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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
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Author Topic: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map  (Read 2504 times)
swamiG
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« Reply #25 on: May 18, 2019, 05:29:29 pm »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

This.  If Trump is still in office, SD and a TX open seat will flip (Abbott would get a 3rd term, but only by 5 or so), but DeSantis will be completely fine barring Great Depression 2.0.

Yeah. Isn't that sad?
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #26 on: May 18, 2019, 09:40:33 pm »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).
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swamiG
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« Reply #27 on: May 18, 2019, 09:57:38 pm »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).

He only beat a lackluster candidate by 13 points last year though. I think the days of Republicans winning TX by 20+ points are over.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #28 on: May 19, 2019, 08:12:49 am »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).

He only beat a lackluster candidate by 13 points last year though. I think the days of Republicans winning TX by 20+ points are over.

Valdez did better than Obama
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #29 on: May 19, 2019, 09:26:06 am »

Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006.
Taft was not running in 2006.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #30 on: May 19, 2019, 09:27:19 am »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).

He only beat a lackluster candidate by 13 points last year though. I think the days of Republicans winning TX by 20+ points are over.

Valdez did better than Obama

You can blame the Cruz & O'Rourke US Senate contest for that.
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here2view
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« Reply #31 on: May 19, 2019, 09:33:52 am »

It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #32 on: May 19, 2019, 09:39:56 am »

It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

Also won two in Oklahoma. And Tennessee. And Arkansas. Not to mention three in Kentucky and Kansas.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #33 on: May 19, 2019, 12:07:19 pm »

It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

Also won two in Oklahoma. And Tennessee. And Arkansas. Not to mention three in Kentucky and Kansas.

The AR Dems since the Clinton's left on December 12th, 1992:

1994: Tucker (D)
2006: Bebee (D)
2010: Bebee (D)

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Left-Libertarian
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« Reply #34 on: May 19, 2019, 03:29:37 pm »

Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006.
Taft was not running in 2006.

That's what I get for speaking without looking it up. Yep, the 2006 GOP nominee was Ken Blackwell and they were coming off of Taft and his 5% approval rating.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #35 on: May 19, 2019, 03:31:47 pm »

Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006.
Taft was not running in 2006.

That's what I get for speaking without looking it up. Yep, the 2006 GOP nominee was Ken Blackwell and they were coming off of Taft and his 5% approval rating.

I've heard that Blackwell really wanted to run for the OH Governor's Residence in 1998, but the OH GOP pushed him to go for OH Secretary of State instead.
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swamiG
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« Reply #36 on: May 19, 2019, 04:36:39 pm »

It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over
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sjoyce
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« Reply #37 on: May 19, 2019, 06:40:35 pm »

Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over

At least we haven't elected a Democrat who turned out to be a Klansman. Or a sex criminal.
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swamiG
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« Reply #38 on: May 19, 2019, 10:20:55 pm »

Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over

At least we haven't elected a Democrat who turned out to be a Klansman. Or a sex criminal.

Ralph Northam is not a Klansman. And I'm not going to defend Fairfax for what he's being accused of, but the LG of VA is nothing but a ribbon cutter. Either way, these two men won't have a political future after 2021.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #39 on: May 19, 2019, 11:27:11 pm »

It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

It wasn't D+8.6 at the gubernatorial level though, it was D+2.1...and anything less than D+3 just means the GOP holds on per usual.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #40 on: May 19, 2019, 11:29:40 pm »

It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over

The Minnesota DFL is DFLINO. The Farmer part is completely gone and the labor part is quickly following.
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Fuzzy Stands With Sanchez!
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« Reply #41 on: May 27, 2019, 09:08:31 am »

Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.  Rick Scott never enjoyed personal popularity, and defeated Nelson only because Nelson was old, tired, ran a poor campaign, and whose personal popularity died with those folks who crossed party lines to vote for him in Brevard and Indian River Counties back in the day.

DeSantis is making all the right moves, and is proving to be exceptionally popular.  I believe he may well win re-election with over 55% of the vote, and I believe he will cause serious challengers to opt out of the 2022 FL Governor's race.  (Such a result would not be a reflection of where FL is at as much as personal approval of the candidates.

Concerning the 2018 senatorial race, Scott saw a surge in term of popularity after 2016 and it was clearly a major factor in the loss of Nelson

Yes, he did.  There were major hurricanes that hit the state in 2016 and 2017, which gave Scott the opportunity to exhibit his crisis leadership skills, and he exhibited them well.  Such opportunities caused Scott to be able to show himself as a compassionate and decisive leader, unifying people behind his leadership, and giving him, in the minds of even voters that don't like him, a redeeming quality.

