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June 17, 2019, 09:41:01 pm
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  KY-GOV: Who wins Dem primary?
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Question: Huh
#1Rocky Adkins  
#2Andy Beshear  
#3Adam Edelen  
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Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: KY-GOV: Who wins Dem primary?  (Read 570 times)
Unbeatable Titan Ralph Abraham
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« on: May 17, 2019, 05:35:19 pm »

KYSportsRadio host Matt Jones described this race as a three-way tossup.
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swamiG
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« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2019, 06:16:21 pm »

Almost positive that Baby Beshear wins the primary. The county maps are sure to be interesting, however
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xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2019, 06:22:28 pm »

Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2019, 06:29:20 pm »

Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.

No.

Beshear wins the primary, he beats Bevin by 2.

Ky. Democrats have a large bench, but the state is too Republican and nationalized to win. They can beat Barr and Massie next year.

McConnell is aging, but he runs for a final term in 2026.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2019, 06:46:43 pm »

Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.

No.

Beshear wins the primary, he beats Bevin by 2.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2019, 06:57:06 pm »

Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.

No.

Beshear wins the primary, he beats Bevin by 2.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.
Admittedly, this is not even close to the worst of Bronz.
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swamiG
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2019, 06:57:15 pm »

Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.

No.

Beshear wins the primary, he beats Bevin by 2.

Ky. Democrats have a large bench, but the state is too Republican and nationalized to win. They can beat Barr and Massie next year.

McConnell is aging, but he runs for a final term in 2026.

What in God's green earth makes you think that Massie could lose..
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2019, 07:54:16 pm »

Baby Beshear because his Daddy was KY Governor & held statewide office multiple times.
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Glowfish
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2019, 08:07:17 pm »

Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.

No.

Beshear wins the primary, he beats Bevin by 2.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.
Admittedly, this is not even close to the worst of Bronz.

Is Bronz trying to be olawakandi?
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bronz4141
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2019, 08:42:36 pm »

Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.

No.

Beshear wins the primary, he beats Bevin by 2.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.
Admittedly, this is not even close to the worst of Bronz.

Is Bronz trying to be olawakandi?

Ky. Democrats can win if they are focused.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2019, 02:41:48 pm »

Beshear
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MB
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2019, 02:48:52 pm »

Rocky
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Skunk
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2019, 02:55:03 pm »

I'd guess Beshear but honestly would not surprise me if Adkins upset.
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KYWildman
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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2019, 11:27:13 pm »

Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.

No.

Beshear wins the primary, he beats Bevin by 2.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.

Give it a rest already. You know nothing about Kentucky. Stop smugly pretending that you do, it's cringeworthy.

Your logic: "Bevin is deeply reviled by the vast majority of Kentucky voters and has been behind by wide margins to Democrats in every poll, therefore he is DEFINITELY going to win big because he beat a bad candidate in a year with abysmal turnout that favored the GOP (though Beshear won statewide at the same time anyway!), even though the dynamics of the race this year could not be more different, because lol stupid Kentucky hicks or something."

It's just painfully bad reasoning.

Yes, it's POSSIBLE that I'm wrong and Bevin is going to hold on (at least I ADMIT that instead of smugly dismissing everyone who disagrees with me), but all the signs right now are far from in his favor. Literally the only one that is in his favor is the state's presidential partisan lean, but Kentucky state/gubernatorial politics have NEVER had a strong correlation to Kentucky presidential/senatorial politics. Anyone who knows the first thing about the state's politics knows this.

In the midst of a massive GOP wave and in between two landslide losses for Obama in the state, Steve BESHEAR won the Governor's Mansion by a bigger landslide than either of Obama's opponents beat him. If you went solely by partisan lean, that should not have been possible. Ernie Fletcher (the last GOP Kentucky governor and a one-termer) should also have inevitably won re-election because he won the state by 11 points, more than Bevin did! And Bevin is less popular than Fletcher ever was!

Acting like Bevin is inevitable is just plain ignorant. Period.
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2019, 11:41:53 pm »

Waiting for Edelen to pull a Whitmer (rip El-Sayed campaign...rip) and drown out the better choices just by money alone
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xingkerui
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« Reply #15 on: May 21, 2019, 12:09:19 am »

Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.

