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  Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map (search mode)
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Author Topic: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map  (Read 2800 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: May 16, 2019, 04:19:02 pm »

Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:



What a national embarrassment.

The FL Dems died with then-FL Governor Lawton Chiles (D) on December 12th, 1998 & they haven't been the same ever since.

With FL Governor Ronald DeSantis (R) likely to win reelection very overwhelmingly (he might crack 60%) in 2022, I doubt the FL Dems will ever get the FL Governor's Mansion back in 2026 if Fried runs for it.



60% is a bit too much.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2019, 04:31:57 pm »

Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006. Here's the map of states that have elected more than one Democratic governor (I counted re-elections as a second election).



Funny how the media holds Ohio and Florida to perennial swing state status even though they're essentially one-party states at the local level. Difficult to say which state will elect a Democratic governor first, I'd say Ohio because no reasonable betting man should ever bet on the travesty known as the FL Dems

Concerning Ohio, the big problem is that the D bench has been destroyed over the past decade, besides Mike DeWine will likely run again in 2022 and will be reelected. 
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2019, 01:20:02 pm »

Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.  Rick Scott never enjoyed personal popularity, and defeated Nelson only because Nelson was old, tired, ran a poor campaign, and whose personal popularity died with those folks who crossed party lines to vote for him in Brevard and Indian River Counties back in the day.

DeSantis is making all the right moves, and is proving to be exceptionally popular.  I believe he may well win re-election with over 55% of the vote, and I believe he will cause serious challengers to opt out of the 2022 FL Governor's race.  (Such a result would not be a reflection of where FL is at as much as personal approval of the candidates.

Concerning the 2018 senatorial race, Scott saw a surge in term of popularity after 2016 and it was clearly a major factor in the loss of Nelson
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2019, 08:12:49 am »

Hell Iím starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).

He only beat a lackluster candidate by 13 points last year though. I think the days of Republicans winning TX by 20+ points are over.

Valdez did better than Obama
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