Scott projected a calm, steady, but firm hand on the wheel during Florida's hurricanes, a time which gives Florida's Governor a lot of media face time.  It put him on stronger footing versus Nelson, who ran a poor campaign, and appeared to be not just old, but tired as well (and the victim of some really bad plastic surgery).  Supporters of Biden ought to take heed of Nelson's fate when considering "electability" as Nelson is the same age as Biden.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #42 on: May 27, 2019, 05:31:24 pm »

Debbie Stabenow had many of the same problems Nelson had and she won. Nelson would have won handily if Scott wasnít his opponent. People are always making it out to be that Scott ďgot luckyĒ. Scott was a popular governor known for his leadership after hurricanes and mass shootings, while Nelson was a faceless senator only known for being the Florida senator who wasnít Marco Rubio.

Had he lost, Scott would have just joined the likes of Scott Walker,, Rick Snyder, and Paul LePage as 2010s Republican governors the country wants to forget about. His win however puts him in prime position to go after the presidency in 2024.
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swamiG
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« Reply #43 on: May 28, 2019, 12:00:19 am »

Debbie Stabenow had many of the same problems Nelson had and she won. Nelson would have won handily if Scott wasnít his opponent. People are always making it out to be that Scott ďgot luckyĒ. Scott was a popular governor known for his leadership after hurricanes and mass shootings, while Nelson was a faceless senator only known for being the Florida senator who wasnít Marco Rubio.

Had he lost, Scott would have just joined the likes of Scott Walker,, Rick Snyder, and Paul LePage as 2010s Republican governors the country wants to forget about. His win however puts him in prime position to go after the presidency in 2024.

Agreed. Rick Scott was arguably the star recruit of the NRSC last year and I was very worried that the FL Dems were going to blow Nelsonís seat when he announced.

Now if only I could hear anything more than cricket chirps coming from the DSCC for next year.. We Dems honestly deserve to get owned by Cocaine Mitch until at least 2026 if we canít even convince at least a handful of the 420,069 Dems running for the presidency to pivot and run for senate instead.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #44 on: May 28, 2019, 12:18:26 am »

The problem for the democratic party in Florida for the next couple of cycles is that their bench has been completely wiped out, with only Fried and Stephanie Murphy constituting strong statewide candidates. Patrick Murphy has become a joke and the sheen has worn off Gillum
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ajc0918
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« Reply #45 on: May 28, 2019, 09:12:59 am »

The problem for the democratic party in Florida for the next couple of cycles is that their bench has been completely wiped out, with only Fried and Stephanie Murphy constituting strong statewide candidates. Patrick Murphy has become a joke and the sheen has worn off Gillum

Fried came out of nowhere and won statewide. Dems have a fine bench in the Central Florida Mayors and their congressional delegation.
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« Reply #46 on: May 28, 2019, 10:43:55 am »

The problem for the democratic party in Florida for the next couple of cycles is that their bench has been completely wiped out, with only Fried and Stephanie Murphy constituting strong statewide candidates. Patrick Murphy has become a joke and the sheen has worn off Gillum

Fried came out of nowhere and won statewide. Dems have a fine bench in the Central Florida Mayors and their congressional delegation.

Also, I think the importance of having a "bench" is overrated in general, and especially in Beltway Media and on sites like this one: no one had ever heard of Doug Jones before 2017, and if you look at the background of most current U.S. senators, most were U.S. Reps, mayors, or state legislators before, of which the FL Dems still have plenty.
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swamiG
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« Reply #47 on: May 28, 2019, 01:20:01 pm »

The problem for the democratic party in Florida for the next couple of cycles is that their bench has been completely wiped out, with only Fried and Stephanie Murphy constituting strong statewide candidates. Patrick Murphy has become a joke and the sheen has worn off Gillum

Fried came out of nowhere and won statewide. Dems have a fine bench in the Central Florida Mayors and their congressional delegation.

Also, I think the importance of having a "bench" is overrated in general, and especially in Beltway Media and on sites like this one: no one had ever heard of Doug Jones before 2017, and if you look at the background of most current U.S. senators, most were U.S. Reps, mayors, or state legislators before, of which the FL Dems still have plenty.

Yes. The problem isn't with the "bench." The problem is with this godforsaken state party, has there even been any major restructuring going on with the FL Dems since the humiliation of 2018?
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #48 on: May 28, 2019, 03:56:32 pm »

It might be best for the FL Dems to build the party with FL Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) leading the helm.

I can see her running for the FL Governor's Mansion in 2026 (assuming DeSantis wins the Presidency in 2024), though she'll have go up against Nunez.

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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #49 on: May 30, 2019, 04:37:24 pm »

after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)
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