Rate MN-07

[HarrisonL]

Some may consider this a bold prediction, Colin Peterson is going to be defeated with Trump on the ballot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tilt D, all the Republicans currently running are weak C-listers at best IIRC.

[😥]

With Peterson Tilt D
Without Peterson Safe R

[TWTown]

Think many people are underestimating Peterson here, he literally brings home the bank to many farmers in this district. I don't see how he falls unless he retires or he changes his voting record.

[One Term Floridian]

Think many people are underestimating Peterson here, he literally brings home the bank to many farmers in this district. I don't see how he falls unless he retires or he changes his voting record.

Exactly. There'll be a ton of Trump/Peterson voters here, just like there were a ton of GOP/Peterson voters last year statewide

[LiberalDem19]

On one hand,
1. Peterson's margins have narrowed in every election since 2012
2. 2018 was the first time ever that his margin was to the right of the national vote. Harry Enten said that when you take out the races in which only one party was on the ballot, you get a D+7 environment, so if the House vote is D+3 or more in 2020, he could narrowly hang on. But there's a good chance it's closer to 50-50, with Trump supporters coming out.

On the other hand,
1. He's finally in the majority again and will have a chance to get stuff done/be effective.
2. The trade war is devastating SW Minnesota and they might be willing to vote for a conservative Democrat like Peterson
3. No one serious has stepped up to challenge him

Probably a tossup that Tilts R. The diehard Trumpers will vote against him, so it depends on where reluctant Trump 2016 supporters go. And I don't know the answer to that this far out.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tilt D, all the Republicans currently running are weak C-listers at best IIRC.

OMG. Candidate quality is completely overrated. Petersen has done worse each election since 2012, and this district voted Republican for MN-Sen special and MN Gov even with double digit dem wins. He is not going to make it.

[IceSpear]

Safe R. Only reason Peterson survived last year is because the NRCC triaged the race and it was a D+9 year to boot. He was one of the Democrats who did worse than in 2016!

This. There's no way in hell Peterson is going to outrun the Democratic nominee by 30+ points again, lol.

[IceSpear]

Think many people are underestimating Peterson here, he literally brings home the bank to many farmers in this district. I don't see how he falls unless he retires or he changes his voting record.

Exactly. There'll be a ton of Trump/Peterson voters here, just like there were a ton of GOP/Peterson voters last year statewide

Yeah, no doubt there will be a ton. As many as in 2016? I highly doubt it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt Democratic, with Biden on the ticket, Dems can keep most of the Districts that was won in 2018 wave year. Dems should have 230 House Members.

[lfromnj]

Think many people are underestimating Peterson here, he literally brings home the bank to many farmers in this district. I don't see how he falls unless he retires or he changes his voting record.

Exactly. There'll be a ton of Trump/Peterson voters here, just like there were a ton of GOP/Peterson voters last year statewide

Of course's there will be a ton of Trump/Peterson voters but the question is are there enough?

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe R. Only reason Peterson survived last year is because the NRCC triaged the race and it was a D+9 year to boot. He was one of the Democrats who did worse than in 2016!

This. There's no way in hell Peterson is going to outrun the Democratic nominee by 30+ points again, lol.

Trump will probably not carry this district by that much in 2020. Heck, he may not even carry it by 20. If that is the case, Peterson can win.

It is very unlikely because in a such case Trump is losing by double digits

[morgieb]

Safe R. Only reason Peterson survived last year is because the NRCC triaged the race and it was a D+9 year to boot. He was one of the Democrats who did worse than in 2016!

This. There's no way in hell Peterson is going to outrun the Democratic nominee by 30+ points again, lol.

Trump will probably not carry this district by that much in 2020. Heck, he may not even carry it by 20. If that is the case, Peterson can win.

He carried it by 30 in 2016, I can't see how a largely rural seat will swing 10 points barring a recession.

Obviously a recession would probably see Peterson hang on, but is one likely before 2020?