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  Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
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Author Topic: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map  (Read 2500 times)
swamiG
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« on: May 16, 2019, 03:33:42 pm »

Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:



What a national embarrassment.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2019, 03:39:22 pm »

Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:



What a national embarrassment.

The FL Dems died with then-FL Governor Lawton Chiles (D) on December 12th, 1998 & they haven't been the same ever since.

With FL Governor Ronald DeSantis (R) likely to win reelection very overwhelmingly (he might crack 60%) in 2022, I doubt the FL Dems will ever get the FL Governor's Mansion back in 2026 if Fried runs for it.

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swamiG
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2019, 03:42:05 pm »
« Edited: May 16, 2019, 03:50:12 pm by swamiG »

Lol I highly doubt DeSantis wins by that much. Agreed that Fried might be their best shot, even though we'd need to wait till 2026
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Left-Libertarian
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2019, 04:17:34 pm »
« Edited: May 16, 2019, 04:21:09 pm by Left-Libertarian »

Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006. Here's the map of states that have elected more than one Democratic governor (I counted re-elections as a second election).

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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2019, 04:19:02 pm »

Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:



What a national embarrassment.

The FL Dems died with then-FL Governor Lawton Chiles (D) on December 12th, 1998 & they haven't been the same ever since.

With FL Governor Ronald DeSantis (R) likely to win reelection very overwhelmingly (he might crack 60%) in 2022, I doubt the FL Dems will ever get the FL Governor's Mansion back in 2026 if Fried runs for it.



60% is a bit too much.
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swamiG
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2019, 04:28:08 pm »

Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006. Here's the map of states that have elected more than one Democratic governor (I counted re-elections as a second election).



Funny how the media holds Ohio and Florida to perennial swing state status even though they're essentially one-party states at the local level. Difficult to say which state will elect a Democratic governor first, I'd say Ohio because no reasonable betting man should ever bet on the travesty known as the FL Dems
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2019, 04:31:57 pm »

Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006. Here's the map of states that have elected more than one Democratic governor (I counted re-elections as a second election).



Funny how the media holds Ohio and Florida to perennial swing state status even though they're essentially one-party states at the local level. Difficult to say which state will elect a Democratic governor first, I'd say Ohio because no reasonable betting man should ever bet on the travesty known as the FL Dems

Concerning Ohio, the big problem is that the D bench has been destroyed over the past decade, besides Mike DeWine will likely run again in 2022 and will be reelected. 
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swamiG
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2019, 05:04:52 pm »

The next viable nominee would have to be a congressman, I think. Like Tim Ryan if he doesn't get elected elected President (LOL)
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2019, 05:15:19 pm »

I should note that the NV Dems had a similar problem until Sisolak finally ended 20 years of GOP dominance in Carson City in 2018.

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Big Don Blankenship
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2019, 08:02:31 pm »

Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:



What a national embarrassment.

It looks like 1998 was the last hurrah of the old Dixiecrat South, with Dems winning a lot of the Deep South.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2019, 08:14:44 pm »

60% is probably too much for DeSantis '22 if Trump is still president, but I can see it as possible with a Democrat.
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swamiG
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2019, 08:58:38 pm »

Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:



What a national embarrassment.

It looks like 1998 was the last hurrah of the old Dixiecrat South, with Dems winning a lot of the Deep South.

This year will test whether itís gone for good
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2019, 11:33:23 pm »

In fairness, two of those years were GOP waves [which Florida was LEFT of the nation on!], three of those years had the GOP Pres have certain ties to the state that gave them an advantage inherently.

Truthfully the only one to be ashamed of is 2006, that was a Dem Wave and the vote was more than +3 R...pretty sure Crist won that won bigly.

And I guess 2018 was a disappointment...but it was 30,000 votes from breaking the +3R ceiling (in contrast, Nelson ran behind by double digits compared to the Senate vote)
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swamiG
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2019, 12:20:23 am »

In fairness, two of those years were GOP waves [which Florida was LEFT of the nation on!], three of those years had the GOP Pres have certain ties to the state that gave them an advantage inherently.

Truthfully the only one to be ashamed of is 2006, that was a Dem Wave and the vote was more than +3 R...pretty sure Crist won that won bigly.

And I guess 2018 was a disappointment...but it was 30,000 votes from breaking the +3R ceiling (in contrast, Nelson ran behind by double digits compared to the Senate vote)

Nope. No more excuses from the supposed swing state party whose only statewide position is the Almighty Agricultural Commissioner position.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2019, 06:57:22 am »

Big question is whether it's time for the Dems to leave FL & move to NC, TX, etc., ?
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Thunder98
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2019, 11:11:10 pm »
« Edited: May 18, 2019, 10:01:31 am by Thunder98 »

The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

2002: Jeb! +12.8%

2006: Crist +7.1%

2010: Scott +1.2%

2014: Scott +1%

2018: DeSantis +0.4%

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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2019, 09:42:20 am »

Jeb was the last FL Governor to win by double digits in 2002.
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Fuzzy Stands With Sanchez!
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« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2019, 10:41:58 am »

Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.  Rick Scott never enjoyed personal popularity, and defeated Nelson only because Nelson was old, tired, ran a poor campaign, and whose personal popularity died with those folks who crossed party lines to vote for him in Brevard and Indian River Counties back in the day.

DeSantis is making all the right moves, and is proving to be exceptionally popular.  I believe he may well win re-election with over 55% of the vote, and I believe he will cause serious challengers to opt out of the 2022 FL Governor's race.  (Such a result would not be a reflection of where FL is at as much as personal approval of the candidates.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2019, 10:57:10 am »

Why did McBride do so well in North Florida?
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gracile
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« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2019, 11:08:39 am »

Why did McBride do so well in North Florida?

Probably because the ancestral Dems hadn't completely left the party at the down-ballot level yet.
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SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2019, 11:38:03 am »

I'm a big DeSantis guy and had been since at least 2014/2015, but its too early to coronate him for a 2nd term.

I hope he continues to do well and continues to be a smart and pragmatic conservative, but I don't like making self-assured statements about political figures until after the fact.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #21 on: May 18, 2019, 12:49:46 pm »

Yeah, this is an embarrassment. 2018 was definitely winnable, but the Democrats decided to put up a candidate, despite good intentions, out of step with the state. Graham would have won, Levine probably as well. And those pointing out Nelson lost as well, this is true, but he didn't run a strong campaign and Rick Scott, I admit, did so. 2022 will be much tougher, especially if a Democrat is sitting in the Oval Office. 2026 can go either way, obviously too soon to tell.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #22 on: May 18, 2019, 01:20:02 pm »

Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.  Rick Scott never enjoyed personal popularity, and defeated Nelson only because Nelson was old, tired, ran a poor campaign, and whose personal popularity died with those folks who crossed party lines to vote for him in Brevard and Indian River Counties back in the day.

DeSantis is making all the right moves, and is proving to be exceptionally popular.  I believe he may well win re-election with over 55% of the vote, and I believe he will cause serious challengers to opt out of the 2022 FL Governor's race.  (Such a result would not be a reflection of where FL is at as much as personal approval of the candidates.

Concerning the 2018 senatorial race, Scott saw a surge in term of popularity after 2016 and it was clearly a major factor in the loss of Nelson
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swamiG
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« Reply #23 on: May 18, 2019, 01:36:56 pm »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot
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TDAS04
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« Reply #24 on: May 18, 2019, 02:26:42 pm »

Why did McBride do so well in North Florida?

Probably because the ancestral Dems hadn't completely left the party at the down-ballot level yet.

Makes sense, but Buddy McKay only won the typically liberal North Florida counties four years earlier.
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