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August 23, 2019, 10:57:36 am
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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map (search mode)
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Author Topic: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map  (Read 2806 times)
swamiG
Sr. Member
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Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« on: May 16, 2019, 03:33:42 pm »

Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:



What a national embarrassment.
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2019, 03:42:05 pm »
« Edited: May 16, 2019, 03:50:12 pm by swamiG »

Lol I highly doubt DeSantis wins by that much. Agreed that Fried might be their best shot, even though we'd need to wait till 2026
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2019, 04:28:08 pm »

Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006. Here's the map of states that have elected more than one Democratic governor (I counted re-elections as a second election).



Funny how the media holds Ohio and Florida to perennial swing state status even though they're essentially one-party states at the local level. Difficult to say which state will elect a Democratic governor first, I'd say Ohio because no reasonable betting man should ever bet on the travesty known as the FL Dems
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2019, 05:04:52 pm »

The next viable nominee would have to be a congressman, I think. Like Tim Ryan if he doesn't get elected elected President (LOL)
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2019, 08:58:38 pm »

Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:



What a national embarrassment.

It looks like 1998 was the last hurrah of the old Dixiecrat South, with Dems winning a lot of the Deep South.

This year will test whether itís gone for good
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2019, 12:20:23 am »

In fairness, two of those years were GOP waves [which Florida was LEFT of the nation on!], three of those years had the GOP Pres have certain ties to the state that gave them an advantage inherently.

Truthfully the only one to be ashamed of is 2006, that was a Dem Wave and the vote was more than +3 R...pretty sure Crist won that won bigly.

And I guess 2018 was a disappointment...but it was 30,000 votes from breaking the +3R ceiling (in contrast, Nelson ran behind by double digits compared to the Senate vote)

Nope. No more excuses from the supposed swing state party whose only statewide position is the Almighty Agricultural Commissioner position.
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2019, 01:36:56 pm »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2019, 05:29:29 pm »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

This.  If Trump is still in office, SD and a TX open seat will flip (Abbott would get a 3rd term, but only by 5 or so), but DeSantis will be completely fine barring Great Depression 2.0.

Yeah. Isn't that sad?
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2019, 09:57:38 pm »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).

He only beat a lackluster candidate by 13 points last year though. I think the days of Republicans winning TX by 20+ points are over.
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2019, 04:36:39 pm »

It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2019, 10:20:55 pm »

Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over

At least we haven't elected a Democrat who turned out to be a Klansman. Or a sex criminal.

Ralph Northam is not a Klansman. And I'm not going to defend Fairfax for what he's being accused of, but the LG of VA is nothing but a ribbon cutter. Either way, these two men won't have a political future after 2021.
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2019, 12:00:19 am »

Debbie Stabenow had many of the same problems Nelson had and she won. Nelson would have won handily if Scott wasnít his opponent. People are always making it out to be that Scott ďgot luckyĒ. Scott was a popular governor known for his leadership after hurricanes and mass shootings, while Nelson was a faceless senator only known for being the Florida senator who wasnít Marco Rubio.

Had he lost, Scott would have just joined the likes of Scott Walker,, Rick Snyder, and Paul LePage as 2010s Republican governors the country wants to forget about. His win however puts him in prime position to go after the presidency in 2024.

Agreed. Rick Scott was arguably the star recruit of the NRSC last year and I was very worried that the FL Dems were going to blow Nelsonís seat when he announced.

Now if only I could hear anything more than cricket chirps coming from the DSCC for next year.. We Dems honestly deserve to get owned by Cocaine Mitch until at least 2026 if we canít even convince at least a handful of the 420,069 Dems running for the presidency to pivot and run for senate instead.
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2019, 01:20:01 pm »

The problem for the democratic party in Florida for the next couple of cycles is that their bench has been completely wiped out, with only Fried and Stephanie Murphy constituting strong statewide candidates. Patrick Murphy has become a joke and the sheen has worn off Gillum

Fried came out of nowhere and won statewide. Dems have a fine bench in the Central Florida Mayors and their congressional delegation.

Also, I think the importance of having a "bench" is overrated in general, and especially in Beltway Media and on sites like this one: no one had ever heard of Doug Jones before 2017, and if you look at the background of most current U.S. senators, most were U.S. Reps, mayors, or state legislators before, of which the FL Dems still have plenty.

Yes. The problem isn't with the "bench." The problem is with this godforsaken state party, has there even been any major restructuring going on with the FL Dems since the humiliation of 2018?
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2019, 05:26:11 pm »

after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

The night Gwen Graham narrowly lost to him in the primary is when I knew the FL Demsí dry spell would live on for at least another 4 years. Only later when the inaccurate af polling gave Gillum big leads for literally months did I give him the edge. Heíd lose decisively in a rematch with DeSantis and maybe even by double digits against Rubio
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2019, 02:47:35 am »

What Iím still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

I still lose sleep over this.
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2019, 11:43:32 am »

after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

The night Gwen Graham narrowly lost to him in the primary is when I knew the FL Demsí dry spell would live on for at least another 4 years.

Same. I think I was one of the few people on here that correctly predicted that Gillum would lose. I actually thought Abrams was more likely to win in GA than Gillum was in FL (at the end Abrams did "worse" in terms of raw share of the vote but at anyrate ran a very a good campaign unlike Gillum who I felt would lose).

I wasn't that active on Atlas back then, but if I recall correctly after Gillum won the primary folks here were generally saying that this would boost DeSantis. It was only after polling almost always had Gillum in the lead did people here end up giving Gillum the major edge.
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swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

P

« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2019, 10:16:18 pm »

The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote

Bahahahaha... kill me now
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