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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
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Author Topic: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map  (Read 2802 times)
swamiG
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« Reply #50 on: May 30, 2019, 05:26:11 pm »

after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

The night Gwen Graham narrowly lost to him in the primary is when I knew the FL Demsí dry spell would live on for at least another 4 years. Only later when the inaccurate af polling gave Gillum big leads for literally months did I give him the edge. Heíd lose decisively in a rematch with DeSantis and maybe even by double digits against Rubio
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #51 on: May 30, 2019, 05:55:42 pm »

Is Gillum going to federal prison if this investigation continues to drag out & expand ? I believe it's safe to say his political career (or whatever is left of it) is OVER.

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UncleSam
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« Reply #52 on: May 31, 2019, 11:54:42 pm »

What Iím still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).
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swamiG
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« Reply #53 on: June 01, 2019, 02:47:35 am »

What Iím still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

I still lose sleep over this.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #54 on: June 01, 2019, 03:38:20 am »

Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.

Did Crist win in 2006 despite the D wave and Nelson winning reelection in a landslide thanks to his and Jeb Bush's popularity or was Davis also a weak candidate?
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #55 on: June 01, 2019, 03:45:04 am »

Yeah, this is an embarrassment. 2018 was definitely winnable, but the Democrats decided to put up a candidate, despite good intentions, out of step with the state. Graham would have won, Levine probably as well. And those pointing out Nelson lost as well, this is true, but he didn't run a strong campaign and Rick Scott, I admit, did so. 2022 will be much tougher, especially if a Democrat is sitting in the Oval Office. 2026 can go either way, obviously too soon to tell.

Agreed, and tbh I think Gillum pulled Nelson down tbh. Had the Democrats won the governor's mansion, Nelson would still be a senator imo (he actually had a higher percentage of the vote than Gillum did).

after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

The night Gwen Graham narrowly lost to him in the primary is when I knew the FL Demsí dry spell would live on for at least another 4 years.

Same. I think I was one of the few people on here that correctly predicted that Gillum would lose. I actually thought Abrams was more likely to win in GA than Gillum was in FL (at the end Abrams did "worse" in terms of raw share of the vote but at anyrate ran a very a good campaign unlike Gillum who I felt would lose).
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Fuzzy Stands With Angel Moms and Sanchez!
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« Reply #56 on: June 01, 2019, 07:09:12 am »

Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.

Did Crist win in 2006 despite the D wave and Nelson winning reelection in a landslide thanks to his and Jeb Bush's popularity or was Davis also a weak candidate?

Crist was, very much, a moderate Republican who had strong support with law enforcement.  He was NOT the "conservative" candidate, and had a surprisingly moderate record as Attorney General.

Davis was a weak candidate, and Nelson won because Katherine Harris was a far weaker candidate against Nelson.  Harris was almost disavowed by Jeb Bush, who was trying to step away from the fact that Harris was the person who was responsible for certifying W as the winner of FL while serving as Secretary of State.

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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #57 on: June 01, 2019, 10:34:55 am »

FL Dems need to unite behind FL Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) in 2026.

1.) Trump will be long gone by then.

2.) No US Senate contest.

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swamiG
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« Reply #58 on: June 01, 2019, 11:43:32 am »

after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

The night Gwen Graham narrowly lost to him in the primary is when I knew the FL Demsí dry spell would live on for at least another 4 years.

Same. I think I was one of the few people on here that correctly predicted that Gillum would lose. I actually thought Abrams was more likely to win in GA than Gillum was in FL (at the end Abrams did "worse" in terms of raw share of the vote but at anyrate ran a very a good campaign unlike Gillum who I felt would lose).

I wasn't that active on Atlas back then, but if I recall correctly after Gillum won the primary folks here were generally saying that this would boost DeSantis. It was only after polling almost always had Gillum in the lead did people here end up giving Gillum the major edge.
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decunningham2
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« Reply #59 on: June 01, 2019, 03:09:14 pm »

Is Gillum going to federal prison if this investigation continues to drag out & expand ? I believe it's safe to say his political career (or whatever is left of it) is OVER.



Even if he wasn't going to jail it's pretty apparent Democrats should never nominate him for any office ever again
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mcmikk
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« Reply #60 on: June 17, 2019, 10:42:49 pm »

Something Iíve always wondered is: why do the FL Dems in particular suck so bad? FL Dems constantly choke in elections and I always hear how much they suck, but is there a particular reason why they do so much worse than other swing state Democratic parties. Anyone care to inform me?
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Beet
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« Reply #61 on: June 17, 2019, 10:47:11 pm »

They just got really unlucky.
In 2018, their candidate would have won but got hit with the FBI bug right before the election.
In 2014, they had a good candidate but it was just a heavy GOP year.
In 2010, same thing -- good candidate, heavy GOP year. Would have won a neutral year.
In 2006, the GOP candidate ran very close to the center and so overcame a bad year.
In 2002, it was the Bush era.

