Rate MN-08
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Poll
Question: Which party has a better chance of winning MN-08?
#1
Safe D
#2
Likely D
#3
Lean D
#4
Tilt D/Tossup
#5
Tilt R/Tossup
#6
Lean R
#7
Likely R
#8
Safe R
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Partisan results

Author Topic: Rate MN-08  (Read 1290 times)
Yang2020
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E: -0.77, S: -2.09

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« on: May 16, 2019, 04:18:43 PM »
Pete Stauber picked up this district by 5.5% in 2018, and Trump won it by 15.6% in 2016.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2019, 04:23:39 PM »
Last time it flipped before 2010 was in 46 to the D's in a R wave year. Its gonna be quite a while once again.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2019, 04:26:16 PM »
Likely R (close to safe).
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JGibson
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2019, 04:39:33 PM »
This is a Likely R race at the moment.
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Esteemed Jimmy
Jimmy7812
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2019, 04:41:40 PM »
Likely R
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2019, 05:03:05 PM »
Safe R

Well, this district is somewhat to the GOP what VA 10th is to Dems, it is gone
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2019, 05:08:10 PM »
Rick Nolan was a fool to let this seat go
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We Live in Black and White
SvenTC
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2019, 05:23:08 PM »
Likely R. The trend is almost insurmountable and Stauber is a rock-solid incumbent. The only thing keeping us even a tiny bit afloat is Duluth.
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ethan2226
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2019, 05:40:26 PM »
Likely R.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2019, 07:21:40 PM »
Quote from: SvenTC on May 16, 2019, 05:23:08 PM
Likely R. The trend is almost insurmountable and Stauber is a rock-solid incumbent. The only thing keeping us even a tiny bit afloat is Duluth.

Yeah, this is far less likely to flip back than the First. It would take a mixture of a D wave, slight WWC bounceback, and a better candidate than Radinovich (who was no pushover) to win this one back.
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Gracile
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2019, 07:23:23 PM »
This one is gone for Dems barring extraordinary circumstances.
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morgieb
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« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2019, 10:05:32 PM »
Probably Safe R. Would require a 2008-esque year for this to be a chance of coming back.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2019, 11:20:53 PM »
Safe R. Democrats need to let this one go.
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HarrisonL
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2019, 11:28:20 AM »
Likely or Safe GOP, going into the next decade we should stop targeting MN-1, 7 and 8. (Peterson will lose in 2020 and MN-7 will be split into two very Republican districts in 2022 redistricting.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2019, 11:43:40 AM »
Lean R, but closer to Likely R than Tilt R
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andjey
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2019, 12:46:46 PM »
Likely R, Closer to Safe R
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TWTown
GhostOfHuey
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2019, 01:02:38 PM »
Margin wise: Lean or Tilt R (The GOP is never going to clean up here with Duluth being at the forefront of the district)

Now, the answer for the main question is Lean R and I won't be shocked if the Democrats redistrict MN-08 to make it more friendly to them.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2019, 10:04:14 PM »
Stauber probably has this, but in the chance that the tarriffs backfire and the mines crash, a moderate DFLer could maybe pull this one off
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2019, 04:52:46 PM »
Stauber is safe and so is Hagedorn.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2019, 09:45:21 PM »
Safe R unless tariff ultra-catastrophe and a #moderate candidate.
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Continential
The Op
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2019, 09:32:39 AM »
Safe or Likely R
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2019, 06:36:18 PM »
Likely R.

Democrats should still contest it.
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cvparty
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« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2019, 06:45:29 PM »
Quote from: bronz4141 on May 22, 2019, 06:36:18 PM
Likely R.

Democrats should still contest it.
nani?
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We Live in Black and White
SvenTC
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2019, 10:36:21 PM »

No use in giving up completely yet, simply because 2020 may yet end up being unexpectedly favorable to us. Still, it should be on the periphery of the seats we target.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #24 on: May 25, 2019, 01:11:45 PM »
Only Lean R for 2020. Going against the grain it was not the Iron Range that brought the Democrats down in this district. It was exurbs and rural red neck counties in the southern half of the district that doomed us holding this seat in 2018 while we had a counter wave.

The voters in Iron Range, while trending GOP, are still fairly enlightened. Unlikely this district will become rock solid Republican up and down the ballot.

Now MN-07, despite Klobuchar winning a thin victory there last year, is likely R. The redneck hicks are going to oust Peterson.
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