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June 18, 2019, 03:42:31 pm
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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  Rate MT-GOV 2020
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Poll
Question: Which party will win Montana's governorship in 2020?
#1Safe D
#2Likely D
#3Lean D
#4Tilt D/Tossup
#5Tilt R/Tossup
#6Lean R
#7Likely R
#8Safe R
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Rate MT-GOV 2020  (Read 610 times)
Yang2020
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« on: May 16, 2019, 04:46:57 pm »

Term limits in Montana prevent popular incumbent Steve Bullock from running again in 2020.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2019, 04:49:57 pm »

Tilt to Lean R. Red state and Tim Fox is a great candidate, but Dems are definitely putting up a fight here.
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swamiG
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2019, 04:59:35 pm »

Definitely Tilt R due to the GOP partisan edge of the state but the Democrats have a fantastic local bench here and will probably make it close
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SvenTC
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2019, 05:34:19 pm »

All I know is that I'm fervently hoping for John Heenan.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2019, 05:50:51 pm »

Wait people think that an open seat in a state Trump won by 20 with a declared statewide officeholder running unopposed in the GOP primary is Tilt R?

Just wanted to confirm that lol. Trump is a pretty good fit for Montana and will carry the state easily, I donít see how Dems hold this without the advantage of incumbency.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2019, 05:56:23 pm »

Lean R
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TML
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2019, 06:00:03 pm »

Wait people think that an open seat in a state Trump won by 20 with a declared statewide officeholder running unopposed in the GOP primary is Tilt R?

Just wanted to confirm that lol. Trump is a pretty good fit for Montana and will carry the state easily, I donít see how Dems hold this without the advantage of incumbency.

Why don't you ask governors Bob Brown and Rick Hill about this?
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2019, 07:04:26 pm »

Lean R as of now

Two problems for dems, they will have to find a good candidate of course but the second problem is that they will have have to hope that Biden doesnít lose the state by double digits
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2019, 07:21:51 pm »

Likely GOP.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2019, 06:34:26 pm »

Between lean and likely Republican, voted likely.
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Esteemedô Speaker Jimmy7812
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2019, 06:34:54 pm »

Lean R
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Deeply Disturbing
jk2020
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2019, 10:06:07 pm »

Gonna have to agree with the Lean R ratings.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
olawakandi
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2019, 03:44:43 pm »

Dems will pickup KY and the GOP will pickup MT, as IN, LA, MS, MO, NH, NC, ND, VT, WA and WVA will remain in same party control
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2019, 03:30:27 pm »

Dems will pickup KY and the GOP will pickup MT, as IN, LA, MS, MO, NH, NC, ND, VT, WA and WVA will remain in same party control

We'll find out soon enough.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2019, 09:05:29 pm »

Safe R, obviously. Trump's going to win Montana in a landslide, and polarization (which doesn't apply to Kentucky because Bevin is unpopular) guarantees that Daines and Fox will get 99.9% of the votes he gets, at the very least.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
olawakandi
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2019, 09:07:37 pm »

There is no redistricting in this state, so it's a lost cause, Fox is gonna win.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2019, 09:21:25 pm »
« Edited: May 20, 2019, 09:24:32 pm by IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ »

Wait people think that an open seat in a state Trump won by 20 with a declared statewide officeholder running unopposed in the GOP primary is Tilt R?

Just wanted to confirm that lol. Trump is a pretty good fit for Montana and will carry the state easily, I donít see how Dems hold this without the advantage of incumbency.

This is patently false as two statewide officeholders have already filed on the Republican side (Tim Fox and Corey Stapleton) and Greg Gianforte may very well enter the race as well. If youíre mocking other users's predictions, you should at least get your facts straight.

Also not sure what exactly makes Trump such a good fit for Montana, but okay.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2019, 08:35:31 am »

This one is tough. Probably tilt/lean R, but depends on the candidates. MT is Dem friendly in statewide races and I wouldn't be shocked to see another Dem gov elected. Hopefully Dems can recruit a strong contender to keep the seat.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2019, 09:27:04 am »

Wait people think that an open seat in a state Trump won by 20 with a declared statewide officeholder running unopposed in the GOP primary is Tilt R?

Just wanted to confirm that lol. Trump is a pretty good fit for Montana and will carry the state easily, I donít see how Dems hold this without the advantage of incumbency.

This is patently false as two statewide officeholders have already filed on the Republican side (Tim Fox and Corey Stapleton) and Greg Gianforte may very well enter the race as well. If youíre mocking other users's predictions, you should at least get your facts straight.

Also not sure what exactly makes Trump such a good fit for Montana, but okay.
Sorry winning by 21 and causing MT to be 23 points to the right of the NPV isnít a good fit to you? MT was 8 to the right of the country in 2008 and 15 in 2012. I donít see an argument that Trump did anything but extremely well in MT as holding much water.

Stapleton is a joke and wonít present much threat in the primary but youíre right, Ďunopposedí was inaccurate. Fox is going to win easily though, and in the general Iíll be surprised if any Democrat comes within 10 of him.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2019, 01:07:35 pm »

Lean/Likely R. Lean R to give benefit to the incumbent party, and because Bullock is decently popular.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2019, 01:13:21 pm »

Pure toss-up for now.

The state elected two popular Democratic governors in a row and if Democrats put up a good candidate (hopefully Mike Cooney), they can pull it off again. I hope Steve Bullock jumps into the senate race if he doesn't get the nomination for president, what might benefit the gubernatorial candidate as well.
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