Generally Im not a fan of idpol, but Florida is one area where the Dems have not done a good job of Hispanic outreach compared to the GOP, they barely have any Latinx electeds & almost never run them for statewide office. They are also losing WWC who used to vote for them. Finally, they are losing seniors who used to vote for them (the greatest generation turning into boomers). With these 3 triple blows it's just enough to keep the GOP in the majority statewide.
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Skunk
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« Reply #62 on: June 17, 2019, 10:49:28 pm »

Something Iíve always wondered is: why do the FL Dems in particular suck so bad? FL Dems constantly choke in elections and I always hear how much they suck, but is there a particular reason why they do so much worse than other swing state Democratic parties. Anyone care to inform me?
I imagine it just has to do with the Democratic base in Florida being predominantly young voters and Hispanics, obviously this could describe other states too but the fact that Cubans in Florida are considerably more Republican-leaning than Hispanic voters in other states and the fact that youth turnout can be cancelled out by the growing retiree population, means that Florida Democrats are able to keep it close but can't quite seem to win.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #63 on: June 21, 2019, 12:28:21 pm »

What Iím still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

I still lose sleep over this.

Yeah, this. Really makes me wonder: WAS the Bradley effect a thing in that race?
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #64 on: June 21, 2019, 02:33:54 pm »

What Iím still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

Gillum actually ran a campaign, Nelson didn't.

Unfortunately, DeSantis was a good campaigner too. Adam Putnam would've lost, thanks to not being Trumpy-enough.

Oh, and Gwen Graham probably would've figured out how to do worse than 0.4 given how lackluster her primary campaign was.

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Young Conservative
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« Reply #65 on: June 23, 2019, 01:03:52 pm »

The dry spell will probably last through 2026 at least. Desantis is on track to win by double digits in 2022, especially if it is a Dem midterm.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #66 on: June 23, 2019, 03:38:31 pm »

What Iím still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

I still lose sleep over this.

Yeah, this. Really makes me wonder: WAS the Bradley effect a thing in that race?

Considering how close the race was, I'd say no.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #67 on: June 23, 2019, 05:09:37 pm »
« Edited: June 23, 2019, 05:36:19 pm by Edgar Suit Larry »

Something Iíve always wondered is: why do the FL Dems in particular suck so bad? FL Dems constantly choke in elections and I always hear how much they suck, but is there a particular reason why they do so much worse than other swing state Democratic parties. Anyone care to inform me?
I imagine it just has to do with the Democratic base in Florida being predominantly young voters and Hispanics, obviously this could describe other states too but the fact that Cubans in Florida are considerably more Republican-leaning than Hispanic voters in other states and the fact that youth turnout can be cancelled out by the growing retiree population, means that Florida Democrats are able to keep it close but can't quite seem to win.
So two things, right? The demographics just arenít as good as they look on paper. The state is aging faster than many other states. This used to not be a problem but now many pensioners think theyíre competing with younger people for federal and state benefits. The other thing being that a lot of people who are ďHispanicsĒ arenít really Hispanics. A lot of Cubans have blonde hair and blue eyes and they generally look Italian. I was talking with an old coworker on Facebook about this the other day.


My guess is that if the issues in Venezuela become a problem for the GOP, or that God forbid, there are fewer people retiring or even reaching old age, that probably  Florida will start voting somewhere between Colorado or New Jersey.

Or it could start voting like Ohio or Missouri if everyone just starts living forever and/or there is this shift in the Mestizo community that itís their personal responsibility to ďmarry upĒ or whatever and maybe their Grandchildren will pass as ďwhiteĒ. Those kids can pretend to be like Elizabeth Warren and just say they are 1/8 or 1/16 American Indian or something.

Maybe this sounds like I donít like old people or that Iím racist or whatever but Florida just sucks. I love the climate and thereís a lot to do but the average IQ down there is in the low 90s. But yeah.

 I guess saying that most old people, especially boomers, are selfish and that some people donít care that they are discriminated against or claim that they are and they like it when they are not is wrong.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #68 on: June 23, 2019, 10:02:12 pm »

The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote
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swamiG
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« Reply #69 on: June 23, 2019, 10:16:18 pm »

The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote

Bahahahaha... kill me now
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #70 on: June 24, 2019, 11:32:42 am »

The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote

Bahahahaha... kill me now

Why don't we just have the governor serve one eight year term and then appoint his successor?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #71 on: June 24, 2019, 02:24:27 pm »

The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote


2038: Exactly tie, but the coin flip results into a Republican win.

2042: Florida is flooded due to climate change and finally turned blue.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #72 on: June 24, 2019, 03:31:32 pm »

after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

Is Gillum going to federal prison if this investigation continues to drag out & expand ? I believe it's safe to say his political career (or whatever is left of it) is OVER.

Even if he wasn't going to jail it's pretty apparent Democrats should never nominate him for any office ever again

Trust me, we will. We're just that stupid enough here in the Florida Democratic Party.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #73 on: June 24, 2019, 05:20:07 pm »

What Iím still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

I still lose sleep over this.

Yeah, this. Really makes me wonder: WAS the Bradley effect a thing in that race?

Considering how close the race was, I'd say no.

The polls weren't close
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #74 on: June 25, 2019, 08:17:37 am »

The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote


2038: Exactly tie, but the coin flip results into a Republican win.

2042: Florida is flooded due to climate change and finally turned blue.

Best. answers. ever.
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