No.

Beshear wins the primary, he beats Bevin by 2.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.

Give it a rest already. You know nothing about Kentucky. Stop smugly pretending that you do, it's cringeworthy.

Your logic: "Bevin is deeply reviled by the vast majority of Kentucky voters and has been behind by wide margins to Democrats in every poll, therefore he is DEFINITELY going to win big because he beat a bad candidate in a year with abysmal turnout that favored the GOP (though Beshear won statewide at the same time anyway!), even though the dynamics of the race this year could not be more different, because lol stupid Kentucky hicks or something."

It's just painfully bad reasoning.

Yes, it's POSSIBLE that I'm wrong and Bevin is going to hold on (at least I ADMIT that instead of smugly dismissing everyone who disagrees with me), but all the signs right now are far from in his favor. Literally the only one that is in his favor is the state's presidential partisan lean, but Kentucky state/gubernatorial politics have NEVER had a strong correlation to Kentucky presidential/senatorial politics. Anyone who knows the first thing about the state's politics knows this.

In the midst of a massive GOP wave and in between two landslide losses for Obama in the state, Steve BESHEAR won the Governor's Mansion by a bigger landslide than either of Obama's opponents beat him. If you went solely by partisan lean, that should not have been possible. Ernie Fletcher (the last GOP Kentucky governor and a one-termer) should also have inevitably won re-election because he won the state by 11 points, more than Bevin did! And Bevin is less popular than Fletcher ever was!

Acting like Bevin is inevitable is just plain ignorant. Period.

Well, it's not like you've demonstrated that you put much stock in what I say about my own home state, Washington. I never said anything about "Kentucky hicks", and I despise Bevin, so it's certainly not the case that I want him to win. I've just seen this before. A red state has an election that many consider competitive because the Republican is disliked, people say "the dynamics of this state/race are different" and polls show a close race. Then the Republican wins by a surprisingly comfortable margin. The majority of the time, that's what happens, even in good years for Democrats. Most exceptions to this are pretty extreme cases (Roy Moore, David Vitter, etc.) I am factoring in Bevin's unpopularity. I'm not predicting he'll win by 30 or even 15. I'm sure his performance will be embarrassing for a Republican in Kentucky, but I've heard the argument about downballot races being less partisan than presidential races a million times. Less partisan =/= not partisan at all. And I don't see what a popular governor winning eight years ago has to do with the current political climate.

Look, I get that you're very invested in this race and want a governor who's not a national embarrassment. If by some chance I'm wrong and Bevin does lose, I'll happily eat crow, but until then, I'm not getting my hopes up. I've believed in voters doing the right thing and gotten burned as a result too many times to count.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2019, 07:44:48 am »

County maps will be delicious. But I say Beshear overpowers Rocky and Edelen by pure name recognition.

Beshear Wins 36/34/30
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2019, 08:08:50 am »

Beshear. Though Adkins, with his base in problematic for Democrats Eastern Kentucky, seems better GE candidate to me...
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Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2019, 12:30:08 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2019, 03:06:12 pm by Prolocutor Bagel23 »

Beshear is who I think wins the primary and then gets smashed by Bevin, and I want him to win to. I like Adkins too and would be happy if he won the primary as well, but not a fan of Edelen, obviously would still back him in a GE.
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MAGugh
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2019, 02:21:03 pm »

Edelen.
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Unbeatable Titan Ralph Abraham
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2019, 02:24:52 pm »

Edelen.
Edelen's chance of winning the primary dropped to 0%
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2019, 02:26:33 pm »

I voted for Beshear by accident. I believe Edelen will win.
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Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2019, 02:27:03 pm »

I voted for Beshear by accident. I believe Edelen will win.

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

I voted for Beshear by accident. I believe Edelen will win, because he will win.

FTFY
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2019, 02:31:17 pm »

I voted for Beshear by accident. I believe Edelen will win.

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

I voted for Beshear by accident. I believe Edelen will win, because he will win.

FTFY
Andy is a daddy's boy, not very appealing to the average Kentuckian
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