their state-by-state results are kind of bad for Trump actually. They have him at -11 net approval in Michigan, -9 in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and -5 in Georgia and Wisconsin, and those numbers don't move around all *that* much.

I've seen some people wary of Civiqs' results because they show so little movement in their polls compared to say, even the 538 average (which itself is fairly stable), but my gut feeling is that they seem to be on to something-- their method of polling seems less subject to non-response biases which fluctuate up and down and tend to make polls bounce around more. The few individual races they've polled they pretty much nailed-- they got NJ Senate and VA Gov in 2019 right within a point or so, and showed an incredibly stable trend-line in doing so... i.e. they basically correctly predicted the margins for months in advance.  I believe they also consistently had Cruz +1 to +2 over Beto, which turned out to be right, and leading up to that election people were largely scoffing at polls that had it that close.

[henster]

For some reason the aggregates don't seem to include them in Trump JA tracking even though they update daily and are pretty comprehensive. They have a way better track record than Rasmussen but are given the cold shoulder.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I could see these results happening on election day. They're pretty realistic as to how the election could actually turn out. Trump will get 45% of the vote at a minimum.

[Alben Barkley]

More realistic than the PA quinnipiac poll

Holy crap will you stop unskewing every poll that is unfavorable to your god king? Quinnipiac isn't some trash internal.

Lol. Trump is not my king. Now if you want to believe that Biden will carry PA by 11 it is your own problem.
Even if Quinnipiac is not doing internal polls their polls tend to have a clear pro dem bias (Nelson and Gillum winning by healthy margins)

“Biden will definitely win PA by 11 in over a year” and “A current poll from a respectable pollster shows Biden up in PA by 11” are different statements. The former is a prediction that nobody is seriously making, so railing against it as you seem obsessed with doing is to rail against a strawman. The latter is merely an objective fact, and if you are arguing against objective facts... well, that’s another story entirely, but not exactly uncommon among Trumpers.

The FACT is that poll SUGGESTS that Biden — who has a healthy lead against Trump in the majority of national polls and is the Democratic frontrunner —  is CURRENTLY up big in the state he was born and raised in and has already won comfortably twice on a presidential ticket, and that does not like Trump according to multiple Morning Consult polls. Not exactly an enormous shocker there, whether you like it or not. Even if it’s off by more than a few points, he’s still up big. You can do all the mental gymnastics you like, come up with all the alternative facts you need to convince yourself that Biden is ackshually losing in Pennsylvania, but you can never change the real facts.

[Frenchrepublican]

More realistic than the PA quinnipiac poll

Holy crap will you stop unskewing every poll that is unfavorable to your god king? Quinnipiac isn't some trash internal.

Lol. Trump is not my king. Now if you want to believe that Biden will carry PA by 11 it is your own problem.
Even if Quinnipiac is not doing internal polls their polls tend to have a clear pro dem bias (Nelson and Gillum winning by healthy margins)

“Biden will definitely win PA by 11 in over a year” and “A current poll from a respectable pollster shows Biden up in PA by 11” are different statements. The former is a prediction that nobody is seriously making, so railing against it as you seem obsessed with doing is to rail against a strawman. The latter is merely an objective fact, and if you are arguing against objective facts... well, that’s another story entirely, but not exactly uncommon among Trumpers.

The FACT is that poll SUGGESTS that Biden — who has a healthy lead against Trump in the majority of national polls and is the Democratic frontrunner —  is CURRENTLY up big in the state he was born and raised in and has already won comfortably twice on a presidential ticket, and that does not like Trump according to multiple Morning Consult polls. Not exactly an enormous shocker there, whether you like it or not. Even if it’s off by more than a few points, he’s still up big. You can do all the mental gymnastics you like, come up with all the alternative facts you need to convince yourself that Biden is ackshually losing in Pennsylvania, but you can never change the real facts.

You are probably one of the dumbest people on this forum, I never said that Trump is favoured in PA, if the election were held now I would guess that Biden wins it 52/47, besides you are talking about real facts, but I have a big new for you, a poll result is not necessarily predictive of the election result, it seems that you are worshiping polls, especially when they fit your narrative, but keep in mind that a poll is based on a sample and if this sample is unrepresentative of the electorate your poll will end up wrong